Twinspires Triple Crown Throwdown: Kentucky Derby


Ed DeRosa of takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap Triple Crown prep races plus the big three races themselves. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets in the preps and $200 Win/Place bets in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Highest bankroll at the end wins.

DeRosa – Bankroll: $5480 – Pegasus ResultSkyscanner made no impact at a big price.

GI Kentucky DerbyTiz the Law is my pick to win the GI Kentucky Derby. He is the most likely winner, and my wagers will go through him attempting to hook up other non favorites with him (i.e., I think other favorites are less likely to win their races than Tiz the Law is to win the Derby). But this is a win-place exercise, and Max Player gives us our best chance to catch Brian, as he might pay more to place than Tiz the Law would to win and place. Clockers have noted the work Steve Asmussen has put into Max Player since joining his barn, and as a colt who's always run his race behind Tiz the Law, he feels more like a should-be third choice than the likely fifth choice. Selection: #2 Max Player (30-1).

Sherack – Bankroll: $4110 – Pegasus Result – Granted, the competition wasn't much, but still nice to see Pneumatic run the kind of race I knew he was capable of.

GI Kentucky Derby – I'm not nearly as confident as I was a month ago prior to Tiz the Law's jaw-dropping win in the GI Runhappy Travers S., but it's still Honor A. P. for me. While the Shared Belief S. was obviously a disappointing result for the stunning dark bay, especially following his breakthrough win in the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, it was never going to be the right kind of spot for him cutting back in distance and facing only three rivals ahead of his main objective on the first Saturday in September. Can he improve off his visually impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby and take the necessary leap forward to take on Tiz the Law at 1 1/4 miles here? I'm betting that he does. Ny Traffic is my longshot for underneath. Selection: #16 Honor A. P. (5-1). 

DiDonato Bankroll: $5500 – Pegasus ResultBig City Bob didn't do anything.

GI Kentucky Derby – Since I've got this huge $20 lead to protect, I'm going to chalk out and go with Tiz the Law. I just don't see a knock on him–especially now that he's proven over 10 panels and in fact ran his best race ever at that distance. Maybe he's a bounce candidate, but he certainly wasn't all out in Saratoga and his recent breezes have been super strong. He's the tactical type who almost always works out a good trip and the post doesn't bother me–good luck if you're trying to beat him. I think Honor A. P. is by far the second most likely winner, but that's not an interesting opinion either. Money Moves and Max Player are the price horses I'll likely include underneath to try to spice things up. Selection: #17 Tiz the Law (3-5).

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