James Willoughby: Juveniles of 2015

Two fillies, Acapulco (Scat Daddy) and Lumiere (GB) (Shamardal), have already suggested they might be spectacularly good members of the juvenile crop of 2015. And there may be others to come.

Up to July 22, a total of 1,332 different juveniles had run at least once but, by the end of the season, we will see more than twice this number of individuals. Moreover, the second half of the annual intake is invariably of higher quality than the first.

But we have seen one performance that will likely stand up all season. It came from a filly shipped to Royal Ascot as part of the Wesley Ward consignment, and who produced a performance for the ages in terms of form and time. More excitingly still, the Coolmore Partners' Acapulco is to eschew the traditional route that winners of the G2 Queen Mary S. over five furlongs take. Instead, she is to take on older horses in the Coolmore-sponsored G1 Nunthorpe S. at York.

This is an interesting plan, not least because 2-year-olds receive 24 pounds from older horses in the Nunthorpe, which is seven pounds more than Timeform has calculated is correct. Kingsgate Native, in 2007, was the last juvenile to win, but there hasn't been a truly high-class representative like Acapulco to test the fairness of the allowance since then.

Another potential super filly appeared in a six-furlong maiden at Newmarket's July Festival in Lumiere. A grey daughter of Darley's Shamardal, she produced some amazing in-race timing data on the way to a six-length win. Lumiere ran the penultimate furlong in 10.65 seconds and finished off uphill in 11.43 seconds. We know enough about sectional data in Britain now to assert that the winner simply has to own group-class speed. It is now for her to sustain a longer career than her one-and-done dam Screen Star, similarly impressive to Lumiere on her only maiden try in 2007.

To assess the range of outcomes possible for Lumiere's career, let's first look at the rarity value of wide-margin debut wins. A total of 56,364 horses have made their debut in a British juvenile race since 1997. Here is how the subset of those who won breaks down by winning distance:

So, only one in about 400 juvenile debutants is capable of winning by six lengths like Lumiere. But, Lumiere is much rarer than that because she won at Newmarket. In the same period as the above sample, 5,958 juveniles have made their debut at the headquarters of British racing. Here is the same table as the one above for them:

So, only 1 in nearly 750 Newmarket debutants is capable of the same six-length romp as Lumiere. Let's look at the other seven and their subsequent careers:

The three colts have gone on to prove the best of six-length-plus Newmarket maiden winners, while the four fillies have peaked at OR 110 and fallen short of the absolute cream of the crop, but you get the idea: ratings mechanisms like Racing Post Ratings, which awarded Lumiere a rating of 90, are only descriptive of the bare facts of her win, while the expected rating, which it is likely she will achieve, is considerably higher (NB Timeform ratings employ sectional timing data and awarded Lumiere a much more useful 108p).

To say the least, Lumiere's debut in stakes company is eagerly awaited.

Lumiere's trainer, Mark Johnston, has been the human story of the 2-year-old division in 2015. Better known for his exploits with staying horses, he has welcomed more than 140 mainly Maktoum family-owned juveniles to his impressive Kingsley Park training complex in North Yorkshire with stunning results: 47 winners from 196 runners to date, at a 24% strike-rate that is clearly the best of any trainer who has saddled more than 40 runners.

The Johnston-trained Buratino (Ire) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}) won the best early season race for juvenile colts, the G2 Coventry S., at Royal Ascot. Not only was his victory impressive, but it came on his sixth career start, which bucks the trend nowadays for juvenile racing in Britain. Trainers typically campaign their young horses lightly, but Johnston's ability to induce a series of improved efforts from his youngsters should be informative to anyone who is paying attention: why not actually race horses for money, rather than gallop them at home for nothing?

Buratino had the Richard Hannon-trained Eltezam (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) four lengths back in third in the Coventry, and the fact that the latter was given a similar beating the following month in the G2 July S. suggests Shalaa (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) is of similar merit. Shalaa's trainer, John Gosden, has bigger fish to fry in the 3-year-old division with phenoms Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}) and Jack Hobbs (GB) (Halling), but his team have done well to calm down the flighty juvenile who won despite veering sharply left when the race looked to be won.

For his part, Hannon has won black-type events with Illuminate (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) and King of Rooks (GB) (Acclamation {GB}), while his Log Out Island (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) is capable of achieving the same feat.

Two maiden winners for Newamrket trainer William Haggas sure to make their mark at a higher level are Ornate (GB) (Bahamian Bouty {GB}), a Ripon scorer for Cheveley Park Stud, and Saleh Homaizi and Imad Al Sagar's Ajaya (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), who was very impressive on his third start at York.