The TDN Derby 12

It may only be early February, but Kentucky Derby prep season has started to heat up, and at least one horse is on fire. Mohaymen (Tapit) scored a dazzling win in last Saturday's GII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream, the most important prep run so far this year. In fact, the race was so good he has moved to the No. 1 spot on the TDN's Top 12 list.  The third horse on the list, Mor Spirit (Eskendereya) will make his 3-year-old debut Saturday at Santa Anita in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S., a race that should give some added definition to the California-based group of Derby contenders. Throughout the long process that leads to the GI Kentucky Derby, the TDN will keep you on top of the news when it comes to the nation's premier three year olds.

1. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GII Holy Bull S, GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Andrew Caulfield on Mohaymen
Nyquist has gotten bumped off the top spot in our TDN Derby Top 12 list, which may not seem fair since he's never lost and has yet to start this year. But it's impossible not to have Mohaymen on top after his electrifying win in the GII Holy Bull. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has called this one the best Kentucky Derby prospect he has ever had, and Mohaymen has more than lived up to the hype. “We were very confident going into this race, but I think he showed us more than we actually anticipated,” Shadwell's U.S. vice president and general manager Rick Nichols said of the Holy Bull. The Holy Bull was a perfect prep in that not only did Mohaymen win, it didn't look like the race took anything out of him. “He's got such an efficient way of going,” Nichols addedd. “He wasn't blowing at all after the race. He didn't have a hard race. The jockey never had to ask him for anything. He did it on his own.”

2. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 yrl '14 KEESEP; $180,000 wnlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31
Next Start: GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15
Andrew Caulfield on Nyquist
Poor Nyquist, he never gets any respect. He goes undefeated as a 2-year-old and wins a championship, but is overshadowed by Songbird (Medaglia d'Oro). Now he's playing second fiddle to Mohaymen. Those two could have a showdown in the GI Florida Derby, which is on the schedule for both. To a lot of people, he's also got to prove that he can go a mile-and-a-quarter, something people doubt because sire Uncle Mo seemed to be more of a miler type. Uncle Mo's trainer Todd Pletcher doesn't think the 10 furlongs is going to be an issues for the Mos. “[Owner] Mike Repole and I talked about this a lot, I felt like Uncle Mo would run a mile and-an-eighth to a mile-and-a-quarter,” Pletcher said. “Unfortunately, we never had him physically in perfect shape when we had those opportunities. I think his offspring is going to stretch out fine.” None of these questions will be answered in Nyquist's next start, the seven-furlong GII San Vicente.

3. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Next Start: GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 6
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit
We'll know more about Mor Spirit after Saturday's GIII Robert B. Lewis S., his first start of the year. “This is when you start heading to the deeper end of the pool,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “They start separating themselves now.” Speed figure handicappers will likely want to see a faster race out of Mor Spirit than his previous tries as he won the GI Los Alamitos Futurity with a mere 88 Beyer. He was also second in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club, a performance that now looks even better since third-place finisher Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) came out of that race to win the GIII LeComte S.

4. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
O-Big Chief Racing. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GIII Delta Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Saratoga Special, SAR, Aug. 16
Next Start: GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15
Every time you talk to trainer Keith Desormeaux he is overwhelmed with enthusiasm about this colt, who is just eight days away from a big test against Nyquist in the GII San Vicente. But, since that race is at seven furlongs and doesn't involve any Kentucky Derby points, it remains to be seen how cranked up the connections of both colts will have their horses for the assignment. His major win came in the GIII Delta Jackpot, which looks even better now that second-place finisher Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull) has come back to win the GIII Withers S.

5. AIROFORCE (c, Colonel John—Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee)
O-John Oxley. B-Stewart M. Madison (Ky). T-Mark Casse.
Sales history: $350,000 2yo '15 OBSAPR; $20,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st, GII KY Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Trainer Mark Casse was originally going to head to Tampa Bay Downs with his top Derby threat, but is now eyeing the GII Risen Star at Fair Grounds. He changed his plans after the colt returned from a work “full of mucous.” Casse reports that all is now well. “He's training like a superstar,” he said. “He's like a different horse again.” When asked if the setback would compromise Airoforce's chances in the Kentucky Derby, Casse replied: “I'm not at all worried. This happened in January. If we were having this conversation at the end of February I would be really worried.”

6. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (c, Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)
O-St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stable. B-Oakbrook Farm (Ky). T-Dominick Schettino.
Sales history: $575,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 2nd, Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 30
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
How good is Greenpointcrusader, a horse that looked terrific when winning the GI Champagne and less-than-terrific when seventh in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile? We got the answer in the GII Holy Bull, where he was second. He's a good horse, but not as good as Mohaymen. Greenpointcrusader turned in what might have normally been a winning effort, but ran into a monster in Kiaran McLaughlin's red-hot son of Tapit. Trainer Dominick Schettino has said he wants just one more prep for his horse before the Derby and that it will likely be in the GII Louisiana Derby.

7. AWESOME BANNER (c, Awesome of Course—Miranda Stands, by Zamindar)
O/B-Jacks Or Better Farm, Inc. T-Stanley Gold
Last Start: 1st, GII Swale S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Andrew Caulfield on Awesome Banner
Want to buy a Kentucky Derby contender? Trainer Stanley Gold freely admits that GII Swale winner Awesome Banner is for sale and said the price is $1.5 million. For that you'd be buying a very fast horse, but one that might not be any more than a sprinter. He's looked super winning the Swale and the GIII Hutcheson, both sprints. The big test for him will come next in the GII Fountain of Youth, run at a mile-and-a-sixteenth. “Can he go that far? We'll see,” Gold said. “There aren't any sprints out there for him to run in for some time, so unless you want to give him some 'R & R,' we really don't have much choice other than to try a race like the Fountain of Youth. You either go on and try a big step like this or sit on the bench.” If he wins the Fountain of Youth, count on the price tag rising.

8. COLLECTED (c, City Zip—Helena Bay {GB}, by Johannesburg)
O-Speedway Stable LLC. B-Runnymede Farm Inc & Peter J. Callahan (Ky). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $170,000 2yo '15 OBSMAR; $150,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 9
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Trainer Bob Baffert is clearly trying to build some stamina into the son of City Zip as his last two workouts have been at six and seven furlongs. Though the colt has already won around two turns, his pedigree suggests distance limitations. If he fails on the road to the Derby, he still could have a big future on the grass as was second in the GIII Cecil B. DeMille on the lawn last year at Del Mar.

9. BRODY'S CAUSE (c, Giant's Causeway—Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)
O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr & Petaluma (Ky). T-Dale Romans.
Sales: $350,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31
Next Start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Trainer Dale Romans is really taking his time with Brody's Cause as his first 2016 start is penciled in for the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby and he's had just three moderate breezes so far this year. He will need to improve to win the Kentucky Derby, but it's likely that he will as he's a Giant's Causeway and trainer Dale Romans does his best work with 3-year-olds and not 2-year-olds. That he's already a Grade I winner (the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland) speaks volumes about his class.

10. CHERRY WINE (c, Paddy O'Prado–C.S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song)
O/B-Pacella Racing, Frank L. Jones Jr., Frank Shoop. T-Dale Romans.
Last Start: 1st, Allowance Race, GP, Jan. 9
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
An exciting newcomer to the TDN's Top 12 list, Cherry Wine could develop into a major player on the Triple Crown trail. It took him five starts to break his maiden, but when he did so he did it with authority. He won a maiden special weight in the fall at Churchill Downs by 9 1/4 lengths and then beat a good field in a Gulfstream allowance by six lengths. He'll get his feet held to the fire next time out when going in the Fountain of Youth, which is shaping up as tremendous race.

11. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini–Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)
O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 1st, Allowance Race, GP, Jan. 29
Next Start: GIII Gotham, AQU, Mar. 5
You have to respect the connections (Shadwell-Chad Brown) and this horse's breeding. Some even have this horse in the top one or two on their Derby lists, but that seems like a stretch considering his claim to fame is an allowance win at Gulfstream. He's leaving Florida because there's no point running him there against fellow Shadwell stalwart Mohaymen. With the hype he's getting, expect him to be the favorite in the GIII Gotham, which will be his stakes debut.

12. LET'S MEET IN RIO (c, Flatter–Rio Carnival, by Storm Cat)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Bob Baffert
Last Start: 2nd, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 9
Next Start: GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 6
The Robert B. Lewis will be an interesting test for this horse, who snuck up on a lot of people when closing with a rush to finish second behind stablemate Collected in the Sham. That was a visually impressive race, but he only got a 79 Beyer number for the effort. On The Beyers, he's among the slower horses in this race. He's also got to deal with his more highly regarded stablemate, Mor Spirit. We'll find out a lot about this horse Saturday.

Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.

ON THE BUBBLE:
Conquest Big E (Tapit): He's no doubt better than the horse that finished a lackluster fourth in the GII Holy Bull, but that poor showing was enough to knock him out of the TDN Top 12.

Discreetness (Discreet Cat): Scored a narrow victory in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn last out for his second straight stakes win. Class and distance limitations are questions yet to be answered.

Dolphus (Lookin at Lucky): Because he's a half-brother to Rachel Alexandra, he might be getting more attention than he deserves. But with a recent two-turn allowance win at the Fair Grounds, he's shown enough to make one think he can handle stakes company.

Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): Another who has dropped out of the Top 12. He didn't have a very good trip in the GIII Withers, but it's not hard not to jump off his bandwagon after he was fourth as an odds-on favorite.

Gift Box (Twirling Candy): Third in the GII Remsen for Chad Brown, he's had just two slow half-mile works this year so it may be a while before we see him in entries.

Lani (Tapit): Well-bred Japanese import is eyeing the GII UAE Derby and, afterwards, connections will decide on possible Kentucky Derby run.

Mo Tom (Uncle Mo): After a solid third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.–which is looking like a serious key race–he scored a decisive win in the GIII LeComte S. Could be a major player on New Orleans route to Churchill Downs.

Rally Cry (Uncle Mo): Was third in a Gulfstream allowance behind Shagaf, who has now made it into the Top 12. May not have won that day, but had a terrible trip and is one to keep any eye on for the Pletcher stable.

Smokey Image (Southern Image): Might be nothing better than a horse who can win in California-bred company. Might be the next California Chrome. Is six-for-six lifetime and passed a big test when winning around two turns for the first time in the Cal Cup Derby. Connections are eyeing GII San Felipe.

Swipe (Birdstone): Time could be running out for the runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, who had a chip taken out of his left ankle after the Breeders' Cup and has yet to have a work this year. Trainer Keith Desormeaux admits “we're cutting it close.”

Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull): After his win in the GIII Withers, he probably deserves to be in Top 12, but can't put him there since connections say they likely will pass on Derby to point for GI Haskell.

Zulu (Bernardini): Colt is two-for-two for Pletcher, and could be that stable's best hope for a serious Derby contender. Hard to get too excited since he's never gone around two turns or tried stakes company. GII Fountain of Youth is next.

Visit the TDN Derby Top 12 site for additional photos, news, race video and more!