Bill Oppenheim: The Foal Market

This is a new wrinkle in our market analysis this year. We know that the yearling sales are a better barometer of the overall auction marketplace than the mixed sales, because the pedigrees of over nearly 10,000 yearlings sold (see the Weekly Sales Ticker from Nov. 15–click here) are more stable, whereas the composition of mares, especially top mares, offered in the mixed sales can vary quite a bit from year to year. This year we have isolated the foals out of the mixed sale market, because 2,500 foals can also provide reliable market indicators. As this week's Sales Ticker shows, with Arqana still to come, the foal market this year totals about $150 million so far, or about 15% of the total as were sold at the yearling sales. From the addition of days at the front of the foal sales at both Goffs and Tattersalls, it's quite plausible to argue that the growth in numbers catalogued in the foal market (24% since 2013) are in the bottom tiers rather than at the top tier of the foal market. So the massive 16% drop in the clearance rate in two years at the Kentucky November (TDN 11-15-15), and the overall 9% drop in the three markets combined, is likely to be concentrated far more at the bottom of the market than at the top. Nonetheless, when we look at the numbers for the three markets combined, only 7% more foals (2492) were sold in 2015 than in 2013, while the number catalogued went up by 24%, the combined gross went up by 18%, and the combined average by 10%.

Just a short update on the European F2015 sires with first foals selling. Coolmore's Declaration of War, now resident at Ashford in Kentucky, is still the overall leader, with 12 averaging $156,069; he has two foals catalogued next week at Arqana. Darley Kildangan's Dawn Approach has had 17 average $116,000 (three at Arqana). Coolmore's Camelot had 16 average $114,364 (none at Arqana); Intello, who stood his first two seasons at Cheveley Park in England but is now at the Haras Du Quesnay, had a couple of six-figure sales on Friday to take his average, for eight sold, to $100,589 (none at Arqana); and Gestut Fahrhof's Maxios, who continues to be the commercial surprise package among this European top five considering his €10,000 stud fee, has had eight foals average $89,442. He has four more catalogued at Deauville.

Today of course kicks off the 'Mares Etc' Sale, but the real fireworks will be tomorrow, when five mares in foal to Dubawi are scheduled to go through the ring. Three of these mares are rising 11 years old: hip 1977, Icon Project, a Grade I winner with a spectacular page, whose first foal to live is just a 2-year-old this year; hip 1986, Time Control, once a 1.2-million guineas yearling by Sadler's Wells and now the dam of Cursory Glance, the best 2-year-old filly in Europe at seven furlongs plus in 2014; and hip 2015, Ever Rigg, carrying a full brother or sister to this year's G1 'King George' winner Postponed. The two younger mares are: hip 2011, Hanky Panky, a stakes-placed half-sister, by Galileo, to Giant's Causeway and You'resothrilling (and therefore a 3/4-sister to Gleneagles, etc.); and hip 2025, Ambivalent, winner of the G1 Pretty Polly S. at the Curragh in 2013. Also scheduled for Tuesday: Group 1 winners Ribbons, Odeliz, and Tiggy Wiggy (the best 2-year-old filly in Europe in 2014 at six furlongs), and this year's G1 Epsom Oaks winner, Qualify. One interesting prospect later Monday night is the dual Group 1-winning South African mare In The Fast Lane, by the top South African sire, Jet Master.

NORTH AMERICAN 2YO SIRES

Sire lists are always informative, and this year's list of North American Sires of 2-Year-Olds (click here) seems especially so. It's always a good idea to be wary of freshman sires: only 40% of a foal crop starts as 2-year-olds, and time and time again we are misled by those impressive early returns by freshman sires, only to find out when they encounter the 100% of the crop which run as 3-year-olds that the bar has been raised, and sometimes jumping the junior bar doesn't mean they're going to clear it at senior level. So I and everybody else have been wrong before and expect to be wrong again–but maybe not in this case.

Ashford's Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) is not only Leading Freshman Sire in North America, he has even surpassed barnmate Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) to hold a half-million dollar lead as Leading North American Sire of 2-Year-Olds. From 64 starters through Saturday's racing, he has 24 winners, seven black-type winners, and 11 black-type horses, and the earners of over $3.5-million. These include three graded stakes winners (six graded stakes horses), two of which are Grade I winners, including undefeated GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Nyquist, a certainty to be named champion 2-year-old male. And what makes us think this isn't another flash-in-the-pan freshman sire? It's somewhat instinct, I must admit; all those years of trying to read the runes. Indian Charlie, Uncle Mo's sire, ended up being a really good sire of 2-year-old dirt class at seven furlongs plus. Uncle Mo was the best he sired, and even though it does all read “2-year-olds” I have a feeling there could be a breakthrough horse here to introduce a third 'dirt' line (along with A.P. Indy and Fappiano) to North American racing.

Scat Daddy really has had a breakthrough year: he's had 77 juvenile runners and 30 winners, eight 2-year-old black-type winners, of which six are graded, and now has just at $3 million in juvenile earnings. If it weren't for Uncle Mo, he'd be a runaway winner himself. Darley's Bernardini (A.P. Indy) has also had a big year with his 2-year-olds, and ranks third on the North American Juvenile Sire List; Saturday's GII Demoiselle winner, Lewis Bay, is his third graded stakes winning 2-year-old this year. The other two are New York Grade I winners Rachel's Valentina and Greenpointcrusader. Gainesway's Tapit (Pulpit), on his way to his second consecutive North American Sire Championship, ranks fourth on the 2-year-old sire list, including Saturday's unbeaten GII Remsen winner Mohaymen. Darley's Medaglia d'Oro (El Prado), a respectful second to Tapit on the General Sire List, is also one place behind him on the Juvenile Sire List, but does have arguably the continent's best 2-year-old of either sex in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Songbird.

Claiborne's War Front (Danzig) ranks sixth by juvenile sire earnings, and has two Group 1 winners for Coolmore: Europe's best 2-year-old Air Force Blue and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit It A Bomb. That is one hot list of juvenile sires. Tapit, meanwhile, has a $5 million lead over Medaglia d'Oro on the North American General Sire List (click here), and also leads the list in number of 2015 winners, as well as in all black-type categories.

Next Column: this coming Saturday, December 5. We're working from the sales calendar at the moment.

Contact Bill Oppenheim at bopp@erb.com (cc suefinley@thetdn.com).