Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets-highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.
DeRosa – GIII Sam F. Davis – Going for Gold was ninth. Bankroll: $530.
GII Risen Star S. – I'm very much against one favorite Saturday and in the camp of the other. We'll try to beat Lecomte S. winner War of Will in the Risen Star, as that foe has not run fast enough to merit backing at the shortest price in a full field. The Lecomte as a whole evokes thoughts of Shania Twain because it didn't impress me much. Another race at Fair Grounds, however, did, and that was the entry-level allowance race that produced the Owendale, Frolic More, Gun It trifecta. We'll take Owendale on top here, as that race did come back just as good as the Lecomte and you get a better price. Selection: #8 Owendale (6-1).
El Camino Real Derby – In the El Camino Real, Kingly stands tall over this field, and I have no issue with synthetic given the versatile breeding. Selection: #9 Kingly (2-1).
Sherack – GIII Sam F. Davis – Kentucky Wildcat turned in a big effort to finish a strong second before being vanned off with an injury. Hoping for a speedy recovery for this talented son of Tapit. Bankroll: $230.
GII Risen Star S. – Outside post and all, I just don't see anything in this field stepping up and defeating the very imposing War of Will. The runaway GIII Lecomte winner is tactical enough to once again secure that ideal, stalk-and-pounce trip, albeit at a short price. Selection: #14 War of Will (5-2).
El Camino Real Derby – I always tend to side with the grassy SoCal invaders in this race and certainly had plenty of options to choose from this year. Eagle Song (Ire) brought approximately $215k from Red Baron's Barn and Rancho Temescal at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training Sale after turning in consecutive wins over the Dundalk synthetic for Joseph O'Brien Oct. 5 & 19. He's run well in defeat in a pair of efforts over the Santa Anita lawn since venturing Stateside and returns on quick notice here-something he clearly thrives on-after finishing a strong second going a mile Feb. 1. This one could be rounding into form at the perfect time and should sit a nice trip if he handles the added distance. Selection: #7 Eagle Song (Ire) (5-1).
DiDonato – GIII Sam F. Davis – Original pick Cave Run scratched, but replacement play So Alive put in a nice run from very far back to be third. Bankroll: $500.
GII Risen Star S. – I found this race tough to take a stand in–there were just cases to be made for a lot of them. I'm going to stop from changing my mind again and take a swing already on Dunph. His Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion S. romp couldn't have been much more impressive, and while he's failed to reproduce that effort in two subsequent attempts, I'm willing to forgive those runs. The GII Kentucky Jockey Club came in the slop, and he had a right to come back down to earth a bit after two romps. I thought his Springboard Mile third was sneaky good–he moved too early and wide into a pace that ultimately collapsed. The form of that race has held up reasonably well overall and has produced two next-out stakes winners including fifth finisher Marquee Prince, who was part of the Springboard Mile pace as well and came back to earn a big figure top next time on the grass. Selection: #11 Dunph (20-1).
El Camino Real Derby – I guess I used up all my creativity in the Risen Star, because I had a hard time getting past Anothertwistafate in here. His two local routes were extremely impressive. Obviously the waters get deeper this time, but he'll either have to regress significantly or someone will have to jump way up to beat him. He seems like one who shouldn't have much trouble stalking if need be, and nine panels shouldn't pose a problem with all that Juddmonte pedigree on the bottom. Selection: #4 Anothertwistafate (5-2).
Click for Risen Star & El Camino Real Derby Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com.
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