Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets-highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.
DiDonato: GI Florida Derby – Bourbon War was too far back and too wide behind a soft pace. Bankroll: $11,165.
GI Santa Anita Derby – Roadster's been hyped since before he ever ran, and now it's time to see if it's been justified. I thought he looked great leveling off late in that optional-claiming comeback, and while he really doesn't have to get much faster to fit with these, he figures to take another step forward with the added real estate and additional experience. Selection: #1 Roadster (5-2).
GII Wood Memorial – I know Haikal was the beneficiary of an incredibly fast pace last time in the Gotham, but I'm not so sure the pace won't be hot in here too. There are obviously other formidable off-the-pace types–most notably GII Tampa Bay Derby winner Tacitus–but Haikal feels like the one who could get lost in the wagering among that group. His experience over the strip is an advantage over some of these, and the added distance doesn't appear beyond his scope. Selection: #4 Haikal (4-1).
GII Blue Grass – Given that I still haven't updated my stable mail note for Lucky Lee from “Early Derby horse?” I guess I have to go back to him here. He was undeniably disappointing when last in the GIII Withers in an effort that just doesn't seem like it could possibly be an accurate representation of his ability level. But trainer John Servis has had plenty of time to work with him since then, and it has to be taken as a positive sign that they'll bring him back in this tough spot. Selection: #10 Lucky Lee (20-1).
Sherack: GI Florida Derby – Bourbon War didn't get the aggressive ride I was looking for and had to settle for a well-beaten fourth. Bankroll: $5230.
GI Santa Anita Derby – This distance of 1 1/8 miles is exactly what Nolo Contesto has been looking for and he'll be the best price of the big four. Maybe the early pace scenario/short field winds up working against him, but there should be proper compensation at the windows to find out if he's good enough following his better-than-it-looked second-place finish behind the super-hyped Roadster. Selection: #3 Nolo Contesto (6-1).
GII Wood Memorial – After backing him in the Tampa Bay Derby Throwdown, I really love Outshine to go one better in this wide-open Wood Memorial. He ran a winning race that day when a strong second at 6-1 while making his two-turn debut after sitting just off a scorching early pace. The bay continues to move forward with each start and he should also appreciate the added distance. It certainly doesn't hurt to have trainer Todd Pletcher's record in this race either at what has to be a very square price. Selection: #10 Outshine (6-1).
GII Blue Grass – Dream Maker has been a very difficult horse to figure out to this point, but the talent is clearly there when he has his mind on racing. After running as well as he did in a key race in his Fair Grounds comebacker in early February, I have to give him another shot despite not running a step in the GII Tampa Bay Derby last time. That local four-furlong bullet in :46 (1/48) last Saturday looks like he means business for the Blue Grass. Selection: #6 Dream Maker (12-1).
DeRosa: GI Florida Derby – Got myself a bit back in the hunt with place money on Bodexpress, and if I'm right with either of my Blue Grass or Wood picks, then I might become the hunted. Bankroll: $3250.
GI Santa Anita Derby – Before we get to the rainmakers, we'll start with the Santa Anita Derby, which isn't the sexiest race from a wagering perspective, but is most likely to have the biggest Kentucky Derby implications. Game Winner is the most likely winner of both the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbys, but I see Instagrand as offering the best value thanks to the buzz surrounding Roadster, which I'm willing to fade. Instagrand ran well enough for me off a long bench and this feels like more his “Derby” than the one in Kentucky. Selection: #5 Instagrand (3-1).
GII Wood Memorial – Joevia needs a similar trip as my Blue Grass selection Aquadini, but seems capable based on being sharp at seven furlongs before being collared by Haikal, and his second to Alwaysmining doesn't bother me considering I had that horse in my Kentucky Derby Top 10 before connections decided on the Preakness. Selection: #11 Joevia (30-1).
GII Blue Grass – Aquadini sports the fastest last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating, and in a year with a lot of parity, why not take the “now” horse a la By My Standards in the Louisiana Derby two weeks ago. The outside post isn't great, but who better than to work a trip than Corey Lanerie for a trainer (Dallas Stewart) who we know can pop with longshots this time of year. Selection: #14 Aquadini (30-1).
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