Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: Saturday – Fawree (7th at 6-1 UAE Derby); Kitten's Cat (4th at 5-2 Spiral). Bankroll: $2480.
GIII Sunland Derby – The Sunland Derby is the final 85-point race of the Kentucky Derby Champion Series with 50 points to the winner, and I'm taking a chance on a colt who lost his first five races before putting it together last out for a 4 1/2-length score at Santa Anita: Kimbear. This Temple City colt tried routing on the turf and ran some OK races to start his career. Then he was wide in dirt debut behind Iliad before trying turf sprinting and then finally getting the win going seven furlongs on dirt. My biggest concern isn't the class hike but the jump to 1 1/8 miles, but the 15-1 morning line gives me confidence that we'll be compensated for that gamble. Trainer Eric Kruljac wins with 18% shippers, and jockey Joe Talamo stays aboard. He and Bronze Age are the two most exciting horses in the race because a move forward off their last actually puts them in the Derby picture. My trepidation with Bronze Age as the favorite is I don't love horses who “need” two turns to break their maiden–especially after a couple poor efforts. I'll let him beat me as the favorite. Selection: #7 Kimbear (15-1).
DiDonato: Saturday – Fawree (7th at 6-1 UAE Derby); Parlor (8th at 4-1 Spiral). Bankroll: $1330.
GIII Sunland Derby – They put together an interesting little diverse group for this race–nice to see after it was cancelled last year. Kimbear is just coming off a maiden win in his sixth effort, but it looks like he's finally established that he's best on dirt and has a right to continue his upward trajectory here. Second to San Vicente winner/San Felipe runner-up Iliad sprinting at Los Al in December, he returned to the main track at Santa Anita last month and turned in a dominating effort going seven panels after pressing the pace. The runner-up that day was none other than Sonneteer, Sherack's new favorite horse and the Rebel runner-up. I suppose distance is a bit of a question mark just on form, but his sire was a GSW at 1 1/2 miles and his dam just missed in a Grade III going this distance. Selection: #7 Kimbear (15-1).
Sherack: Saturday – Fawree (7th at 6-1 UAE Derby); Soglio (7th at 6-1 Spiral). Bankroll: $4390.
GIII Sunland Derby – Don't think he'll be anywhere near his morning-line quote of 15-1, but even half that price is fine with me on Kimbear. I'm obviously partial to Sonneteer's form and this guy enters off a very impressive win over the longshot Rebel runner-up in a seven-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita in late February. Kimbear's only other dirt race was pretty solid as well, finishing second behind the talented Iliad three starts back at Los Al. Price should be worth it to see if he can stay the distance. Selection: #7 Kimbear (15-1).
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