Brisnet.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Florida Derby

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Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap Triple Crown prep races plus the big three races themselves. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets in the preps and $200 Win/Place bets in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Highest bankroll at the end wins.

DeRosaLast Week's Results Wells Bayou (+$710) kept on finding as the 3-1 favorite to wire the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby. Bankroll: $2275.

GI Curlin Florida Derby – The cliche goes “willing to forgive” a horse's last race, but in the case of Independence Hall, there's nothing to forgive. He ran tough on the front end and got caught by a good horse who got a better set up. Now Independence Hall gets a track more to his liking and can sit and kick behind a pace and get first run on some others. Selection: #9 Independence Hall (9-2).

Sherack Last Week's Results Major Fed put in a big run with an impossible trip from far back to finish fourth. I'll definitely be playing him back for the third straight time. Bankroll: $1885.

GI Curlin Florida Derby – Impossible to knock Tiz the Law after his sensational comebacker in the Holy Bull, and Independence Hall ran much better than he's getting credit for after chasing that hot pace in the Sam Davis. All that being said, I landed on a different one sired by the red-hot Constitution, who, of course, captured this race in 2014. Can't imagine getting anything close to the 8-1 that Gouverneur Morris is quoted on the morning-line (think there's a good chance he goes off as the second choice), but around half that price should present fair value. The promising gray looked like he could be any kind at two, and he returned from the bench with a useful prep, chasing and pouncing on the very fast Untitled in a Tampa optional claimer. He appears to be training great for Pletcher since and has every right to move forward. Selection: #5 Gouverneur Morris (8-1).

DiDonatoLast Week's Results – No excuse for Lynn's Map–I need a new Derby sleeper. Bankroll: $2065.

GI Curlin Florida DerbyTiz the Law remains the current leader for me on this very long Derby trail, and I can't come up with a particularly good reason to oppose him here. There are some pretty solid alternatives signed on, but nobody who I think is both capable of running faster than him and likely to see out nine furlongs better. There are enough other horses to take money that maybe he'll end up being another slight overlay like he was in the Holy Bull. Selection: #7 Tiz the Law (6-5).

 

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