Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: GIII Southwest S. – Readers of this space might remember that I picked Cool Arrow to win the Southwest S. Well, he scratched, which worked out well for me because I picked One Liner instead, and he won to get me about 5-2 on my mythical $100 win-place wager and boost my Bankroll to $1,200 through 8 races (8-2-1-1).
GII Risen Star S. – If I liked Cool Arrow last week then why not this week? He has the top Brisnet.com Prime Power, and the same tactical game I thought he'd bring to the Southwest can be in play in the Risen Star as well, and we'll get a better price at Fair Grounds than we would have at Oaklawn. So it's Cool Arrow for me. Selection: #8 Cool Arrow (15-1).
DiDonato: GIII Southwest S. – Silver Dust ran into some traffic trouble in the stretch to settle for fourth behind Ed's replacement pick. Playing from slightly behind now, but still plenty of races to go. Bankroll: $1160.
GII Risen Star S. – Mo Town sort of grew on me when I went back and looked at his races again at the end of last year, but having seen how unproductive those who were behind him in the Remsen have been in subsequent efforts, I'm inclined to let him beat me. LeComte winner Guest Suite looked good last time (is he really going to be 6-1?), but considering the wet track and how close a number of these finished to him, he's another I'm not afraid to take a shot against. Local Hero is just 4-1 on the morning line, and I'm hoping he goes off there or higher as he's coming off only a maiden win, albeit in fast time. Watching his two races last year, in which he was outkicked after showing speed, you'd have a hard time thinking that he wanted more ground. But he returned going two turns here Jan. 26, and proved just that, setting a swift opening quarter en route to a 7 1/4-length romp over a next-out graduate. He strikes me as a naturally fast horse with stamina–the type who can grind down his competition on the front end, but maybe doesn't have a quick burst in him. The well-bred $500K Fasig Florida juvenile looks like he should make the lead and hopefully get loose here, and will be tough to reel in if that's the case. Selection: #3 Local Hero (4-1).
Sherack: GIII Southwest S. – Thought I was sitting pretty with the lightly raced Silver Dust after seeing those hot early fractions, but he never had any real punch in the stretch and had to settle for a distant fourth. Slight burn seeing my Smarty Jones selection Petrov finish second at 8-1… Still plenty of time to go, but really need to get going here. Bankroll: $590.
GII Risen Star S. – Even with some lackluster recent performances from the GII Remsen S. also-rans, I just can't stay away from that race's winner and likely favorite here Mo Town. The bay really looked like the real deal when earning his diploma in the Belmont slop for 'TDN Rising Star' honors, then passed a huge test stretching to 1 1/8 miles with another very impressive performance in the Remsen. Mo Town appears locked and loaded for this first attempt of the season as he continues to fire nothing but bullets at trainer Tony Dutrow's Payson Park base. Selection: #9 Mo Town (7-2).
Click for Brisnet.com PPs for the Risen Star, Derby Future Wager & Oaks Future Wager.
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