Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets-highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.
DeRosa: GIII Lecomte S. – Tackett was ninth after a wide trip. Bankroll: $0.
Smarty Jones S. -This time of a year, many of the key Kentucky Derby points races could feature mostly maiden winners, but that is not the case with a competitive Smarty Jones field where five of the nine entrants are stakes winners. The Smarty Jones will also give us a good beat on the strength of certain regions, with the Springboard Mile exacta from Remington Park going up against several from the Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds, including Gray Attempt. Whether you like him to win or not, Gray Attempt is an important part of any handicapping of this race, as he is outside speed who might benefit from the scratch of Jack Van Berg to his outside. Gray Attempt has blitzed both fields in his last two races since losing his debut to Jack Van Berg, and his Brisnet.com Speed Ratings have him out front in this two-turn, short-stretch mile, but Racing Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has options to keep him company in maiden winner Boldor and New York-bred stakes winner and Springboard runner-up Bankit. I see the added distance as aiding Gray Attempt, as Graydar's progeny average Speed Ratings get better with distance. The outside post is a bigger concern to me than pedigree, but no reason to think that Sugar Bowl doesn't win this. Selection: #8 Gray Attempt (5-2).
Sherack – GIII Lecomte S. – Tight Ten got roughed up at the start and never factored from there. Bankroll: $0.
Smarty Jones S. – After flashing serious speed in his first four career starts sprinting, Bankit has re-invented himself as a deep closer in two attempts at this one-mile distance, crushing fellow New York-breds in the Sleepy Hollow and rallying smartly from far back to finish a strong second to stablemate Long Range Toddy in the Springboard Mile. Bankit should have plenty of pace to close into here with the presence of speedy stretch-out sprinters Gray Attempt and Jack Van Berg (note, JVB is cross-entered in an allowance Saturday) and the bay has appeared to settle in nicely at Asmussen's Oaklawn base, firing a five-furlong bullet in 1:01 (1/30) in the mud Jan. 5. The horse to beat. Selection: #7 Bankit (7-2).
DiDonato – GIII Lecomte S. – It's always nice to get on the board early in this thing… Hog Creek Hustle looked absolutely loaded on the turn, but had to settle for second behind the very impressive War of Will. Bankroll: $500.
Smarty Jones S. – I absolutely love Super Steed in here. His first two efforts–particularly that maiden romp against winners–were excellent. Some will dismiss him off the disappointing fourth at even-money in the Sugar Bowl last time, but he didn't get much pace in there behind re-opposing Gray Attempt (hard to see that one not getting hard pressed up front). Hopefully he can still get enough this time even with Jack Van Berg coming out. The form of the Sugar Bowl has obviously held up, as second and third finishers Manny Wah and Hog Creek Hustle were third and second, respectively, in the Lecomte. On pedigree, Super Steed–by Derby winner Super Saver–should have no trouble stretching out. His dam mostly sprinted, but turned in one of her best career efforts around two turns, and she's an Elusive Quality half to 10-panel Grade I winner Majestic Harbor; and Danza, upset winner of the GI Arkansas Derby over an additional furlong here. Wish I could let my whole bankroll ride on this one. Selection: #3 Super Steed (9-2).
Click for Smarty Jones Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com.
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