Guineas Time

Most years, the first English Classics, the one-mile G1 English 2000 Guineas, for colts, and the G1 English 1000 Guineas, for fillies, are run on the same weekend as the GI Kentucky Oaks and GI Kentucky Derby, but because of the vagaries of the calendar this year, the two Guineas races will be run at Newmarket this weekend–colts Saturday, fillies Sunday– whereas the Kentucky Classics will be the following weekend. No doubt it's because the European turf flat season has really only been underway for the last month, so it rather feels sometimes like all of a sudden, here we are; feelings no doubt reinforced by a particularly cold or wet April, and also by the fact that the main protagonists for the opening mile Classics now almost always go straight to the Guineas, without a prep race–as is the case again this year.

Ballydoyle's champion European 2-year-old of 2015, Air Force Blue (War Front), won four of his five starts let year, losing only when second to Buratino (Exceed and Excel) in the G2 Coventry S. at Royal Ascot in June in his second start. Thereafter he ripped off decisive wins in three consecutive Group 1 races: the Phoenix S. at six furlongs at the Curragh; the National S., Ireland's most important 2-year-old-race, by three lengths over Dawn Approach's brother, Herald The Dawn (New Approach); and the Dewhurst S., Europe's most important 2-year-old race, by 3 1/4 lengths over Sheikh Hamdan's Maassat (Teofilo). He ran RPR's of 122 in the National S. and 125 in the Dewhurst. Air Force Blue has been odds-on for the Guineas most of the winter, and is now a 7-10 favorite on Betfair. The trainer was heard to remark the other day the colt has so much speed he wouldn't be guaranteed to stay a mile, but having won the Dewhurst over seven on the same course, Air Force Blue is about 4-5 lengths clear on ratings. Stormy Antarctic (Stormy Atlantic), winner of the G3 Craven S. (RPR 116), is a tepid 7-1 second choice. The only others trading at under 20-1 are: Marcel (Lawman), upset 33-1 winner of the G1 Racing Post Trophy (RPR 118), who was 14-1 on Betfair yesterday; Dewhurst second (RPR 116) Massaat (17-1); and Buratino (17-1), who stayed at six furlongs after the G2 Coventry, running third behind Air Force Blue and Washington DC (Zoffany) in the G1 Phoenix S., then second (RPR 117) to the now-sidelined Shalaa (Invincible Spirit) in the G1 Middle Park S. Only Stormy Antarctic has run this year.

Sunday's G1 English 1000 Guineas for fillies seems more intriguing, at least in that there seem to be a number of high-class fillies with persuasive form lines. Ballydoyle's Minding (Galileo) was second to Ballydoyle's Ballydoyle (Galileo) (been waiting to do that) in the G2 Debutante S., but reversed the form in the G1 Moyglare Stud S., also at seven furlongs, before scoring a decisive win at Newmarket in the G1 Fillies Mile (RPR 119). Ballydoyle, second in the Moyglare, went to France and won the G1 Marcel Boussac S. (RPR 113) over Turret Rocks (Fastnet Rock), trained by fellow Irishman Jim Bolger, and who had previously won the G2 May Hill S. Then Al Shaqab's Qemah (Danehill Dancer), who had been third in the Boussac, came back to win the G3 Prix de la Grotte last week, the principal prep for the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas). So Minding beat Ballydoyle, who had beaten Turret Rocks and Qemah. Furthermore, when Minding won the Fillies Mile her immediate victim was Nathra (Iffraaj), who came out this year and won the G3 Nell Gwyn S. at Newmarket.

Minding was around 9-5 on Betfair yesterday, with Ballydoyle around 5-1 along with a Shamardal filly who runs in the new silver colors of Dubai's Crown Prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, and is trained by Mark Johnston, named Lumiere. She was a deeply impressive all-the-way winner of the G1 Cheveley Park S. (RPR 114) at six furlongs last autumn, and trainer Johnston has made it pretty clear he thinks she is extra special. Nathra is 10-1, with the Zoffany filly Illuminate, second in the Cheveley Park, then three lengths sixth behind Catch A Glimpse in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland, trading around 20-1, along with Turret Rocks, with another Ballydoyle outsider, Alice Springs (Galileo), at 25-1; she was third to Minding and Ballydoyle in the Ballydoyle trifecta in the Moyglare, then went on to finish a close fourth to Lumiere and Illuminate in the Cheveley Park before finishing runner-up to Catch a Glimpse in the GI Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf at Keeneland, which she might have actually won had she got clear a little earlier. A Ballydoyle trifecta in the 1000 Guineas isn't out of the question, though if Lumiere stays the trip she will be a danger to all.

With the European season only gradually winding up, naturally their second-crop sires (whose first 3-year-olds are now racing) have not yet been generating the earnings, or headlines, of their American counterparts (think Uncle Mo). Though none of the European second-crop sires yet has worldwide earnings even over the $300,000 mark for 2016 (click here–European YTD 2nd-crop sires–worldwide earnings), things will start to change pretty quickly now. What we do know so far is that Coolmore's Leading European freshman sire of 2015, Zoffany (Dansili), appears to be coming back strong. He's already had five black-type horses this month, two Listed winners in Washington DC (Dundalk) and Ventura Storm (9-furlong Feilden S., Newmarket), and three Group 3 seconds, in the Craven S. (Foundation), the re-routed Greenham S. (Knife Edge), and the Fred Darling S. (Light Up The World). That's a good first month of his first 3-year-olds' year, and Washington DC is entered in the six-furlong G3 Pavilion S. at Ascot Wednesday.

Darley's Poet's Voice, Dubawi's second big chance at stud following the improving third-crop sire Makfi, has moved into second spot among European second-crop sires with Poeta Diletto's win in Sunday's G3 Premio Paroli (Italian 2000 Guineas). Roderic O'Connor (Galileo), now at England's National Stud, ranks third, with Coolmore's Canford Cliffs (Tagula) fourth at this very early stage of the season. These are the only European second-crop sires so far with YTD earnings over $200,000 but as we say that is all going to be changing pretty rapidly now.

There was sad news this week at the death of the popular Big Bad Bob, at the age of 16, at the Irish National Stud. He was a legendary rags-to-riches story, by the jumps sire Bob Back, by Roberto. He was a good, tough racehorse, winning four times at two, including the one-mile Listed Autumn S. for trainer John Dunlop, finishing with eight wins, including a Group 3 in Germany, and running a peak RPR of 121. Bred to mostly Mrs. Patino's own mares, he had just 10 foals in his first crop, of which nine started, and eight won or placed, as 2-year-olds, and the story just got better from there. He was moved from Islanmore to the Irish National Stud for the 2011 season, and the great thing was that he 'stood the raise' in numbers in that he sired 2015 G3 winner (and last weekend's Listed winner) Bocca Bacciata and 2015 2-year-old Listed winner and G1 Dewhurst S. fourth Tashweeq from these bigger crops.

But maybe the story isn't over, and not just because there are lot more Bobs to come; no. Also, just about the time Bob's runners were appearing, along came Snow Fairy, out of a half-sister to Big Bad Bob. She won the G1 Epsom and Irish Oaks in 2010 and went on to win six Group 1 races and almost £4-million in all. Even before that, in 2009, Cara Fantasy, who is a Sadler's Wells half-sister to Big Bad Bob's granddam, produced two Group 3 winners in succession: Palavacini, by Giant's Causeway, who became a Group 3 winner; and Elusive Pimpernel, by Elusive Quality, who won the G3 Acomb S. at York and ran second to St. Nicholas Abbey in the G1 Racing Post Trophy as a 2-year-old; came back at three to win the G3 Craven S. and run fifth (to Makfi) in the G1 English 2000 Guineas.

Now, Elusive Pimpernel's first foals are 3-year-olds. After Bocca Bacciata scored a Listed win for Bob on Sunday, trainer Ger Lyons ran a colt named Elusive Heights, by Elusive Pimpernel out of the Group 3 winner Berg Bahn, by Big Bad Bob, in the last race at Naas Monday night, a hot-looking 10-furlong maiden. He won it, too, over a couple of other fancied colts. For you aficionados of inbreeding to one 'tap-root' mare, any foal by Elusive Pimpernel out of a Big Bad Bob mare is inbred 3×5 to the Troy mare, Gay Fantasy; and Elusive Pimpernel also has a yearling filly out of Snow Fairy (also 3×5 to Gay Fantasy). The dream is alive.

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected] (please cc TDN management at [email protected]). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.