Weight-For-Age Scale Amended

Flat racing's weight-for-age scale will be adjusted across Europe next year for races 10 furlongs and above. Following extensive data analysis and research by the British Horseracing Authority and other nations, the decision was made to amend the scale to remove the clear advantage to 3-year-olds that the data reflected. The alterations will be minimal, and range from one pound at 10, 11 and 12 furlongs to three pounds over longer distances.

The BHA's study compared the winning rate for 3-year-olds against older horses over six years. It looked at the differences between each year, month and by distance across a sample of over 89,000 runners in handicaps and 5,000 runners in weight-for-age races, comparing finishing position, rivals beaten, average winning distance and more. Phil Smith, head of handicapping for the BHA, said, “When we started the process of reviewing the weight-for-age data, well over a year ago, I suspected that the statistics might show a bias towards 3-year-olds over longer distances in the second half of the season. The data has borne that out. The key findings of the data were that 3-year-olds have a higher strike rate than older horses, which is particularly noticeable from July onwards, and that as distance increases, so does the strike rate of 3-year-olds, and their average winning margin. This is because 3-year-olds are on average improving at a faster rate than the weight-for-age scale currently dictates. The alterations made to the scale should help to create a more level playing field for older horses competing against 3-year-olds across Europe. At first the alterations will be seen as a trial and all the data will be kept under review for a number of years, to ensure that the alterations are having the desired, and necessary, effect.”

Rupert Arnold, chief executive of the National Trainers Federation, added, “Our Flat Committee was at first skeptical of the argument that a change was needed to the weight-for-age scale, which in their opinion had stood the test of time. All credit to the BHA Racing Department for the depth of evidential data they produced to demonstrate that in the current era, the scale marginally favours 3-year-olds at certain times of year over longer distances. The NTF endorsed the changes subject to them being applied throughout Europe so we are pleased that the other European Pattern Committee members have come on board.”