By T. D. Thornton
You might call it a nice bit of honest thievery that earned Diversify (Bellamy Road) the wire-to-wire win in Saturday's
GI Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park.
It was no secret going into the race that this New York-bred 'TDN Rising Star' would attempt to seize the lead and wing it on the front end for as far as he could over 10 furlongs. Diversify and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. executed their part of the plan flawlessly, opening up by three lengths in the initial stages before settling willingly into a rhythmic backstretch run through moderate splits about two lengths ahead of the pack.
Furlong after furlong, Diversify's head-of-affairs tactics were aided by an absence of internal pressure from the perceived main dangers in the JCGC field, most of whom were closers known for firing their best shots in the latter stages.
By the time Keen Ice (Curlin) and Pavel (Creative Cause) unleashed their stretch bids, Diversify still had a two-length cushion backed up by untapped reserves of stamina, and he churned through the homestretch willingly maintaining a safe margin that got whittled down to one length at the wire.
In terms of the JCGC's impact on the Nov. 4 GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar, it is possible that the only challenger to emerge out of this bunch willing to take on the likes of Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) and Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) will be runner-up Keen Ice. Despite a 3-for-24 lifetime record, the 5-year-old is a reliable check-earner whose lifetime earnings now top $3.4 million.
The connections of Diversify are taking a wait-and-see approach to the “Win and You're In” berth the 4-year-old gelding earned on Saturday. A more logical spot might end up being the GI Cigar Mile H. on Dec. 2 at Aqueduct.
Pavel's pair of wins from four lifetime starts have come at shorter distances. Considering the JCGC third-place finisher broke his maiden on debut relatively late in his 3-year-old season (July 1), wheeling right back in another 10-furlong try against the world's best might be asking a bit much of the colt.
The “blinkers on” experiment for Good Samaritan (Harlan's Holiday) did not yield the desired result of getting the colt into the race a little earlier, and his rally from seventh only earned a too little/too late fourth. Trainer Bill Mott indicated Good Samaritan would return to training up in Saratoga and was unlikely for any Breeders' Cup race. A switch back to grass (where he started his first six races) could be in his future.
Go West, Young Guns
The two winners of this past Saturday's marquee stakes for 2-year-old males both exit a common stakes at Saratoga Race Course earlier this season, and Firenze Fire (Poseidon's Warrior) and Free Drop Billy (Union Rags) are on target to square off again in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Firenze Fire won the GI Champagne S. at Belmont, prevailing with a smart, off-the-pace performance. After breaking alertly and responding kindly to being rated near the back of the main body of the field, he uncorked a prolonged rally at the half-mile pole and sustained it with good energy through the length of the homestretch despite needing to loop the field turning for home.
Free Drop Billy stalked the pace from fifth in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland Race Course, opening up late in the lane to expand his winning margin to four lengths at the wire over second-through-fourth finishers whose odds were 47-1, 17-1, and 21-1, respectively. The race was marred on the far turn when top contender Ten City (Run Away and Hide) suffered a left leg fracture shortly after making the lead. Ten City was pulled up and was later euthanized.
In the GIII Sanford S. on opening weekend at Saratoga, the 12-1 Firenze Fire upset the 3-1 favorite Free Drop Billy by a length, but the top two were well clear of their overmatched rivals by 5 1/4 lengths.
The connections of both colts indicated that they are willing to take advantage of the “Win and You're In” expenses-paid berths into the Breeders' Cup.
Takeout Up, Handle Down at Keeneland
All-sources betting handle at Keeneland for the first three days of the 2017 fall meet was down $5,121,572, representing a 15% drop over the same period in 2016.
The handle figures are being closely watched throughout the industry because this is the first race meet since Keeneland announced in August that it would be increasing the takeout on straight wagers from 16 to 17.5% and raising the takeout on most exotic wagers from 19 to 22%.
The Horseplayers Association of North America is backing a Keeneland betting boycott in response to the takeout increases.
Day-vs.-day handle comparisons follow. The number of races on each day (10) was unchanged from 2016 to 2017. In 2016 there were 300 individual betting interests over the first three days; in 2017 there were 286. The Sunday card in 2017 was conducted in rainy conditions with three turf races moved to the “sloppy” main track:
· First Friday of the meet: $8,585,991 in 2016; $8,756,823 in 2017.
· First Saturday of the meet: $15,926,396 in 2016; $13,582,086 in 2017.
· First Sunday of the meet: $9,526,075 in 2016; $6,577,981 in 2017.
· Total handle through first three days: $34,038,462 in 2016; $28,916,890 in 2017.
Steve May, the director of pari-mutuel wagering for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, provided the handle figures via email.
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