By John Boyce
It's true that the bloodstock world can be preoccupied with the success or failure of first-season sires. The lack of immediate success can condemn some stallions and it can also put undue pressure on others far too early in their careers. Just like any horse race, the race to become a top sire frequently changes complexion in the course of the first two to three years. And that's fine as long as it fits with expectation. Some stallions will blaze a trail in the first three months and join the many also-rans when their true ability is fully exposed.
Our table of all freshmen sires since 2000, ranked by individual winners to July 21 in the season, clearly demonstrates the mix of precocity and class. Gutaifan (Ire)'s 15 winners so far is just one shy of were his grandsire Acclamation was in 2007 and identical to the number his sire Dark Angel had in 2011. All the sires on our table can be considered fast starters, but for the vast majority it was always going to be their only time in the spotlight. Later in year one and during years two and three as the focus turns away from precocity and points inexorably towards quality, most stallions fall by the wayside, to be replaced by the next generation of shooting stars.
Of the 25 fast starters between 2000 and 2018, over two-thirds ended up with a stakes winner to runner percentage of less than 5% and as many as 12 could not even manage 3%. Moreover, the vast majority failed to improve their mares. And don't forget, we are looking only at the better first-season sires here.
There are, however, stallions that can manage to be both precocious and long-lasting. The Irish National Stud's Invincible Spirit (Ire) had a table-topping 18 winners to his name by this stage in 2006, one ahead of another ultimately successful sire in Iffraaj (GB), who set a record for winning first-season youngsters with 38 in 2010. Cape Cross (Ire) also combined a fast start with ultimate longevity: he had 12 winners by this point and went on to sire Sea The Stars (Ire) and Golden Horn (GB). And it looks very likely that No Nay Never will follow the same path. He too had 12 individual winners by this time and he's just sired the winners of the G1 July Cup and G2 Superlative S. Significantly, his strike rate stands at 11.2% stakes winners to runners, the best of this group. Let's see if he can stay the right side of 10% which could very much depend whether he's a sire of pure sprinters or sprinter-milers.
The lack of a stakes winner at this point is not significant. Cape Cross hadn't yet sired a stakes winner, while Invincible Spirit (listed winner Bahama Mama {Ire}) and Dark Angel (listed winner Lily's Angel {Ire}) had only one apiece. So there is still ample time for the likes of Night Of Thunder (Ire), who had produced the best winners-to-runners strike rate of any freshman sire with 20-plus runners in the past 20 years with 12 winners in 2019 from only 22 runners (55%). And you can be certain there are more progressive types waiting in the wings.
What this table tells us more than anything else is that there's a keen commercial demand for all types of stallions, ranging from the fast-starting winner getters to the traditional Classic sires and all points in between.
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