Pedigree Insights: Winter

Game of Thrones aficionados have known for several years that Winter Is Coming. It looks as though a select group of optimists also knew that Galileo's daughter Winter was coming into very good form in the run up to the G1 QIPCO 1000 Guineas. Having been available at odds as long as 33-1 at the start of last week, Winter was backed down to 9-1 and the gamble paid off, with the grey taking full advantage of the traffic problems suffered by her stablemate Rhododendron to score by two lengths. Although a winner of only an all-weather maiden from four previous starts, she had shown plenty of potential in running Hydrangea–a proven Group 1 performer–to a head in the G3 1000 Guineas Trial a month earlier.

In siring first and second in the 1000 Guineas, Galileo did nearly as well as last year, when Minding, Ballydoyle and Alice Springs gave him a remarkable 1-2-3. Galileo has also been responsible for the 1000 Guineas runners-up Cuis Ghaire and Together.

Of course Winter's win came only a day after the G1 2000 Guineas, in which Galileo's unbeaten son Churchill proved too strong for Barney Roy, a colt produced by Galileo's daughter Alina. Churchill follows Frankel and Gleneagles as Galileo's third 2000 Guineas winner of the last seven years, but don't forget that the 2014 and 2016 winners, Night of Thunder and Galileo Gold, were produced by Galileo mares or that the 2013 winner, Dawn Approach, was by a son of Galileo.

Clearly anyone who believes that Galileo is purely a source of stamina will have to think again, though it must be said that he usually needs mares with plenty of speed in their backgrounds if his progeny are to shine at up to a mile. This is underlined by the fact that, of the Guineas horses mentioned above, Frankel and Cuis Ghaire have dams by Danehill; Churchill, Gleneagles and Ballydoyle are out of Storm Cat mares; Rhododendron has a dam by the top sprinter Pivotal; and Minding and Alice Springs are out of Danehill Dancer mares. Winter takes the Danehill connection one step further, as her dam Laddies Poker Two is by Danehill Dancer's tremendously fast son Choisir.

As was pointed out in the pedigree notes in yesterday's TDN, Laddies Poker Two landed a major gamble when she won the 2010 Wokingham H. as a 5-year-old, covering the six furlongs in faster time than that achieved by another of Choisir's progeny, Starspangledbanner, in the preceding G1 Golden Jubilee S.

Another remarkable aspect of Laddies Poker Two's Wokingham success was that it came after a 20-month absence from the racecourse. She had managed only four previous starts, all as a 3-year-old, her finest previous moment coming when she won a valuable six-furlong handicap at Ascot. She clearly wasn't easy to train, as her Wokingham effort was her only appearance of 2010 and she never raced in 2011, although she was kept in training as a 6-year-old with Jeremy Noseda.

Laddies Poker Two's career highlights the dangers of relying solely on the black-type system as an indicator of talent. Her failure to earn black type is amply contradicted by her Timeform ratings of 106 at three and 117 at five. In view of Ladies Poker Two's prowess as a sprinter, it might be tempting to think that a mile will prove to be Winter's optimum trip, but it is rarely that simple where Galileo is concerned. He once sired a colt whose dam Laurel Delight made 24 of her 25 appearances over five furlongs and was a half-sister to the very fast Paris House, That foal, of course, was Cape Blanco, winner of the G1 Irish Derby.

Needless to say, there were some strong staying elements to be found in the further reaches of Cape Blanco's pedigree, but you will struggle to find similar stamina in the bottom half of Winter's pedigree. Choisir made his name by completing the G2 King's Stand S./G1 Golden Jubilee double at Royal Ascot in 2003 (when, coincidentally, his main rival in the Golden Jubilee was Airwave, the second dam of Churchill). Although Choisir has occasionally come up with middle distance performers, including winners of the Hong Kong Derby and South Australian Derby, he is known primarily as a sire of precocious stock which shine at a mile or less, such as The Last Lion, Starspangledbanner, Olympic Glory and Obviously. Choisir is currently having a good time with his Australian juveniles, which include the Group 1 winner The Mission (inbred 3 x 3 to Danehill).

The best previous winner out of a Choisir mare is My Dream Boat, who outstayed his pedigree when he landed the G1 Prince of Wales's S., so it is possible that Winter will also eventually stay a mile and a quarter, even though she descends from the terrifically speedy Caterina. This grey filly tackled her elders in the Nunthorpe S. as a 2-year-old and for much of the race she appeared to have them beaten, only to be caught close home by Polyfoto. Caterina trained on so well that she made amends in the following year's Nunthorpe, leading throughout to defeat the July Cup winner Lucasland.

Sent to the U.S. for her broodmare career, Caterina continued to shine. Three of her four stakes winners were by the remarkably versatile Olden Times, who won the San Juan Capistrano H. over a mile and three-quarters as a 4-year-old, plus the seven-furlong Churchill Downs H. and the Met Mile as a 6-year-old.

Two of Caterina's three Olden Times stakes winners are worthy of mention. One, the very tough and durable Cricket Ball, was a four-time winner of the G3 Prix de Meautry over six furlongs and also won the G2 Prix Maurice de Gheest during an excellent campaign as a 6-year-old. The other, Winter's fourth dam Ancient Regime, won the G1 Prix Morny at two and was again very smart over sprint distances at three, after finishing fourth in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches.

Ancient Regime succeeded in passing on the family's speed. She produced the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye runner-up La Grande Epoque to Lyphard, the smart 2-year-old Crack Regiment to El Gran Senor and the smart seven furlong and a mile performer Rami to Riverman. Lyphard and El Gran Senor respectively won at up to 1 5/16 miles and a mile and a half, but failed to pass on much stamina to their foals out of Ancient Regime. Winter's third dam, Quelle Affaire, was a non-winning sister to Rami, as well as being closely related to La Grande Epoque's Riverman colt Matelot, who was very useful at around seven furlongs.

Little stamina was added to the mix when Quelle Affaire visited Favorite Trick to produce Winter's second dam, the unraced Break of Day. A son of the flying Phone Trick, Favorite Trick did so well as a 2-year-old that he was named Horse of the Year. Having started with victories over 4 1/2, 5 and 5 1/2 furlongs, he progressed to win the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile over an extended mile.

Phone Trick's name links to two group winners by Galileo's Derby-winning son New Approach, as his daughter Hymn of the Dawn produced Dawn Approach, a 2000 Guineas winner who gave himself little chance of staying in the Derby, and Herald The Dawn.

None of this gives me much confidence that Winter will stay the mile and a half of the Oaks, for which she is third favourite. I was about to say that I would be more confident that the favourite, Rhododendron, will get the trip, as her dam Halfway to Heaven was a Group 1 winner at up to a mile and a quarter. But even here the filly will need to have inherited a measure of Galileo's stamina, as Halfway to Heaven's parents Pivotal and Cassandra Go both won the G2 King's Stand S. over five furlongs.

It is very much the same story with Churchill when assessing his chances of staying the Derby distance. Churchill's dam Meow led for much of the way when beaten only a neck in the G2 Queen Mary S. and then was never headed when she took a five-furlong listed race at The Curragh. Speed was also the main asset of Meow's dam Airwave, as she showed in winning the G1 Cheveley Park S. and G2 Temple S. However, Airwave later proved she stayed a mile in winning the G2 Ridgewood Pearl S. Churchill is closely related to Aloof and Orator, two stakes winners by Galileo out of Airwave. Both won at around a mile and a quarter, with the tough Aloof scoring at Group 3 level, but Jwala, Airwave's half-sister by Oasis Dream, won the G1 Nunthorpe S. over five furlongs. It would make more sense for Coolmore to look to its more stoutly-bred Galileo colts, such as the three who dominated the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial two days ago.