Kentucky Value Sires

In reaching the penultimate instalment of our series, once again we are obliged by the steepening commercial gradient to combine different intakes--this time, those who have now launched between four and six juvenile crops--to ensure a suitably competitive podium. For by this stage of their career the majority of Kentucky start-ups will already have packed their bags for regional or overseas programs. One or two are still barely clinging on, their books plummeting, but overall we're now looking at those few who have bravely consolidated to the brink of inclusion...

This can be a terrifying business. Here we are, for the first time in this series, assessing stallions that have at least put some sophomores through the starting gate. And already, commercially, the game appears to be up for many. So much so, in fact, that to give adequate competitive depth to our value podium, we're going to combine the consecutive intakes who were in 2021 respectively contesting the second- and third-crop championships. Here's just one example of how ruthless the market is. I won't name the stallion, because he...

Even last year, when doing so much to fortify breeders through the uncertainties of the pandemic, stallion farms appeared to price their rookies to squeeze the usual juice from the commercial market's greatest addiction. That was fair enough. Nowadays farm accountants can bank only on the most fleeting of vogues in drawing up a business plan for stallion acquisitions. And nor can we sensibly expect any slack now, pending the arrival of first foals and then a debut at the weanling sales next fall. A stallion has to be in...

Today we come to a final group of stallions whose development we're treating separately, before wrapping up our series with a look at those survivors who made it across the highwire and can be grouped together as "Established Sires." (After which we'll also be taking a tour of regional stallions.) In the last couple of instalments, we've observed the Kentucky talent pool in each intake rapidly drying up, so that our review of third- and fourth-crop options respectively encompassed 18 and just six stallions. And we are left with a...

What a tough game this is. You only get to show the first card in your hand before virtually the whole pile of chips is distributed. One or two players gather up their winnings, whooping triumphantly, and suddenly your own hopes of staying in the game--your hopes of a viable stud career in Kentucky--depend exorbitantly on the next card. Generally speaking, it doesn't matter if you turn out to have had a whole sheaf of aces farther into your hand. By the time you can turn those over, there will...

This is the second half of the latest instalment in our ongoing series examining stallion options for the new breeding season, featuring sires about to launch their third crop of juveniles. The first part, dealing with the likes of American Pharoah and Constitution, can be read here.  We wrapped up yesterday with the first two of three horses retired to Lane's End after filling the frame in an epic race for the GI Whitney S. in 2015. The third, Tonalist (Tapit--Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony), has somehow always seemed to...

It's now or never, guys! The deeper we go into our survey of Kentucky covering options for 2021, the fewer stallions remain standing. And those we reach today, about to launch a third crop of juveniles, have entered a decisive stage of their climb. Two or three are ascending confidently toward the next ridge; a handful are clinging tenaciously to a ledge; but many are now slithering unhappily down through the scree. Several have already disappeared into regional or overseas programs. For now, the leading Bluegrass farms are persevering with...

This is the second half of the latest instalment in our ongoing survey of covering options for the new breeding season. The first part can be read here. UPSTART (Flatter--Party Silks, by Touch Gold) was cleverly named and I think him a very plausible type, likely to rise pretty quickly through the ranks. Certainly there were more than enough "nouveaux riches" among his first juveniles--only Not This Time exceeded his 19 winners (from 54 starters)--for him to be pegged at $10,000 by Airdrie. His principal earner was Reinvestment Risk, who...

As we all know, the more a stallion has to prove, the more the market indulges him. As each intake shows more of its hand, however, breeders become progressively more nervous of young sires disproving judgements that are themselves typically more concerned with the anticipation of demand at the sales, than of any potency they may (or may not) be able to recycle on the track. In this third instalment of our survey, then, we begin our descent of the slippery slope with the first group to offer a hint...

Thursday, Chris McGrath covered the first half of the Kentucky stallions with first weanlings. Click here to read about Omaha Beach, Vino Rosso, Mitole, Audible, Catholic Boy and Yoshida. Part II appears below. Unusually enough, this intake includes a third Grade I winner on both dirt and grass in WORLD OF TROUBLE (Kantharos--Meets Expectations by Valid Expectations), held at $15,000 by Hill 'n' Dale. This was an unusually efficient machine for the chaotic environment of the sprint division. His only defeat in his final eight starts measured by the neck...

So now we come to a group who will typically, at this stage of their careers, find themselves clinging by their fingertips to the commercial precipice--even as the agents and pinhookers press down ruthlessly with their boots. Yes, any breeder using these stallions this spring will at least have some valid evidence with which to evaluate what tends, in many cases, to be a dwindling fee: a first group of sophomores in 2019, backed up by the most precocious juveniles of their second crop. These, nonetheless, should by any sensible...

After surveying the four intakes since, each still safely immune from judgement on the track itself, today we finally reach the first group of stallions who have actually tested their ability to replicate the talent that first earned them--however marginally, in some cases--a place at stud. Their first juveniles, last year, at least permitted some initial response to any erosion of their reputations, through the notoriously jittery and impressionable consensus of the yearling market. Yet there are few more instructive indices of the odds against them than the contrast between...