Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets-highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.
DeRosa: Smarty Jones S. – Gray Attempt went to the front and dug in to score. Bankroll: $530.
GII Holy Bull S. – A troika of Kentucky Derby points on Saturday ushers in Super Bowl weekend. We got off the schneid last week, and will look to add to our score with a trio of logical horses led by Maximus Mischief, who I see not only as the most likely winner of the Holy Bull, but also of all three races. I loved the brilliance he showed winning his first two starts sprinting and then stretching out to win the Remsen. I typically don't like Remsen winners next out, but this is not your grandfather's Remsen winner who excelled in that race because of the nine furlongs as a juvenile. This horse is just better than the rest. Selection: #8 Maximus Mischief (1-1).
GIII Withers S. – It could be a big day for Charles Zacney, whose Cash Is King Stable is also in on Lucky Lee in the Withers, which I see as the most competitive of Saturday's Derby prep slate. Lucky Lee follows a similar path to the Withers as fellow colorbearer Maximus Mischief did to the Remsen, winning his first two starts at Parx in brilliant fashion. I'll play that brilliance to stretch out given the pedigree and what is a square price on the morning line. Selection: #5 Lucky Lee (7-2).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – The Lewis is interesting pitting two established 2-year-olds (Gunmetal Gary and Mucho Gusto) against the flashy maiden winner Nolo Contesto. I'll go with the up-and-comer from John Sadler's barn. Nolo Contesto's debut wasn't terrible considering the start and picked up a lot of horses late. Then he was much the best next out when taking a lot of money considering the debut. The 94 Brisnet Speed Rating fits with these, and I see him as most likely to improve. Selection: #6 Nolo Contesto (5-2).
Sherack – Smarty Jones S. – Bankit fell too far behind over a very speed-favoring surface and never factored as the favorite. Bankroll: $0.
GII Holy Bull S. – Between the tough post and two very fast stretch-out sprinters drawn just to his outside, this is no layup for the unbeaten and very talented Maximus Mischief. I'll instead opt for the second-choice Mihos, who should receive an absolute dream set-up. Mihos has looked plenty promising in his last two victories as well, including an impressive come-from-behind win in the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man S. in Hallandale Jan. 5. The added distance and stretch to two turns should be right up his alley. Selection: #6 Mihos (5-2).
GIII Withers S. – I liked Admire's debut enough–he completely blew the start from his rail draw and turned in a serious move on the far turn and into the stretch to finish a respectable fifth going six furlongs–to give him a chance at a big price here. While he'll have to improve plenty off that 71 Beyer he earned last out in his hard-fought maiden breaker in late November, it was still fairly impressive for him to return just 22 days later and successfully stretch to the demanding distance of 1 1/8 miles over a sloppy, sealed track. Scratched from the GIII Lecomte S. after drawing wide, he seems to be training well enough with a steady diet of five-furlong breezes in South Florida for his connections to take a swing at the Derby trail. Selection: #4 Admire (15-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – The word was out on Nolo Contesto after his eventful debut fifth–he was bumped so hard in the early stages that Joel Rosario briefly lost one of his irons–and he knuckled down nicely next out after covering all the ground to graduate in his two-turn debut going a mile at Santa Anita in early January. Having likely favorite and horse to beat Mucho Gusto walk around the track on the lead is an obvious concern, but another step forward from the promising Hronis Racing colorbearer can make him a major player. Selection: #6 Nolo Contesto (5-2).
DiDonato – Smarty Jones S. – Boy was I wrong about Super Steed… Didn't seem like he really ran his race over a track that played to speed all weekend and he checked in seventh. Bankroll: $500.
GII Holy Bull S. – To state the obvious, there's a ton of pace signed on here. Maximus Mischief might just be a monster, and maybe he can rate, but he's far from a lock against this formidable group. Mihos is the obvious alternative, but he's tough to pass up for me. What made his Mucho Macho Man win impressive was how early he was switched off cover. He ran four wide out in no-man's land around the entire turn and covered way more ground than every one of his rivals according to Trakus (between 21 and 53 ft.). The added real estate shouldn't be an issue. Selection: #6 Mihos (5-2).
GIII Withers S. – Considering the comment on my virtual stable for Lucky Lee is “early Derby horse?” I'd say I probably have to pick him. I just loved how he moved through the stretch when running up the score in a Parx allowance last time–he's got that A.P. Indy low head carriage thing going on and appears plenty capable of getting an additional furlong. Selection: #5 Lucky Lee (7-2).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – Nolo Contesto found trouble sprinting first out, but stepped forward in a big way to come out on top of a duel when stretched to a mile Jan. 4. The horse he beat is a well-bred, highly regarded colt who might not possess the most killer instinct out there, but he is a pretty good barometer for his competition. The horses who narrowly beat that runner in each of his previous two starts subsequently took stakes events (he runs back one race before the Lewis). The winner of his debut annexed an allowance and was third in a stakes since then. Nolo Contesto should appreciate the added distance of this, and he looked great breezing in company last week. Selection: #6 Nolo Contesto (5-2).
Click for Withers, Holy Bull & Robert B. Lewis Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com.
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
