The TDN Kentucky Derby Wrap, Presented by WinStar Farm

This week's TDN Top 20 examines the GI Kentucky Derby runners according to finish position. Only several Derby participants are likely to contend the GI Preakness S. The remainder are in regroup/rest mode, while several could be GI Belmont S. candidates.

1) JUSTIFY (c, Scat Daddy–Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
'TDN Rising Star' O-China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight Racing & WinStar Farm. B- John D. Gunther (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $500,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $2,098,000.
Justify's emphatic, real-deal Derby victory comes with no excuses or caveats to suggest that it was anything other than a world-class unveiling for a potentially crop-defining phenom. The field of 20? The slop? The demanding 10-furlong distance? The burden of favoritism on such a lightly raced but highly hyped contender? None of these were issues for this undefeated, long-reaching $500,000 KEESEP Scat Daddy colt who toyed with a deeply talented field on Derby day with the precision of a tightly torqued metronome. This 'TDN Rising Star' assertively pressured an aggressive pacemaker through fast splits while maintaining the composure of a much older, well-seasoned stakes competitor, enabling Justify to take aim and get first run on the tiring Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford) when, where, and exactly how jockey Mike Smith wanted. Justify was still hand ridden through the far turn while repulsing a two-pronged attack from an all-out Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) and then a relentless Good Magic (Curlin), and when Smith finally set his colt down straightening for home the response was rapid, fluid, and probably did not scrape the bottom of this brawny chestnut's ample stamina reserve. Beyond a “minor” skin irritation that was causing Justify some superficial discomfort on the morning after the Derby, trainer Bob Baffert said the colt emerged from the race healthy and will plan for an assault on Baltimore, where his commanding presence is likely to scare away most of the Derby rivals who finished in his muddy wake on Saturday.

2) GOOD MAGIC (c, Curlin">Curlin—Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
O-e Five Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 6-2-3-1, $2,255,000.
Good Magic ran what would have amounted to a winning Derby in almost any other year. He broke on cue, settled willingly the first time past the stands, and stalked two paths off the rail while just behind the top two pacemakers into the clubhouse turn. This million-dollar KEESEP Curlin colt was surrounded on both sides down the backside, then appeared to back off a beat entering the far turn, but jockey Jose Ortiz was just biding his time to get out and around foes, and Good Magic re-accelerated to motor past a fading Bolt d'Oro while setting his sights on Justify. He loomed as a legit threat to the eventual winner off the turn, but three-sixteenths out he showed his first signs of cracking by wandering slightly to the outside. Good Magic stayed on well, but could then get no closer than two lengths to Justify in the final furlong. Trainer Chad Brown said that minor hesitation on the far turn “probably cost us a couple lengths, but I still can't imagine a scenario where Justify wouldn't have still been able to fend us off.” Good Magic is considered possible right now for the Preakness (a race his sire won in 2007). But Brown added that he doesn't “see a mile and a half for this horse,” so the Belmont is out.

3) AUDIBLE (c, Into Mischief–Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
O-WinStar, China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing. B-Oak Bluff Stables LLC (NY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $175,000 FTNSAR yrl '16; $500,000 FTFMAR 2yo '17. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 6-4-0-2, $1,082,920.
Of all the horses reported to have had a hard time handling the track and sloppy kickback, Audible ran the best. This $500,000 FTFMAR son of Into Mischief was away alertly from the gate but couldn't maintain an up-front position as jockey Javier Castellano opted to drop him back a few spots in the field in an attempt to get him to settle. He was tenth into the first turn with an inside position, and midway down the backstretch he was the leader of a loosely formed second flight. Audible came off the rail and advanced methodically, hitting another gear three-eighths out, then reclaimed a fence position while momentarily pausing for several strides so he wouldn't be caught on the heels of the caving Promises Fulfilled. He straightened away with good energy once there were only two horses ahead of him in the lane but could not close the gap. “Javier said he thought he might have been on the best horse if he could have got going earlier,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. The colt is currently uncommitted to a next start.

4) INSTILLED REGARD (c, Arch–Enhancing, by Forestry)
O-OXO Equine LLC. B-KatieRich Farms (KY). T-Jerry Hollendorfer. Sales History: $110,000 RNA yrl KEESEP '16; $1,050,000 2yo OBSMAR '17. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 8-2-2-1, $394,000.
This $1.05 million OBSMAR son of Arch gets the award for outrunning his odds (85-1). This could have been a lost cause from the start when he got forced into the auxiliary gate gap at the break and jockey Drayden Van Dyke had a hard time picking a comfortable back-of-pack spot to settle. Instilled Regard had just three horses beaten into the first turn, then continued on the straightaway far back and covered up. No gaps for attack materialized for most of the backstretch run, then about a half mile out Van Dyke got to work, aggressively seizing small openings, and by the time the field hit the far bend Instilled Regard had built up nice momentum while picking off half the pack. But he was still a good nine lengths off the still-gunning leaders turning for home, and while Van Dyke did opportunistically keep slicing through gaps created by tiring horses in the lane, Instilled Regard was not in the same league as the top three under the wire. But it was a credible effort, and the colt will now get a 30-day freshening at Taylor Made Farm in Kentucky according to assistant trainer Christina Jelm.

5) MY BOY JACK (c, Creative Cause—Gold N Shaft, by Mineshaft)
O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoy Stables LLC. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales History: $14,000 RNA wlg KEENOV '15; $20,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 11-3-3-2, $705,145.
My Boy Jack was the most dramatic bet-down of the Derby, from 30-1 on the morning line to 6-1. It was probably a combination of his good mud form, being a closer in a speed-laden race, and all the “casual” money from every bettor in America who has a relative named Jack. This $20,000 KEESEP Creative Cause was next to last for most of the trip but did let loose with a churning bid about a half mile from home. Three-eighths out, jockey Kent Desormeaux said “I had a wall of horses come back into me. He got stopped dry. My argument, in the end, would be that he probably would have been third.” Trainer Keith Desormeaux reported Sunday that “Jack” exited the race with minor front leg cuts and scrapes and that the colt will get a break after three tough races in six weeks.

6) BRAVAZO (c, Awesome Again—Tiz o' Gold, by Cee's Tizzy)
O/B-Calumet Farm. T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 9-3-1-1, $436,528.
Bravazo ran a very credible sixth and handled the Derby slop quite adeptly according to jockey Luis Contreras. At the gate break, this Awesome Again homebred managed to spurt out ahead of the crowding from outside, but he was quickly boxed by horses in front and to both sides and had to ease back a bit. Bravazo got floated out to the five path midway through the first bend, raced at the midpoint of the pack for most of the backstretch run, then uncorked a smart rally into the far turn, again while giving up coveted real estate about five paths off the fence. He kept on plugging away in the lane while not making up ground on superior horses, but never packed it in or appeared discouraged at any point. It's on to the Preakness for this Calumet color bearer, who could turn out to be an overachieving sort as the spring morphs into summer.

7) HOFBURG (c, Tapit&log=">Tapit-Soothing Touch, by Touch Gold)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-1-0, $227,950.
Hofburg's seventh in the Derby rates as a much-better-than-it-looks effort, especially factoring in his relative inexperience. He took up a back-of-the-pack position two paths off the rail early and was walled up on the backstretch without displaying any willingness to knife through between horses. This Tapit homebred was nudged along while committed to an inside bid, then got shuffled back at the far turn entrance as rail-running horses backed up in front of him and a flash of closers blew by on his outside. By the time Irad Ortiz Jr. angled him widest for the homestretch run, Hofburg was too far back to make an impact. But there is no questioning his late-race momentum, and it's worth noting he sailed past every other horse on the gallop-out. A Preakness try is not under consideration, but “naturally, we have to think about the Belmont,” trainer Bill Mott said on Sunday.

8) LONE SAILOR (c, Majestic Warrior-Ambitious, by Mr. Greeley)
O-GMB Racing. B-Alexander-Groves-Matz, LLC (KY). T-Thomas Amoss. Sales history: $120,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-1-3-1, $334,237.
Lone Sailor was bet down to half of his realistic 50-1 morning line odds, which I can only attribute to bettors giving him generous credit for a blowout win when sprinting in the slop at Saratoga last summer. Jockey James Graham dropped him right down onto the inside rail upon leaving the gate, and he deserves credit for saving ground and edging incrementally closer down the backstretch run before clicking into a faster gear about a half mile out. But when the stalkers and closers moved en masse three-eighths out and the speed stalled near the rail, Lone Sailor's sweet inside spot became a liability and he quickly went from being momentarily steadied to being shuffled back three or four positions within just a few strides. This colt should be a capable stakes competitor at shorter distances and at a slightly lower class level as the season progresses.

9) VINO ROSSO (c, Curlin">Curlin–Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire})
O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable. B- John D. Gunther (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $410,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-0-1, $620,500.
This $410,000 KEESEP Curlin colt never looked comfortable in the back of the pack taking a spray of slop and he could only muster a mild bid after getting parked four, then five wide on both turns. “Vino Rosso just didn't like the track. Not at all,” trainer Todd Pletcher said Sunday. “We had to flush a lot of dirt and mud out of all their eyes [Saturday] night, but I don't ever remember flushing more mud out of a horse's eyes that we did with him. We were still flushing it out [Sunday] morning. The Belmont S. is now the next likely start for this colt “The horse is bred for it and he'll be going there,” Pletcher said.

10) SOLOMINI (c, Curlin">Curlin-Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
O-Zayat Stables LLC. B-Glenna R. Salyer (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $270,000 KEESEP '16 yrl. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 7-1-3-2, $752,000
Solomini's last-to-first strategy didn't pan out in the Derby, but the slop was not an excuse for this $270,000 KEESEP Curlin colt, according to jockey Flavien Prat. “The track didn't bother him. We stayed on the fence and made a nice run at the end. He ran the way he was supposed to.” Or, as trainer Bob Baffert put it, with a nod to 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird (Birdstone), “He gave him the Calvin Borel ride: Let him back, put him on the rail, and he beat half of them. We're thinking he might be a horse for the Belmont.”

11) FIRENZE FIRE (c, Poseidon's Warrior–My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
O/B-Mr. Amore Stables (FL). T-Jason Servis. Lifetime Record: GISW, 10-4-1-0, $669,100.
Firenze Fire overcame the rail post position and a sea of slop to run as hard as he could for as long as he could, and this rates as an admirable effort considering he was up against the grain of things in the Derby pedigree-wise and class-wise. This Poseidon's Warrior homebred fought for early position and did not at all look intimidated while pocketed through the first turn, and all the way down the backstretch he kept inching up to the aggressive frontrunners through demanding fractions. He finally cracked inside the quarter pole but did not come completely unglued, demonstrating a tenacity that should serve him well deeper into the season, perhaps at a sweet spot of seven or eight furlongs.

12) BOLT D'ORO (c, Medaglia d'Oro&log=">Medaglia d'Oro—Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
O-Ruis Racing. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Mick Ruis. Sales History: $630,000 yrl FTSAUG '16. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-4-1-1, $1,016,000.
Caulfield on Bolt d'Oro.
Bolt d'Oro was always in the Derby hunt, but he simply wasn't strong enough to seal the deal. This $630,000 FTSAUG Medaglia d'Oro colt broke alertly and was probably a touch closer to a hot pace than expected, but that tactic also put him in a nice outside stalking spot while avoiding most of the sloppy kickback. At all times down the backstretch “Bolt” appeared primed to pounce, and he actually looked like a winner three-eighths out when he attempted to follow Justify's bold bid. But a few strides later, when Good Magic swooped in with his powerful move, Bolt was already being shoved on for run and was briefly ridden with the whip before Victor Espinoza sensed the colt had little left to give, and he switched into “protect” mode for the balance of the stretch run. “I had a great trip. I just didn't have enough horse to run with them,” Espinoza said. As trainer Mick Ruis summed, “when the real running started, he just didn't have it.” Bolt will unwind a bit before being pointed toward the Aug. 18 GI Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

13) FLAMEAWAY (c, Scat Daddy—Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus)
O-John Oxley; B-Phoenix Rising Farms (ON). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $150,000 yrl KEEJAN '16; $400,000 yrl SARAUG '16. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 10-5-2-0, $704,834.
Flameaway broke alertly but was outgunned for the lead. This $400,000 FTSAUG Scat Daddy colt went into stalk mode while ambitiously third down near the inside but offered little response when cued to quicken into the far turn. “He was running well, and [jockey] Jose [Lezcano] said at the half-mile pole he kind of acted funny,” trainer Mark Casse said on Sunday. “And then I watched the replay–he stayed on his left lead until about the eighth pole, and when he switched to his right lead he took a funny step, or I think he may have been just exhausted. But when we got him back [Saturday] night he was fine, so I'm hoping he'll be OK.” Canadian-bred Flameaway is likely bound for Woodbine, where he could get one prep prior to targeting the June 30 Queen's Plate S.

14) ENTICED (c, Medaglia d'Oro&log=">Medaglia d'Oro—It's Tricky, by Mineshaft)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Kiaran McLaughlin. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 7-3-1-1, $595,680.
One of the chief questions about Enticed heading into the Derby centered on whether he's an aggressively nimble enough horse to make his own breaks and adapt to in-race adversity in a large field. Mud was something he had handled once before, but the slop on Derby day was a different beast unto itself, and this big-striding Medaglia d'Oro homebred never looked in it to win it while getting bumped, brushed, jostled, and eventually fanning five wide into the lane. The GI Travers S. now becomes a logical mid-season goal.

15) PROMISES FULFILLED (c, Shackleford—Marquee Delivery, by Marquetry)
O-Robert J. Baron. B-David Jacobs (KY). T-Dale Romans. Sales history: $37,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-0-1, $337,280.
As the innermost-drawn speed horse in the Derby, Promises Fulfilled shot right to the top and flashed past the Twin Spires in front as expected for the first run past the stands. But the pace was demanding and daunting favorite Justify bore down on him every step of the trip, and this $37,000 KEESEP son of Shackleford retreated without causing too much traffic backup once his dirty work was done. Early gas is the undeniable strong suit for Promises Fulfilled, and he'll likely be able to hone his frontrunning tactics to a finer point against Grade II or III competition as the 3-year-old season unfolds before seeing if he can regain a foothold against the A-level tier of the sophomore division.

16) FREE DROP BILLY (c, Union Rags&log=">Union Rags—Trensa, by Giant's Causeway)
O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revokable Trust (KY). T-Dale Romans. Sales history: $200,000 KEESEP yrl '16. Lifetime Record: GISW, 9-2-3-2, $625,220.
Free Drop Billy broke a stutter-step slow but recovered well enough to secure a ground-saving spot into the first turn. This $200,000 KEESEP Union Rags colt emerged ninth on the backstretch run, but the field was so tightly bunched he was only about six lengths off the lead—much closer to a frenetic early pace than expected. He held his position until about a half mile out, but when roused for run offered little response while drifting backwards through the pack. I suspect he'll find his niche and some confidence moving forward with a dose of class relief.

17) NOBLE INDY (c, Take Charge Indy–Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
O-WinStar Farm LLC & Repole Stable. B-WinStar Farm LLC. T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $45,000 RNA yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $691,600.
Caulfield on Noble Indy.
It probably wouldn't be wise to hold 'TDN Rising Star' Noble Indy's 17th-place Derby performance against him when he next resurfaces in the entries. He's lightly raced, drew into the auxiliary gate, and was simply facing far better, more seasoned rivals coming off a six-week gap. This $45,000 KEESEP Take Charge Indy colt was forwardly placed, and jockey Florent Geroux spent a good part of the first quarter mile of the Derby looking back and to his left to see if and where could drop in to save some ground. With no opening presenting itself, Noble Indy had to settle for a six, then seven-wide bid into the first turn, and he remained a few paths off the rail for the backstretch run while unable to assert himself with any spark before backing off. Geroux said the wet track was not to the colt's liking; trainer Todd Pletcher added that “Noble Indy got the trip we wanted. He just wasn't up to it in the end.”

18) COMBATANT (c, Scat Daddy–Border Dispute, by Boundary)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Willis Horton Racing LLC. B-Paget Bloodstock. T-Steven Asmussen. Sales history: $320,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 8-1-3-1, $388,550.
Combatant drew wide in gate 20, and after breaking a step slowly, all of a sudden there was a three-horse gulf to his immediate inside as crowding occurred to his left. Ricardo Santana Jr. coaxed him ahead to narrow that gap, but this $320,000 KEESEP Scat Daddy colt still ended up widest through the stretch the first time before getting hung out in the six path entering the initial turn. He remained widest through the backside journey, and also lost ground through the far turn while never really entering contention. “I tried to get him into the best spot I could breaking from that far out but he never really handled the kickback,” Santana said.

19) MAGNUM MOON (c, Malibu Moon–Dazzling Song, by Unbridled's Song)
'TDN Rising Star' O-Robert E. & Lawana L. Low. B-Ramona S. Bass, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $380,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,177,800. 
Caulfield on Magnum Moon.
'TDN Rising Star' Magnum Moon's Derby fate was pretty much sealed after the first furlong. He veered in at the start, was soon blocked and boxed, and had to check back off heels before attempting to settle near the back. This $380,000 KEESEP Malibu Moon colt never gained a launching spot to blast into contention, and was definitively out of the hunt by the time the field hit the half mile pole. “He broke and put his ears back. A couple of jumps after the start, everyone was on top of me and I couldn't get the spot I wanted,” jockey Luis Saez said. “I didn't think liked the track either.” As a May 9 foal, he can be expected to mature some prior to embarking upon a campaign for the rest of the season.

20) MENDELSSOHN (c, Scat Daddy—Leslie's Lady, by Tricky Creek)
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith.
B-Clarkland Farm (KY). T-Aiden O'Brien. Sales history: $3,000,000 yrl KEESEP '16. Lifetime Record: GISW, 8-4-1-0, $1,961,137.
Clearly, this was not the Mendelssohn anyone expected. But running last in the Derby is not the end of the world considering the reportedly rough time he had shipping from Europe, the in-race adversity of the Derby itself, and the promise this $3 million KEESEP Scat Daddy colt had flashed in earlier races. “He just got knocked over coming out of the gate and then he got knocked over again going into the first bend, but he'll be fine,” said trainer Aidan O'Brien. “He was never used to getting that much kickback. It's a totally different experience, you know, so we'll be fine. We'll take him home [to Ireland] and give him a break and come back [for the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, which will also be run at Churchill Downs].”