I think that in terms of number of winners in 2020, the leading first-crop sire will by Speightster. I could name at least half a dozen off the top of my head that the consignors in Ocala like. They are “win first out,” early types that will likely be hard to out-sprint.
That being said, in terms of progeny earnings by the end of 2020, my choice would be Frosted. I've seen plenty of quality individuals throughout Ocala by this son of Tapit (who has started to show signs of becoming a quality sire of sires). Some are heading to the two-year-old sales and some were purchased strictly for racing. They are showing signs of brilliance early, but are meant to go on and develop into two-turn horses.
My under-the-radar stallion will be Laoban. There's been some buzz surrounding him by the breeze-up consignors. He will be given plenty of opportunities with progeny in the state-bred races in New York, which means they will be at premier locations with capable trainers. He's by Uncle Mo, which should help with precocity, and he has the numbers. I think he has a chance to be a premier stallion in New York going forward.