Favourable Prognosis At Sapporo

Prognosis training in Hong Kong this past April | HKJC

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Many of the 15 horses signed on for Sunday's G2 Sapporo Kinen were on trial for future events on foreign soil, and while the lion's share of those toiled in the tricky underfoot conditions, Shadai Race Horse's Prognosis (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) was the one standing tallest at the finish as he galloped home a decisive winner.

Winner of the G2 Kinko Sho over the 2000 metres in March, Prognosis accepted an invitation to Hong Kong for the G1 FWD QE II Cup the following month, and, with record-setting Zac Purton at the controls, ran on from the back to finish two lengths adrift of the G1 Cox Plate-bound Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}).

Void of early speed, Prognosis managed to get all the way down onto the fence after leaving from gate 13 and raced last but one around the first turn as Unicorn Lion (Ire) (No Nay Never) crossed over from the 15 hole to head them off, as expected. Sensing a moderate pace over a course that had taken plenty of rain, Yuga Kawada asked Prognosis for a middle move at the halfway stage, and the team rallied one off the inside to race just ahead of midfield and just to the outside of the 3-year-old Top Knife (Jpn) (Declaration of War) nearing the third corner. Unicorn Lion hoisted the white flag 600 metres out, and Top Knife took advantage, but Kawada had Prognosis poised four wide at the head of the straight and opened up on them late. Fellow Shadai runner So Valiant (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) outfinished G1 Dubai Turf runner-up Danon Beluga (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}) for third. The winner would be a likely runner in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) Oct. 29 and a return trip to Hong Kong for the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup is a distinct possibility.

Shahryar (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) was using the Sapporo Kinen as a possible steppingstone to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, but struggled home 11th and was later found to have displaced. He will undergo a corrective procedure and his Breeders' Cup status is in doubt. Win Mighty (Jpn) (Gold Ship {Jpn}) holds Cups entries in Australia, but beat just two home Sunday.

Pedigree Notes:

Shadai acquired Velda subsequent to her daughter Vorda's runner-up effort in the 2013 Prix Morny and victory in that year's G1 Cheveley Park S. Prognosis is the fourth Shadai-bred produce for Velda, and she is also represented by a 2-year-old colt by Orfevre (Jpn), her final live foal, as she sadly passed away in April 2022.

Sunday, Sapporo, Japan
SAPPORO KINEN-G2, ¥135,500,000, Sapporo, 8-20, 3yo/up, 2000mT, 2:01.50, gd.
1–PROGNOSIS (JPN), 128, h, 5, by Deep Impact (Jpn)
1st Dam: Velda (GB), by Observatory
2nd Dam: Viavigoni (GB), by Mark of Esteem (Ire)
3rd Dam: Val d'Erica (Ire), by Ashmore (Fr)
O-Shadai Race Horse; B-Shadai Farm; T-Mitsumasa Nakauchida; J-Yuga Kawada; ¥71,050,000. Lifetime Record: G1SP-HK, 10-6-2-1, $2,295,015. *1/2 to Vorda (Fr) (Orpen), Hwt. 2yo Filly-Fr, G1SW-Eng, GSW & G1SP-Fr,  Werk Nick Rating: C. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com pedigree.
2–Top Knife (Jpn), 121, c, 3, Declaration of War–Be Wind (Jpn), by Spinning World. (¥24,200,000 Ylg '21 HOKSUM). O-Koji Yasuhara; B-Kineusu Farm; ¥28,300,000.
3–So Valiant (Jpn), 128, h, 5, Orfevre (Jpn)–So Magic (Jpn), by Symboli Kris S. O-Shadai Race Horse; B-Shadai Farm; ¥18,150,000.
Margins: 4, 3, 3/4. Odds: 4.10, 48.60, 6.90.
Click for the JRA Chart.

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