Osborne Confident His Pegasus Entry Won't Get Toasted

It's a tall order, and trainer Jamie Osborne knows that. In Toast of New York (Theywayyouare), he'll be bringing a horse that has run once in three years into the world's richest race to face some of the world's best horses. And while his comeback resulted in an impressive win, it came in a modest $25,000 race at Lingfield. But tough spot or not, Osborne is sure his horse will be competitive and isn't sure he can't win the $16-million GI Pegasus World Cup.

“What I am confident about is that the horse deserves to be in the field,” said the trainer, who is based in Upper Lambourn, England. “When it comes to the balance of probability, the [betting] market will tell you that's he's significantly more likely to lose than to win. But there is a chance that he can win it. When there is $16 million being dangled in front of you I'm willing to bring him over and take that chance.”

In its short history, the Pegasus has never seen a horse quite like Toast of New York and may never again. He is good enough to have finished second, beaten only a nose, in a GI Breeders' Cup Classic. But that was way back in 2014 at Santa Anita, when he lost to Bayern (Offlee Wild).

After the Breeders' Cup, he was purchased by Al Shaqab Racing with the intention of racing him in the G1 Dubai World Cup. But while training for that race he suffered a tear in a tendon and it was decided to retire him. Al Shaqab is based in Qatar and that's where the stable sent Toast of New York to stand at stud. He was bred to about 15 mares during the 2016 breeding season, a limited number due mostly to the lack of quality dams in that country. With his sire career in flux and with the old injury having healed up, Toast of New York appeared to be a candidate to return to the races. It had been a long time, but Al Shaqab wanted to see if he could return to the form he showed at three in the Classic.

“It was an idea that was first thrown around probably 18 months ago, the possibility of him coming back,” Osborne said. “So after much consideration with Sheikh Joaan and the Al Shaqab team, we decided with a very open mind we would bring him back and have a look to see where we were with him. Realistically, deep down, we all believed this might be a mission that was not going to work and at some time we would be saying this was a nice idea but it just didn't work. But we were all open-minded about it.”

Toast of New York returned to Osborne's yard in March. He said no pressure was put on him, the only instructions being try to get him back and take as much time as you need.

“It was going to be a matter of, if you can get him ready, see how he does,” Osborne said. “And if you can't, then there's no great hardship.”

Osborne got to the point where he felt Toast of New York was ready for a race and he found a spot for him at Lingfield over the all-weather track Dec. 6. It had been 1,130 days since his last start, but if he were rusty, he didn't exactly show it. With Frankie Dettori aboard, he won by a length.

“Probably around October, the picture started to become clear,” Osborne said. “I was starting to think this could actually happen, there is a chance he was as good as ever, as he has the appetite to do it. So from that time in October, I started thinking that the Pegasus might work. Lingfield was a stepping stone to get there. We didn't necessarily need to see a performance at Lingfield that was up there in the mid-120s (his Timeform rating) to make a decision to whether we would come to Florida. What we needed to see at Lingfield was that the desire was still there, that he came back sound and that he ran at Lingfield the way his works suggested he would, and that's what happened.”

Osborne said the Pegasus became the goal because of where it falls on the calendar. Had Toast of New York progressed more rapidly he said he would have run in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Had he needed more time, he might have been pointed for Dubai.

Toast of New York arrived at Gulfstream yesterday and Osborne believes American observers will see a horse that could be better than the one they saw in 2014 at the Breeders' Cup. A 7-year-old may not necessarily be better than a 3-year-old, but what if it happens to be a 7-year-old who hasn't experienced any wear and tear for over three years?

“I think there's a chance,” Osborne said when asked if the horse is better now than he was years ago. “I think horses do deteriorate by the age of seven. But is that naturally or is it external influences that deteriorate them? Is it their lack of desire, or it is physical wear and tear that means they're not as good at seven as they were at three? I don't know the answer to that. Obviously, this horse has had no hardships for an awful long time, so he could be more of the finished article than the last time he was here. He could be more mature. If there's been a natural progression with natural maturity and no wear and tear that might have hindered him, that should make him a little bit better. I think he's more than capable of doing better than he did as a 3 year-old.”

So far as major U.S. races go, what Toast of New York is trying to pull off is reminiscent of what Michael Dickinson did with Da Hoss. He won the 1996 GI Breeders' Cup Mile and then disappeared for nearly two years. Dickinson brought him back, gave him a prep in an allowance race at Colonial Downs and wheeled him back to win the 1998 Mile.

But Toast of New York has been away even longer and will be facing much tougher competition than anything Da Hoss met in the Breeders' Cup. The Pegasus is led by likely 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), razor sharp miler Sharp Aztecta (Freud), likely 3-year-old male champion West Coast (Flatter) and standout mare Stellar Wind (Curlin).

“I don't know much about the American horses,” Osborne admitted. “Obviously, Gun Runner has been an outstanding horse over the last 12 months and we've all seen what he's done. I am full of respect for him. I don't know whether we're good enough to beat him. I don't know if we'd ever be good enough to beat him. I do know this is a horse race and I've been around long enough to know that in horse races, things can happen and sometimes horses may or may not run to their best. When they're offering $16 million, we are happy to take a chance and see whether or not we're good enough.”