Derby (Kentucky) Sires

The number four sire in North America this year is Spendthrift's Malibu Moon (click here); he is the only one of the North American top five who did not have a runner in the superfecta in the GI Kentucky Derby. By this I mean: winner (and future Darley sire) Nyquist, by North America's #1 sire, Ashford's Uncle Mo; second (and future WinStar sire) Exaggerator, by Hill 'n' Dale's Curlin, #5 on the sire list; third (and future Three Chimneys stallion) Gun Runner, by North America #3, Lane's End's Candy Ride; and fourth (and presumably future Shadwell stallion) Mohaymen, by North America #2, Gainesway's two-time champion sire, Tapit. These sires aren't at the top of the list because of their Derby earnings; they were already there, the Derby result just reinforces their standing.

First, the race itself. It's interesting that the betting public had it absolutely right: the first four finishers were the first four betting choices, in order. It reminded me of something the great Australian poet and racing journalist A. B. (Banjo) Paterson wrote over a hundred years ago, in a chapter titled “Buying A Yearling” from his 1913 treatise, Racehorses And Racing (veteran readers may remember I did my Masters' Thesis, a thousand years ago, on Banjo Paterson). He wrote: “there is a vast silent army without generals or colonels or captains, an army that is camped everywhere on ceaseless picket duty–the army of those that back horses”; a/k/a 'the betting public', and often they know more than all the pundits put together. The betting public certainly nailed it in the Derby, right down to sending Nyquist off at 2.30-1, shorter than most pundits predicted but more in line with what the colt had already achieved.

Paterson went on to write that, to the army of those that back horses: “To them the owner of a really first-class horse is a greater hero than your politician, or your lawyer or your singer or you yourself … the racehorse owner–he knows what they go through. He has been through it all: the thrill of victory, the chagrin of defeat. He knows what it is to take six to four and see it get left at the barrier. He knows what it means to take hundreds to one as soon as the weights come out, and see it start at fours and win with its head in its chest.”

When Paul Reddam, Doug O'Neill and their entourage brought I'll Have Another to Churchill Downs in 2012, they knew they had a lot better than a 15-1 shot off his win over Creative Cause (who had previously beaten Derby favorite Bodemeister in the GII San Felipe). Then, after mastering Bodemeister again in the GI Preakness, I for one, thought I'll Have Another was a certainty to win the GI Belmont and the Triple Crown. But I'll Have Another, as we know, never even got to the starting gate; he didn't get a chance to “get left at the barrier.” So it's not surprising Doug O'Neill and Team Reddam aren't getting carried away; they know better than anybody that a Triple Crown bid can come apart at any minute. Baltimore next; do that, really, one race at a time. But it's pretty telling when you read trainer O'Neill quoted as saying “He's definitely the best horse I've ever been around.” I'm going to continue to try to not jinx Paul Reddam, so I'll just say to Paul what I said last week, before the race: Seattle Slew 1977, Affirmed 1978. The dream is alive.

Not surprisingly, Nyquist's Derby win propels his sensational young sire, Uncle Mo, past Tapit into the number one spot on the North American 2016 General Sire List, by more than $1.3-million at this point. But Tapit is still the leading North American sire in 2016 by number of Black-Type Winners (11), Black-Type Horses (27), Graded SW (8), and Graded Stakes Horses (19). Uncle Mo has nine BTW and 18 BTH so far this year; cumulatively he has 13 Black-Type Winners and 23 Black-Type Horses to date. Whether he ends up number one or number two on the 2016 North American General Sire List when all is said and done, he could hardly have made a more impressive start, and whatever you've paid to breed to him this year, he'll definitely cost more next year.

In contrast to Uncle Mo's rocketing to sire stardom, Curlin's accession to a $100,000 stud fee was a long time coming. North America's all-time leading money-earner until California Chrome won the G1 Dubai World Cup a few weeks ago, Curlin initially went to stud at Lane's End Farm at a $75,000 fee in 2009. After he finished ninth on the 2012 North American freshman sire list, his fee dropped to $25,000 for 2013. That year he did have GI Belmont S. winner Palace Malice in his first crop, yet he finished third on the NA second-crop sire list, behind Ashford's Majestic Warrior (since sold to Japan) and Hill 'n' Dale's Midnight Lute. Palace Malice was one of only two A Runners for Curlin the year he had his first 3-year-olds, so he had only an 0.66 A Runner Index, though he did also have five B Runners (1.64) and 12 C Runners (1.97) by the end of 2013, and he was the leading F2010 sire of 2013 ABC Runners, with 18. His 2014 stud fee remained at $25,000, though.

In 2014, Curlin was leading North American third-crop sire (first 4-year-olds racing) by a mile, with 12 Black-Type Winners and the earners of over $9.3-million, ranking him 11th on the 2014 TDN North American General Sire List. He had 12 A Runners by the end of 2014 (1.86 A Runner Index), and 57 ABC Runners (2.21 ABC Index), which was far ahead of any other F2010 sire; Midnight Lute was second by number of 2012-2014 ABC Runners, with 38. So Curlin was getting tons of useful horses, and now plenty of Black-Type Winners, but he still had only two GSW in 2014, and by the end of that year Palace Malice was still his only Grade I winner. He stood for $35,000 in 2015.

In 2015, though, the year he had his first 5-year-olds racing, Curlin's third crop of 3-year-olds finally propelled him to sire stardom. He had seven GSW last year, the earners of over $11-million, and ranked sixth on the 2015 TDN North American general sire list, and these included three Grade I-winning 3-year-olds: the fillies Stellar Wind, who won the GI Santa Anita Oaks, got beat in a photo by Stopchargingmaria in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff, and was named Eclipse Champion 3-year-old filly; and Curalina, who won the GI Acorn and CCA Oaks and placed in three other Grade I's, including third in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff, in which Stellar Wind was second; and the colt Keen Ice, who upset American Pharoah in the GI Travers S., though he hasn't found the winner's circle since. While all this was going on, John Sikura of Hill 'n' Dale Farm made a successful bid of $6.2-million for a 20% interest in Curlin in a court-ordered sale stemming from the interest still owned by Curlin's original owners, former attorneys Shirley Cunningham Jr. and William Gallion, whose Midnight Cry Stables had originally bought Curlin as a yearling for $57,000, then sold 80% of him to Stonestreet Farm's Jess Jackson and partners. Their 20% interest was a court-ordered sale, as they had been convicted of fraud and jailed, and the 20% interest in Curlin was being sold to provide partial restitution to the fraud victims. Anyway, Sikura's bid valued Curlin at $31-million, which meant his days as a five-figure stallion were over. He moved to Hill 'n' Dale for the 2016 season, where he has been covering this year for a $100,000 fee.

This seems to have been working out fine, and received a further boost in Louisville when Curalina won her third Grade I race with a big score in Friday's La Troienne, then Exaggerator came out of the pack to chase home Nyquist in the Derby. Exaggerator had won the GII Saratoga Special and run fourth to Nyquist in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. This year he'd been second to him in the GII San Vicente (first time out for both), then a disappointing third behind Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit in the GII San Felipe, but he rebounded with a big six-length win in the GI Santa Anita Derby–thus becoming Curlin's fifth Grade I winner–in the slop. It sometimes happens with sires: Palace Malice in his first crop was Curlin's only Grade I winner in his first two crops, then he has three in his third and now one in his fourth. He didn't rocket to stardom like Uncle Mo –but then neither did Curlin's sire, Smart Strike. Looks like Curlin is cut from the same cloth, but one thing for sure is: once they become six-figure sires, they rarely go backwards.