By Bill Finley
While it may seem like sacrilege to have the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass now designated Grade II races, the TOBA American Graded Stakes committee did the right thing by downgrading these races. There are way too many graded stakes races in this country and not nearly enough top horses to adequately fill them. If anything, TOBA didn't go far enough when it comes to downgrading races or dropping their graded status all together.
As things had stood, there were five Grade I races–the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass–for 3-year-old males run within two weeks of one another, all of them preps for the GI Kentucky Derby. Since no horse would run in anymore than one of those spots, it's obvious that there simply isn't enough quality to go around to fill all of those races with horses that deserve to be considered Grade I winners should they cross the finish line first. Something had to give and if not, the graded stakes system would have lost its credibility. That can't happen.
Over the last many years, the Florida Derby and the Santa Anita Derby have been the two strongest preps for the Kentucky Derby. Keeping them at the Grade I level was a no-brainer. Since 2005, four Derby winners have come out of the Florida Derby and three from the Santa Anita Derby. Of the three remaining preps, there probably was some rather serious debate among the committee as to which ones to downgrade and how many. As the Wood Memorial hasn't produced a Derby winner since Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) in 2003 it was probably the easiest and most obvious cut. Should the Blue Grass have gotten chopped, as well? Did the Arkansas Derby deserve to be downgraded? Those are tough questions, but the graded stakes committee handled a difficult, politically charged situation as well as could be expected.
It also corrected a mistake that had been a long time in coming, upgrading the Pennsylvania Derby to a Grade I. Outside of the Triple Crown races, that race is consistently as good as any Grade I 3-year-old race run in the country. With the Pennsylvania Derby gaining Grade I status and with the Mother Goose being downgraded to a Grade II, there will be two fewer Grade I stakes in the U.S. in 2017. The new number is 107.
Kentucky Downs, with its massive purses and quality racing, also got what it deserved–two more graded stakes races added to its schedule in the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint and Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, now both Grade III races.
But the story here should be about subtraction and not addition. The TOBA committee didn't go nearly far enough when it came to making cuts. In 2016, there were 464 graded stakes races. In 2017, there will be the same 464 graded stakes races. That's way too many.
Most likely, the committee members didn't want to rock the boat too much, too soon. What they did, though, is send a message–if they are willing to downgrade races as prestigious as the Blue Grass and the Wood Memorial they're not afraid to take the knife to a lot more races in the future.
The numbers get a little tricky because TOBA graded Canadian races up until 1997, but they still tell a story. In 1986, there were 51,296 foals and 407 graded stakes, including 116 Grade I's. In 2000, there were 34,724 foals and 474 graded stakes, including 96 Grade I's. In 2016, the foal crop was down to 20,300, yet there were more graded stakes at 464 than there were when 50,000 plus foals were born 30 years earlier.
The biggest decline in the foal crop in recent years has come at the bottom rung. The lesser sires are getting fewer and fewer mares all the time, while the Tapits, Curlins and Uncle Mos of the world are doing just fine. So, it can be argued that the reductions are more a matter of quantity than quality. It can also be argued that it's insane to have more graded stakes now than 30 years ago when there has been a 39.6% reduction in the foal crop during that time.
It's not at all unreasonable to argue that the number of graded stakes races and number of Grade I's needs to be reduced by at least 20%. Some races, the Triple Crown events, the Travers, The Santa Anita Derby, the Pacific Classic, et. al. are untouchable. Some are not. The United Nations? The La Troienne, the La Brea? Are those really Grade I races? NYRA should even be worried about the venerable GI Jockey Club Gold Cup. As more and more horses are going into the Breeders' Cup off of freshenings, that's a race that isn't nearly what it used to be.
Do Grade III races like the Oklahoma Derby, the Discovery, the Dania Beach, the American Derby, the Torrey Pines still deserve graded status?
What TOBA did this year with the Wood and Blue Grass is unfortunate, as they are great races with important histories. But downgrading them was a necessary step and, hopefully, the first shot fired in a battle to dramatically reduce the inflated number of graded stakes we have in this country.
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