The TDN Top 12

Bill Finley brings you the latest installment of the TDN Top 12, the dozen most likely horses to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May and compete for GI Kentucky Derby glory. Champion juvenile Nyquist (Uncle Mo) landed Santa Anita's GII San Vicente S. in his sophomore bow, while new shooter Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft) staked his claim for the Run for the Roses with a solid display in the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park. Find out where they're ranked and who's 'On the Bubble' below.

1. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)

O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.

Sales history: $2,200,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GII Holy Bull S, GP, Jan. 30

Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Remsen, AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua, AQU, Nov. 4

Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27

Andrew Caulfield on Mohaymen

After an ultra-impressive win by Mohaymen (Tapit) in the GII Holy Bull, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin had to come up with a schedule for his sensational 3-year-old. While many trainers in his situation prefer the less-is-more approach to getting to the GI Kentucky Derby, McLaughlin isn't afraid to race this horse. That's why he's slated to go in both the GII Fountain of Youth and the GI Florida Derby.

“It is a great program when you consider from the (GII) Remsen to the Holy Bull is 60 days, then there are four weeks to the Fountain of Youth, then five weeks to the Florida Derby and another five weeks to the Kentucky Derby,” the trainer said. “He is a very sound, talented young 3-year-old and I don't think racing too often at this stage is a problem.”

McLaughlin, like everyone else, was blown away by Mohaymen's performance in the Holy Bull.

“It looked like he would be on the lead,” he said. “I told Junior (Alvarado) if he breaks well and is on the lead don't take anything away from him that comes easy. He didn't break real sharp. He was in between horses and behind and I was a little nervous on the first turn. But he was super impressive. It was very impressive for him to squeeze between them down the backside and he never hit him turning for home and he drew off. Yes, it was a 'wow' race and it was hard to anticipate that. We've never had a horse this good at this time in his life.”

The Fountain of Youth will be loaded with talent, but, right now, it looks like Mohaymen could be unstoppable.

2. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill

Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 yrl '14 KEESEP; $180,000 wnlg '13 KEENOV.

Last Start: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1^st, GI Front Runner, SA, Sept. 26; 1^st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1^st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8

Next Start: GI Florida Derby, GP, April 2

Andrew Caulfield on Nyquist

The GI Florida Derby could actually be more exciting than the Kentucky Derby itself as it is slated to feature the Top 2 in the TDN's Derby list in Nyquist (Uncle Mo) and Mohaymen (Tapit) and may be the type of horse-versus-horse showdown that is so captivating. Last year's 2-year-old champion returned in fine form Monday in the San Vicente, winning comfortably after facing a bid at the top of the stretch from a quality horse in Exaggerator (Curlin). It was an impressive effort in that he had plenty left in the seven-furlong event after setting the pace in quick fractions of 22.50 and 44.49.

“I'm really excited about meeting that horse (Mohaymen) in the Florida Derby,” Nyquist's trainer Doug O'Neill said. “We think we can beat him and I'm sure they think they can beat us. Whoever gets beat will have a chance to make some adjustments and get ready for a rematch in the Kentucky Derby.”

When asked if he minded that Nyquist doesn't seem to get the respect usually reserved for an undefeated champion, O'Neill replied: “Not at all. I'd rather fly under the radar than not. I just want to keep flying. It makes me nervous when smart, educated handicappers think your horse can't lose.”

3. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)

O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.

Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19

Next Start: Undecided

Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit

Mor Spirit could go in the GII San Felipe next, but trainer Bob Baffert reports he won't make a decision until next week and after the horse has had his next work. With Collected (City Zip) finishing off the board in the GIII Southwest Stakes and Let's Meet in Rio (Flatter) running fifth in the GIII Robert B. Lewis, Baffert may be resting all his Derby hopes on Mor Spirit. Keep an eye on how Mo Tom does in the GII Risen Star Saturday, as he finished third, a head behind runner-up Mor Spirit in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

4. AIROFORCE (c, Colonel John—Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee)

O-John Oxley. B-Stewart M. Madison (Ky). T-Mark Casse.

Sales history: $350,000 2yo '15 OBSAPR; $20,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT.

Last Start: 1st, GII KY Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28

Accomplishments Include: 1^st, GIII Bourbon S., KEE, Oct. 4

Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20

With Exaggerator failing to win the GII San Vicente, we've dropped him a peg and moved Airoforce up to fourth in the TDN Top 12. He's got a big test coming up Saturday in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds, which will mark his 3-year-old debut. He'll face a quality field and will need to prove that he's ready to go after missing the GIII Sam F. Davis Stakes after returning from a workout with mucous in his throat.

“I'm not concerned at all about having him where we want him to be,” trainer Mark Casse said of the Risen Star assignment. “I think when you go to New Orleans, there's definitely a home-field advantage and it's not ours. The thing I liked about going to Tampa was that everyone was going to be on the same page. That's my only concern about the Risen Star, but we've got to get him going.”

Casse added that after the Risen Star Airoforce will likely race next in the GI Blue Grass at Keeneland.

5. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)

O-Big Chief Racing. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.

Sales history: $110,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 2nd, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special, SAR, Aug. 16

Next Start: GII San Felipe, SA, March 12

Though he finished second behind Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GII San Vicente, Exaggerator didn't lose any of his stature. He's not a seven-furlong horse and he ran a winning race. He just ran into a very talented, speedy horse. The GII San Felipe will be a better test for the horse and the Desormeaux Brothers. Still trying to figure out if a jockey-trainer-brother combination has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Anyone know if jockey Charles Thompson and trainer Herbert Thompson, who won the 1921 Derby with Behave Yourself, are brothers? That's the only possibility.

6. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (c, Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)

O-St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stable. B-Oakbrook Farm (Ky). T-Dominick Schettino.

Sales history: $575,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 30

Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26

Trainer Dominick Schettino is a newcomer to the Derby Trail and some may be wondering if he's making a rookie mistake when it comes to how he has mapped out his schedule to Churchill Downs. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini) will have 56 days off between the GII Holy Bull and the GII Louisiana Derby. He'll then have 42 days in between the Louisiana Derby and the GI Kentucky Derby. Even in a day and age when so many trainers prefer not running to running, Schettino is really going light with his horse. He'll look like a genius if he pulls it off.

7. AWESOME BANNER (c, Awesome of Course—Miranda Stands, by Zamindar)

O/B-Jacks Or Better Farm, Inc. T-Stanley Gold

Last Start: 1st, GII Swale S., GP, Jan. 30

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Hutcheson S, GP, Jan. 2

Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27

Andrew Caulfield on Awesome Banner

The GII Fountain of Youth should answer every question there is when it comes to Awesome Banner. This is clearly a very fast, very talented horse, but he may be just a sprinter. He could win the Fountain of Youth, beating Mohaymen in the process, which would vault him near the top of everyone's rankings. Or he could flounder in the stretch run and show his connections that they had better stick to sprints. It will likely be one or the other. Trainer Stanley Gold has a penchant for developing fast precocious sprinters who prove to have distance limitations. But there have been exceptions. Remember Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course)? She began her career for Gold, won the 2010 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and eventually won at nine furlongs.

8. BRODY'S CAUSE (c, Giant's Causeway—Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)

O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr & Petaluma (Ky). T-Dale Romans.

Sales: $350,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3

Next Start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12

Dale Romans wants to win the GI Kentucky Derby and not the GII Tampa Bay Derby, but he couldn't have picked out a better spot for Brody's Cause to kick off his 2016 campaign. The GIII Sam F. Davis, the prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, included only two Triple Crown nominees, including the winner Destin (Giant's Causeway). With that as the backdrop, the Tampa Bay Derby looks like a very weak prep and one that Brody's Cause may just dominate on class alone. He'll be getting a late start on the road to the Kentucky derby, but Romans has proved time and time again he knows what he's doing when it comes to developing a good 3-year-old.

9. CHERRY WINE (c, Paddy O'Prado–C. S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song)

O/B-Pacella Racing, Frank L. Jones Jr., Frank Shoop. T-Dale Romans.

Last Start: 1st, Allowance Race, GP, Jan. 9

Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27

He's going to have his hands full in the Fountain of Youth, where he'll meet a star-studded lineup that will include Mohaymen. This horse has come out of nowhere to emerge as a Derby candidate and looked good beating a solid field in the Jan. 9 allowance at Gulfstream. But he's yet to run particularly fast. His time for the mile-and-a-sixteenth in the Gulfstream win was 1:44 1/5, which earned him a meager Beyer figure of 79. That's 16 points slower than Mohaymen's best numbers. He might be an Ohio Derby type horse. He might be a lot better than that. The Fountain of Youth will tell.

10. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini–Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)

O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown

Last Start: 1st, Allowance Race, GP, Jan. 29

Next Start: GIII Gotham, AQU, Mar. 5

Another horse that hasn't exactly been breaking stopwatches. He got a lot of hype after winning a first level allowance race at Gulfstream on Jan. 29, but got only a 78 Beyer number that day. Trainer Chad Brown is as much the story here as the horse is. Brown has quickly become a training superstar, but, thus far, has been all but invisible in the Triple Crown and the Derby preps. This is just one of a handful of horses he is pointing to the GI Kentucky Derby and it will be interesting to see how he fares. Born in 1978, Brown is a baby when it comes to being a trainer and will likely have a major impact on the Kentucky Derby before he retires.

11. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)

O/ GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss

Sales history: $150,000 yrl '14 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1

Next Start: GII Risen Star S, FG, Feb. 20

The likely second choice behind Airoforce (Colonel John) in Saturday's GII Risen Star S., Mo Tom has done little wrong in his career. After finishing third behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit in last year's GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., which is looking like a major key race, he scored a handy win in the LeComte in his 3-year-old debut. As is the case with Nyquist (Uncle Mo), his breeding will lead some to believe he won't do his best running at the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile-and-a-quarter. Corey Lanerie, not normally thought of as a top-tier Kentucky Derby-type rider, has the mount of three horses in the TDN Top 12, Mo Tom, Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado) and Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway), so it will be interesting to see which one he sticks with.

12. FRANK CONVERSATION (c, Quality Road—Rushen Heat, by Unusual Heat)

O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Marc Keller. T-Doug O'Neill

Sales history: $65,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT; $120,000 2yo '15 OBSMAR

Last Start: 1st, GIII El Camino Real Derby, GG, Feb. 13

Accomplishments Include: 1st, California Derby, GG, Jan. 16

Next Start: GI UAE Derby, MEY, March 26

Is Frank Conversation (Quality Road) just a synthetic specialist? Has he merely been beating up on sub-par horses in Northern California? Or has he improved significantly over his last two starts? Those are legitimate questions after the 3-year-old trained by Doug O'Neill reeled off consecutive wins over the Tapeta track in the California Derby and the GIII El Camino Real Derby. When last seen running on dirt and against a higher level of competition, he was a distant fifth in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity. In his only other try on the dirt, he finished up the track in a maiden special weight race at Del Mar. Connections are eyeing a rich pay day in the UAE Derby.

Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Conquest Big E (Tapit): Was a disappointment when fourth in the GII Holy Bull, but will try to rebound in the GIII Gotham. “He really struggled that day in the Holy Bull,” trainer Mark Casse said. “He overheated after the race and he wasn't well for a few days after that.”

Collected (City Zip): Drops out of TDN Top 12 after poor showing in GIII Southwest S. But never count out anything trained by Bob Baffert.

Destin (Giant's Causeway): Todd Pletcher-trainee became a stakes winner with victory in the GIII Sam F. Davis but may have taken advantage of a very weak group of opponents,

Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy): Turned some heads with a 5 3/4-length win at Santa Anita on Feb. 4 in an allowance. Gets the real rest in the GII San Felipe.

Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): The beaten favorite in the Withers, the Chad Brown-trainee hasn't worked since Jan. 21. That can't be good news.

Gift Box (Twirling Candy): Another from the Chad Brown stable that appears to have a lot of upside, he hasn't worked since Jan. 25. That can't be good news.

Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}): Will make his 3-year-old debut Saturday in the GII Risen Star. Was fourth last out in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., possibly the strongest 2-year-old race run all last year.

Lani (Tapit): Well-bred Japanese import is eyeing the GII UAE Derby and, afterwards, connections will decide on possible Kentucky Derby run.

Rally Cry (Uncle Mo): Had a terrible trip when third in a Gulfstream allowance last out. One of many that Pletcher stable is trying to develop into a legit Derby contender

Smokey Image (Southern Image): Interesting California-bred who is taking the “California Chrome route” to the Derby, he'll have something to prove against open company in the GII San Felipe.

Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): Overcame the 13 post to score mild upset in the GIII Southwest at Oaklawn. Let's see how he fares when the competition gets tougher.

Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull): The GIII Withers winner will race next at Aqueduct in either the GIII Gotham or the GI Wood Memorial. Connections still saying they're likely to pass on the Derby.

Zulu (Bernardini): If Todd Pletcher is going to have any impact in the GI Kentucky Derby or even on the road to the Derby it may be with this horse. Fountain of Youth will be a huge test for lightly raced colt.