Bill Oppenheim: Florida Juveniles

Both Fasig-Tipton and OBS have tweaked their top 2-year-old sales in the past two years: Fasig finally moved their sale back to the Miami area, now at Gulfstream Park, which met with a lot of approval from their buyers; and OBS expanded their March sale to a 600-horse catalogue, from around 400 previously. Last year the two sales combined catalogued 785 juveniles, of which 415 were listed as sold (53%), for a combined gross of $75.5-million (see the Weekly Sales Ticker for details), and an average just under $182,000. This year, 18 fewer 2-year-olds were catalogued, and there was a 2% drop in the clearance rate, to 51% sold. Between the two sales, this year's gross was $73.2-million, a drop of 3%, while the average went up by 3%, to $187,315. OBS March was off 7% in both gross and average, with exactly the same number (325) sold as last year. So the North American 2-year-old market so far is either stable or stagnant, depending on how you want to look at it. Given continuing low oil prices and a stagnant world economy, we'd say experiencing single-digit declines in horse trading probably qualifies as 'essentially stable.'

We can also note that six 2-year-olds have sold for $1-million or more between the two sales, four at Fasig and two at Ocala. Both sale-toppers, the $1.8-million Tapit colt at Fasig, and the $1.7-million Smart Strike colt at OBS, were bought by entities connected to Lane's End Farm. This is making a statement about trying to acquire future stallions for the farm, that Lane's End is happy enough to gamble that sort of money on these individuals and pedigrees, knowing that if one or both of these does hit, they're ready-made stallions. Time will tell, as it always does, but what's most interesting from a market perspective is that it creates a value level for this sort of strategy.

Three of the other four six-figure colts, including two by Uncle Mo bought in partnership (one in each sale), ended up with Coolmore involvement: they partnered with Stonestreet on a $1-million colt at Fasig, and with Mike Repole, who raced Uncle Mo, in the $1.3-million colt at OBS. They also bought a $1-million colt by Pioneerof the Nile, sire of course of American Pharoah, at Fasig. The other $1-million colt, at Fasig, was a colt by Smart Strike's son Curlin, bought by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa.

Not surprisingly, the five sires of the six seven-figure colts all figure among the top 10 sires by average price paid for their 2-year-olds at the two sales so far (click here). Because of the relatively small numbers involved there aren't many sires which have had, say, 10 or more juveniles sell between the two sales, and plenty have had three or less. Nonetheless, Tapit is the number one sire on average, his three juveniles having averaged $870,000 so far. Lane's End's Twirling Candy, who's had a stack of Black-Type Horses (11 so far) and has been second to Uncle Mo on the second-crop sire list last year and again this year, had his breakthrough horse when Danzing Candy won the GII San Felipe S. Twirling Candy's first crop sold well at the 2-year-old sales last year (18 averaged $186,000), and he's averaged $825,000 for two big sales at OBS: an $850,000 colt to the partnership of Al Shaqab/China Horse Club/WinStar, and an $800,000 filly to Solis/Litt for LNJ Foxwoods. The vibes remain strong for Twirling Candy.

War Front had one colt sell for $675,000, also to Solis/Litt, good for third on the list by average at this early stage. Curlin ranks fourth with four sold for an average of $568,000, while his sire, Smart Strike, ranks fifth, with five sold for an average of $491,000; to be fair, though, most of that was the $1.7-million OBS sale-topper. Giant's Causeway has had two fillies average $467,500, while the late lamented Scat Daddy has had four average $403,750. Uncle Mo has had 15 juveniles sell, including two millionaires, for an overall average of $360,333, ahead of leading first-crop sire Tapizar, whose five to sell have averaged $320,000, including an $800,000 filly at Fasig. Pioneerof the Nile rounds out the top 10 by average, with six selling for an average of $315,500.

Tapizar, winner of the 2012 GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, stands alongside his sire, Tapit, at Gainesway. He ranked fourth among North American first-crop sires of yearlings last year, behind Bodemeister, The Factor, and Union Rags, and had 55 yearlings sell for an average of $95,727, with a median of $90,000, an impressive six times his stud fee. Now he's had an $800,000 2-year-old, and as noted leads 2016 freshman sires by average for the first two sales, with a $320,000 average for five sold. He's a 'market darling', that's for sure. WinStar's Bodemeister has had 13 sell for an average of $257,846. Other 2016 freshman sires with five sold (click here): Lane's End's Union Rags (16, avg $201,562) and The Factor (9, avg $151,333). WinStar's Gemologist (7, avg $190,000); Gainesway's To Honor And Serve (10, avg $144,000); and Coolmore Ashford's Stay Thirsty (5, avg $141,000) and their former inmate, Hansen (8, avg $131,250) have also averaged over $100,000 with five or more sold. Darby Dan's Shackleford has had eight sell, for an average of $95,250.