Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: Last Week – Well, the good news about failing to pick a horse who finished first or second last week (both my picks–El Areeb in the Gotham and Three Rules in the Fountain of Youth–finished third) is I don't have to do any math regarding my Bankroll total, which remains $1,200. El Areeb had a pace excuse for the Gotham, but that's an excuse for that one race. Packing it in at 2-5 doesn't portend good things in the Kentucky Derby for me, and he's off the trail as far as I'm concerned. Three Rules ran better with the same placing, but again, tough to see him being Derby material based on what we've seen to date. The only horses I want from last weekend going forward are the Fountain of Youth exacta of Gunnevera and Practical Joke. Bankroll: $1200.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – The Tampa Bay Derby suffered from McCraken bowing out, but there is some depth to this group even if they're lacking in credentials (no graded stakes wins, no wins at a route, etc.). Tapwrit will be the favorite, but I'll bet against favorites off runner-up finishes at this level more often than I won't (I call it the Aptitude effect). I thought State of Honor ran well when putting away Fact Finding, and the dynamics of this race plus some development could lead him gate to wire. Selection: #8 State of Honor (4-1).
GII San Felipe S. – Given duds by Classic Empire and Irish War Cry at odds-on already this year, the San Felipe has the chance to be the prep race of the season with Mastery making his 3-year-old debut against a quick Gormley and a stretching out Iliad. I have to think one of these three will win, and I'll go with the longest shot among them for my mythical $100 WP ticket. Iliad should handle this trip and distance splendidly, and maybe get the jump on Mastery, who doesn't have to win this off the layoff. Selection: #6 Iliad (5-2).
DiDonato: Last Week – Not pleased at all with myself for jumping off J Boys Echo in the Gotham to land on the same beaten chalk that Ed and Steve did. Had a hard time seeing how he'd turn the tables on El Areeb after their previous outing, but considering the major price difference between the two, it was just terrible game play. Oh well. Alternate pick Takaful didn't fare much better in the Fountain of Youth. I think it's officially safe to say that he isn't a router… Bankroll: $1160.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – I could go back to No Dozing, who I'm sort of surprised returns to this surface after a complete no-show effort in the Sam Davis, but original Fountain of Youth pick Beasley seems a bit more likely to run his race (even though he's unproven over the strip), so that's ultimately where I'll land. There's a fair bit of speed signed on here, which is definitely a concern, but I don't think Beasley needs the lead and in fact think he might prove best with a target (or targets) to run at. He's super game and worked very well a week out, so as long as he doesn't get sucked into an early duel, I think he'll be right there fighting in the run to the wire. Selection: #6 Beasley (9-2).
GII San Felipe S. – The tricky thing about this race is that the three gigantic stand-outs on paper all want to race forwardly, but it still feels like you need to simply figure out who of that trio will best survive a potential early duel because the others need to make up so many lengths to be competitive. Looking at the odds from the most recent Derby future gave me a push in a certain direction: Mastery closed at 8-1, Gormley 18-1 and Iliad 24-1. If they bet Saturday's race similarly, Iliad figures to be an overlay. He finished very well after sitting perched just off a hot pace in the GII San Vicente last time, and since he's drawn outside of his two main rivals again here, he should be able to work out a similar trip. Distance is the big question for him, but he's by Ghostzapper and his half-brother Melmich is a GSW at up to 1 3/4 miles in Canada. Selection: #6 Iliad (5-2).
Sherack: Last Week – Am I really on the lead now? Finally had a nice winner thanks to Gunnevera, who stormed home to a powerful victory at 4-1 in the Fountain of Youth. El Areeb, however, couldn't have been more disappointing as the heavy chalk in the Gotham, but at least all three of us were on him. Bankroll: $1310.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – Wild Shot should take a nice step forward with a race under his belt now and hopefully gets overlooked a little bit at the windows, too. A better-than-it-looked fourth after a wide trip while making his 3-year-old debut in the local prep GIII Sam F. Davis S., the Calumet Farm homebred previously got caught up in a pair of hot paces and ran well in defeat to hit the board behind two heavyweights in both the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity and GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. The Rusty Arnold barn enjoyed a nice meet at Tampa last year with a couple of stakes winners and was also represented by Tampa Bay Derby third Star Hill. Let's see if Wild Shot can work out the right trip this time. Selection: #9 Wild Shot (5-1).
GII San Felipe S. – Iliad was impressive enough–and certainly ran fast enough–while making his first attempt for Doug O'Neill in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. to take a swing against the top two here. He breezed a quarter-mile at OBS March last spring like a horse that would appreciate more ground and is also a half-brother to Melmich (Wilko), who has thrived at marathon distances in Canada. This should really be a fun one. Selection: #6 Iliad (5-2).
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