By Bill Finley
After 34 prep races that assigned points to contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby, there's nothing left to do but get them into the starting gate at Churchill Downs May 7. There may be a defection or two before Derby Day, but for now, the field appears set. Adding eight more horses to what has been our weekly Top 12, we run down the entire field, ranking them not by points, but by how we think they stack up against the competition.
1. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (KY). T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15, 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 130
Nyquist certainly has a lot to prove before he can be called another Seattle Slew, but it's uncanny have many things the two champs have in common. Slew is the last undefeated, 2-year-old champion to race in the GI Kentucky Derby. Slew was six-for-six coming into the 1977 Derby. Nyquist is seven-for-seven. Slew had won three Grade I races; Nyquist has won four. Like the Reddam Racing colorbearer, he represented the first crop of a sire (Bold Reasoning). Like Nyquist, Seattle Slew had a hard time winning over the critics, most notably Andrew Beyer and jockey-turned-TV-commentator Eddie Arcaro.
2. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
O-Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. B-Joseph B. Murphy (KY). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 126
It's difficult to predict who will be the second choice in the GI Kentucky Derby behind Nyquist (Uncle Mo), but Exaggerator has as good a case as anyone. He had been a bit of a disappointment coming into the GI Santa Anita Derby, but responded on that day with the kind of explosive effort that always seemed to be within his capabilities. It may have been the best race by a 3-year-old so far this year. Did he move up in the slop that day? Will he “bounce” off such a big effort? Having already finished behind Nyquist three times, can he beat that horse? Those are questions he'll have to answer Derby Day.
3. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen.
Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner
KY Derby Points: 151
There's nothing particularly sexy about this horse. He's never been favored in his five career starts and has never gone off at odds lower than 7-2. He just wins. Gun Runner has lost just once in his life and that was in the slop at Churchill last year in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. The question with him is the level of competition he faced in Louisiana. You might also argue that he hasn't necessarily proven that he's better than Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) since that colt had so much trouble in the GII Veterans Ford Risen Star S. and the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby.
4. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4 Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
KY Derby Points: 80
He's the mystery horse in the GI Kentucky Derby and the horse whose bandwagon emptied out in record time. Mohaymen was being hyped like few horses have prior to the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, but after he ran a lackluster fourth people couldn't dump him fast enough. Did he just have an off day at Gulfstream or was that race a true indicator of his talent level? Horses have won the Derby before after throwing in clunkers in their last preps. Remember Thunder Gulch (Gulch)?
5. BRODY'S CAUSE (c, Giant's Causeway—Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5
O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr & Petaluma (KY). T-Dale Romans.
Sales: $350,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GI Blue Grass, KEE, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equine Line PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Giant's Causeway
KY Derby Points: 114
Whatever happened in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby happened. Brody's Cause didn't run a step that day but may have shown his true colors when winning the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. in an impressive effort. His three best races (also the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity and a third-place finish in the GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile) have all come at Keeneland, so he's getting a reputation as a horse for that course. But he is also one-for-one at Churchill, having broken his maiden there in September.
6. DESTIN (c, Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7
O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC. B-James C. Weigel & Taylor Made Stallions Inc (KY). T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis, TAM, Feb. 13
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 51
You knew this would happen sooner or later. With trainers so bent on giving their horses as much time as possible between races we have the first serious Derby contender in eons to come into the race off an eight-week layoff. It's a strategy that is working for a lot of major stables, but will it work in a race that is as unique as the Derby? This isn't a five-horse, mile-and-a-sixteenth race, after all. It has happened at least once in history, as 1917 winner Exterminator was making his first start of the year in the Derby and had last raced July 26, 1916.
7. OUTWORK (c, Uncle Mo—Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8
O/B-Repole Stable (KY). T-Todd Pletcher
Last Start: 1st, GI Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 120
The last winner of the GI Wood Memorial to come back and win the GI Kentucky Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus (Mr. Prospector) in 2000 and most think the slump will continue this year, as Outwork hasn't gotten many people excited. He won the Wood in a dreadfully slow 1:52.92 and beat a maiden in Trojan Nation (Street Cry {Ire}). Despite the time, he got a 1 1/2 on the Thoro-Graph sheets, a number that puts him in the ballpark with a lot of top Derby contenders.
8. CREATOR (c, Tapit—Morena {Per}, by Privately Held)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: Unlisted
Sales history: $440,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
O-WinStar Farm LLC. B-Mt. Brilliant Broodmares I LLC (KY). T-Steve Asmussen
Last Start: 1st, Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 110
This has been the year where a lot of horses came from nowhere and Creator is no exception. It took him six starts to break his maiden and he didn't do so until Feb. 27. Forty-nine days later he won the GI Arkansas Derby. He's come a long way in a short period of time, but may need to step it up another notch in order to beat the top guns in the Derby. Along with Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), he gives trainer Steve Asmussen, who has yet to win the Derby, the two top threats.
9. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 2nd, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA; 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit
KY Derby Points: 84
We're so used to Bob Baffert having the best GI Kentucky Derby threat coming out of California that's it's odd to see him with a horse who just can't seem to get over the hump of late. This one was second behind 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy) in the GII San Felipe S. and was second again in the GI Santa Anita Derby. But Exaggerator (Curlin) beat him so soundly that day that the race made the stock of Mor Spirit fall. Looks like he will be Baffert's only Derby horse as Cupid (Tapit) has been withdrawn from Derby consideration and Collected (City Zip) doesn't have enough points.
10. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10
O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm (KY). T-Tom Amoss.
Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 32
What will Mo Tom do if he ever has a clean trip? We still don't know the answer, as he experienced nightmarish journeys around the Fair Grounds oval in the GII Veterans Ford Risen Star S. and the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Somewhat lucky to even make it to the Derby, he's number 20 on the points list and didn't get into the field until the announcement came out that Cupid (Tapit) was passing the race. He's certainly due for some good luck, as he's well-bred and has a smart trainer behind him in Tom Amoss. You never know.
11. MY MAN SAM (c, Trappe Shot–Lauren Byrd, by Arch)
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: 11
O-Sheep Pond Partners, Newport Stables LLC & Jay W. Bligh. B-Jay W. Bligh (KY). T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 2nd, GI Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 40
Things haven't exactly worked out as trainer Chad Brown had probably hoped when it comes to his GI Kentucky Derby contenders, but in 'TDN Rising Star' My Man Sam, he does have an interesting contender. In a year where late-bloomers have flourished, he's another who came from nowhere. He didn't break his maiden until Jan. 31 and didn't make his stakes debut until the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. But that's where he made a statement, closing from the 14 post to finish second. Probably not quite good enough, but he's heading in the right direction.
12. WHITMORE (g, Pleasantly Perfect–Melody's Spirit, by Scat Daddy)
O-Robert V. LaPenta, Harry T. Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stable. B-John Liviakis (KY). T-Ron Moquett
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Last Start: 3rd, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 44
Whitmore might be ranked lower in other places, but we like his consistency. He's never won beyond six furlongs and he's lost his last three, but he shows up. He was second in the GIII Southwest, second in the GII Rebel S. and third in the GI Arkansas Derby. For him, that might be as good as it gets, but how often have we seen a horse like this finish third or fourth at a big price? Whitmore gets Victor Espinoza, who is trying to become the first jockey in history to win three-straight editions of the Derby.
13. DANZING CANDY (c, Twirling Candy—Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer)
O-Halo Farms, Jim & Diane Bashor. B-Halo Farms (KY). T-Clifford W. Sise, Jr.
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Last Start: 4th, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 60
Can you throw out 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy's poor showing in the GI Santa Anita Derby? Jockey Mike Smith said he simply couldn't control his mount that day and said the slop and goo at Santa Anita bothered the colt. He compared the situation to when Palace Malice (Curlin) ran off in the 2013 GI Kentucky Derby only to come back and win the GI Belmont S. “He's really fast and that's his game,” Smith said. “He's never going to go out there in 24. But if I can get him to relax and then if he responds the way I know he can when I call on him we'll have a big chance in the Derby.”
14. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (g, Mineshaft">Mineshaft—Uchitel, by Afleet Alex)
O-Samuel F. Henderson. B- Branch Equine, LLC (KY). T-Donnie K. Von Hemel
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Sales history: $72,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 2nd, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15; 1st Clever Trevor S., RP, Nov. 6
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 50
Suddenbreakingnews is another blue-collar type who usually shows up. The late-runner was a bit of a disappointment when fifth in the GII Rebel S., but rebounded with a second-place finish in the GI Arkansas Derby. The difference between the two races was the pace, as it was much faster in the Arkansas Derby. He probably can't win the GI Kentucky Derby, but his best shot will come if they fly up front early.
15. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini—Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)
O/B-Shadwell Stable (KY). T-Chad Brown
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Last Start: 5th, GI Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 5
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 50
'TDN Rising Star Shagaf's stock fell dramatically when he was fifth in the GI Wood Memorial. The connections are hoping he didn't like the mud that day. His critics will tell you he simply isn't that fast…or at least fast enough to beat the upper-echelon 3-year-olds. Interesting to see trainer Chad Brown's main man, Irad Ortiz Jr., go with fellow 'Rising Star' My Man Sam (Trappe Shot). Shagaf has never gone off at odds higher than 19-10 in his life. Now, he will be 30-1, 40-1 in the Derby.
16. MAJESTO (r, Tiznow–Unacloud, by Unaccounted For)
O-Grupo 7C Racing Stable. B-Diamond A. Racing Corp (KY). T-Gustavo Delgado
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Sales history: $300,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 2nd, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 40
The good news is that Majesto was second in the GI Twinspires Florida Derby, which meant he had enough points to get into the GI Kentucky Derby. The bad news is that the only race he has won is a Feb. 27 maiden at Gulfstream. It looks like the Florida Derby field fell apart after Mohaymen (Tapit) stubbed his toe and Nyquist (Uncle Mo) put away the field…just about anyone could have run second. It is very hard to imagine him draped in roses May 7.
17. TOM'S READY (c, More Than Ready–Goodbye Stranger, by Broad Brush)
O-GMB Racing. B-Blackstone Farm LLC (PA). T-Dallas Stewart
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Sales history: $145,000 RNA Wlg '13 KEENOV; $145,000 Ylg '14 FTNAUG
Last Start: 2nd, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 44
Though he has more points than Mo Tom (Uncle Mo), he's widely regarded as the second-best horse from the stable of Gayle and Tom Benson, the owners of the New Orleans Saints and the NBA New Orleans Pelicans. Tom's Ready has a habit of running second, which he's done four times from nine starts. His only win was a maiden at Churchill last September. He ran dismally in the slop in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., so may need a dry track.
18. LANI (c, Tapit—Heavenly Romance {Jpn}, by Sunday Silence)
O-Yoko Maeda. B-North Hills Co. Ltd (KY). T-Mikio Matsunaga
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Last Start: 1st, GII UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, Cattleya Sho, TOK, Nov. 28
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 100
Lani is a wonderfully bred son of Tapit who has won in Japan and in Dubai. The problem is that everything that has come out of the GII UAE Derby in the past has appeared to be in over their heads in the GI Kentucky Derby. And this year's UAE Derby looked particularly weak. He figures to get very little respect come Derby Week.
19. OSCAR NOMINATED (c, Kitten's Joy—Devine Actress, by Theatrical {Ire})
O-Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey. B-Mrs. Jerry Amerman (KY). T-Michael Maker
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Last Start: 1st, GIII, Spiral S., TP, Apr. 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st, Black Gold Overnight S., FG, Feb. 27
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Oscar Nominated
KY Derby Points: 50
They get no more enthusiastic than owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, which explains why this guy will be supplemented into the Derby field at the cost of 200 grand. That's an awful lot to pay for a horse that likely has zero chance, but Ken Ramsey wants to win the Derby perhaps more than anyone on the planet. In some sense, they have nothing to lose as they claimed Oscar Nominated for $75,000 and he earned $282,000 winning the GIII Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral S….so he's paid his way into the race.
20. TROJAN NATION (c, Street Cry {Ire}–Storm Song, by Summer Squall)
O-Julie Gilbert & Dr. Aaron Sones. B-Dr. Aaron Sones (KY). T-Patrick Gallagher
Apr. 15 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
Last Start: 2nd, GI Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
KY Derby Points: 40
The maiden. Ok, so it hasn't happened in a long time, but Trojan Nation would not be the first maiden to win the GI Kentucky Derby. Three others have done it: Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919) and Brokers Tip (1933). Nine maidens have contested the Derby since 1945 and none have finished better than eighth. Obviously, for him, this won't be easy.
Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.
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