European Value Sires: the Newcomers

Your holiday shopping is complete for another year–now, how about a little treat for yourself? Can I suggest a booking to one of the best horses in the world of 2018 for £7,000–or, one of the best horses of the past decade for £25,000?

This column begins TDN Europe's annual value sires series, where we sift through stallions by sire crop and pull out a few dark horses that could provide a return on investment. We'll start this week with stallions retiring to stud in 2019 and progress through horses with first foals and yearlings, all the way through to the ones punching above their weight on the racecourse.

Before we dive in, it's worth reflecting on what constitutes value. In the business of breeding racehorses, value can mean two very different things, perhaps now more than ever. For the owner-breeder, it is finding that sire that first and foremost consistently turns out winners and horses that earn their keep. For the commercial breeder, it's about hitting a home run in the sales ring, whether that be with a fashionably bred yearling or by having tapped in early to the latest buzz horse at the foal sales.

For the purposes of this installment, we'll look at the new sires of 2019 on the merits of what they could be expected to produce on the racecourse. We'll single out stallions that could perform better than their opening fees suggest. At the end we'll present a value sires podium with gold, silver and bronze recipients.

The incoming sire crop of 2019 is headed by a quintet of colts that were each standout runners in their own right. At the top of the table is Tweenhills Farm & Stud's Roaring Lion (Kitten's Joy), the four-time Group 1 winner from a mile to 10.5 furlongs that is priced at £40,000. Roaring Lion won his first three starts at two before missing by a neck to Saxon Warrior (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in the G1 Racing Post Trophy. It took him a few starts to find his feet again at three, but then a 4 1/2 length score in the G2 Dante S. and a third in the G1 Epsom Derby were followed by commanding performances in the G1 Coral-Eclipse, G1 Juddmonte International and G1 Irish Champion S. before he dropped back to a mile to seal his championship credentials in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II S.

Roaring Lion looks an excellent chance to fulfill the dreams of Ken Ramsey by establishing a significant presence for his sire Kitten's Joy in Europe. The grey is out of Vionnet, a daughter of American 2-year-old champion and Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense who was placed in the GI Rodeo Drive S. on the dirt, but she is a half-sister to a pair of fillies that won the GII John C. Mabee S. going a mile on the turf. Roaring Lion is one of three sons of Kitten's Joy to retire in Europe this year, along with Darley's dual Group 1 winner Hawkbill, who displayed brilliance on more than one occasion and is priced at £7,500 at Dalham Hall; and five-time group winner Taareef, who joins the French ranks at Haras du Mezeray at €6,000.

Next highest-priced in Britain at £25,000 are Darley's Cracksman (GB) (Frankel {GB}), and Roaring Lion's Tweenhills studmate Zoustar (Aus) (Northern Meteor {Aus}).

Cracksman made rapid-fire progress during the second half of his 3-year-old season last year, recording open-length victories in the G2 Great Voltigeur S. and G2 Prix Niel before dismissing Poet's Word (GB) (Poet's Voice {GB}) by seven lengths in the G1 Champion S. to earn a Racing Post Rating of 131–the highest of any member of this sire crop. Despite starting off the year with a pair of Group 1 wins, there were fears that Cracksman had mentally gone off course after he scraped home from a 33-1 novice race winner in the G1 Coronation S., and allowed Poet's Word to tame him after being hustled by Frankie Dettori throughout the 1 1/4-mile Prince of Wales's S. Kept hidden by John Gosden for the summer, Cracksman returned with blinkers on in the latest edition of the Champion S. at Ascot in October. Those who backed him into short-priced favouritism likely suffered a few heart palpitations as Frankie once again niggled at him throughout the race, but when put to the true test at the two pole Cracksman responded to absolutely annihilate his rivals. His RPR of 131 matched last year's, and his official rating rose to 130, making him equal world's best with Winx (Aus) (Street Cry {Ire}). Just three European colts have been rated higher than Cracksman in the last 10 years: his sire Frankel (140), Sea The Stars (136) and Harbinger (135). We know about the accomplishments of Frankel, but Cracksman's female family is also riddled with class: his stakes-winning dam Rhadegunda (GB) is by the great broodmare sire Pivotal (GB); his second dam St Radegund (GB) is a daughter of Green Desert and his third dam is the G1 1000 Guineas and G1 Sussex S. winner On The House (Be My Guest). On all accounts, Cracksman looks like a whole lot of quality wrapped up in a £25,000 package.

Zoustar is, of course, unique among this group in that he already has a stud record to pull clues from, having been overwhelmingly the leading first-crop sire in Australia during the season that ended in July. It was not only the volume of winners and stakes winners that Zoustar was turning out, but the quality, and he continues to dominate this season, once again leading his old rival Spirit of Boom (Aus) on the second-season sires' table, but it's hardly a competition: he is almost A$2-million clear by earnings. His three first-crop stakes winners have all trained on, and in fact in November they filled the trifecta in the G1 Coolmore Stud S., the Southern Hemisphere's most important 3-year-old sprint and a race won by Zoustar himself. And, he has added four new stakes winners this term.

Zoustar is doing things that are unheard of Down Under, but how will that translate to Europe? Well, let's look at the pedigrees of his seven stakes winners. Two of them, including his Group 1 winner Sunlight (Aus), have second dams by Danehill. A third is out of a daughter of Fastnet Rock (Aus), with a second dam by Distorted Humor, and a fourth is out of a daughter of Anabaa with Acatenango (Ger) as the sire of his second dam. His latest stakes winner, the Dec. 29 Group 3-winning 2-year-old Sun City (Aus), is out of a mare by Flying Spur (Aus), a son of Danehill. Plenty to resonate with European breeders there. Zoustar's sire Northern Meteor–who made a similarly impressive start at stud before a premature death–is a son of Encosta de Lago (Aus), who is by Sadler's Wells's full-brother Fairy King. Zoustar is himself out of a Redoute's Choice (Aus) mare, from that Shantha's Choice family that is regarded as one of the best in the world, and Fappiano even appears in his third generation: there is truly something for everyone in this pedigree.

Coolmore debuts two in the top echelon at its Irish headquarters in 2019: Saxon Warrior (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) at €30,000 and US Navy Flag (War Front) at €25,000. Both horses represent international sire lines that Coolmore has exploited as an option for its growing plethora of high-class Galileo mares, and indeed both horses are out of Group 1-winning daughters of the champion sire: Saxon Warrior a son of the G1 Moyglare Stud S. winner Maybe (Ire), and US Navy Flag out of the four-time Group 1 and Classic winner Misty For Me (Ire). The formula certainly worked on the racecourse: both horses were Group 1 winners at two and three, Saxon Warrior a Classic winner and US Navy Flag pillaging the sprinting ranks. While they won't provide a total Galileo outcross, Enable (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}) has once again been the poster child this year for close inbreeding to Sadler's Wells.

One who could be a valuable outcross to Galileo is Sioux Nation, the Group 1-winning son of Scat Daddy that Coolmore introduces at €12,500. Sioux Nation won the G2 Norfolk S. at Royal Ascot before following up at Group 1 level in the Phoenix S. Sound familiar? That is the same pattern followed by No Nay Never, who won the Prix Morny. Sioux Nation didn't quite build on that brilliance this year at three but he didn't disappoint, either: he won the G3 Lacken S. and was beaten just three-quarters of a length by fellow newcomer Havana Grey (GB) (Havana Gold {Ire}) when third in the G1 Flying Five S. No Nay Never, who started at €20,000, was slightly superior on ratings, but not markedly so, and with so many similarities to draw on it could be very worth taking a gamble at the price.

The aforementioned Havana Grey won the G3 Molecomb S. and two listed races at two, and built on that promise this year at three when winning the Flying Five and the G2 Sapphire S. He starts out at Whitsbury Manor Stud-the same farm that brought us the rags to riches Showcasing-for £8,000.

A trio of colts enter stud next year at £20,000/€20,000: GI Breeders' Cup Mile winner Expert Eye (GB) (Acclamation {GB}), sprint champion Harry Angel (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) and dual hemisphere Group 1 winner Merchant Navy (Aus) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}). Expert Eye looks to just about have it all on pedigree: by sire of sires Acclamation out of a Dansili mare who is out of a Classic-producing half-sister to those top American mares Sightseek and Tate's Creek-a stout Juddmonte family through-and-through. Expert Eye flashed brilliance early in his career and while he went a bit wayward at the start of his 3-year-old campaign, he could hardly have been more impressive when winning the G3 Jersey S. at Royal Ascot by 4 3/4 lengths and the Breeders' Cup Mile over a wet track he wouldn't have loved.

Remember that sire-making Coolmore Stud S. won by Zoustar? Well, it turns out he's not the only winner of that six-furlong sprint starting out in Europe this year–so is Merchant Navy, who put the icing on the cake with a win in the G1 Diamond Jubilee S. in July. It's a small bloodstock world, indeed. Harry Angel was plagued by a supposed Ascot curse, but he had no problem winning anywhere else, taking the G1 July Cup and G1 Sprint Cup of 2017 to be named champion sprinter. His two best RPRs of 128, posted at three and four, are well clear of anything recorded by Merchant Navy or Expert Eye–or, in fact, Roaring Lion, Saxon Warrior and US Navy Flag. Also a Group 2 winner at two, he was consistently brilliant throughout his racing career.

Dropping into the four-figure fees, we can really start to uncover some horses that might fly under the radar. The steal of the year has to be Poet's Word (GB) (Poet's Voice {GB}) at £7,000. Sure, he didn't win a stakes race until he was four, but he was second in the G1 Champion and Irish Champion S. at the tail end of 2017 before this year winning the Prince of Wales's S.–beating Cracksman–and the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S., both times earning RPRs of 128. He is rated equal to Roaring Lion at 127 and joint third on the world rankings. A 300,000gns yearling before the boom of his late sire at stud, Poet's Word's page is steeped in class: stakes winners under his Nashwan first dam include the G2 Railway S. winner Beckford (GB), and his Shirley Heights second dam is a half-sister to Inchinor. Other stakes winners under the third dam include Miss Keller (Ire), Harbour Law (GB) and Venus de Milo (Ire).

Showcasing's fee may have jumped to £55,000 for 2019, but breeders can access his son Tasleet (GB) alongside Poet's Word at Shadwell for £6,000. Tasleet is speed on speed, being out of a Cadeaux Genereux mare from the family of Battash (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) and he was a stakes winner at two, three and four, the highlight coming in last year's G2 Duke of York Clipper Logistics S. He was second in the G1 Sprint Cup and the G1 Qipco British Champions Sprint S.

How about Lancaster Bomber (War Front) at €8,500? The horse just didn't seem to know how to run a bad race, and often when playing pacemaker for Churchill (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). In that role he picked up seconds in the G1 Dewhurst S. and G1 St James's Palace S., and he was also placed in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, GI Woodbine Mile, GI Breeders' Cup Mile and G1 Lockinge S. before at last getting his day in the sun in this year's G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. He is a half-brother to the very talented Excelebration (Ire) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}).

When it comes to battlers, how about Jungle Cat (Ire) (Iffraaj {GB}) at €8,000 at Darley's Kildangan Stud? His Group 1 sprint victories in Dubai and Australia this year will be foremost in the mind, but let's not forget that he broke his maiden in June of his 2-year-old year before placing behind The Wow Signal (Ire), Ivawood (GB), and Muhaarar (GB) in juvenile group races. Of the same ilk is Tweenhills's Lightning Spear (GB), the apparently gorgeous son of Pivotal (GB) who won this year's G1 Sussex S. and three times posted RPRs of 122. He made just a pair of starts in his first two seasons but once he got a chance to really get going at four he was a factor in many of Europe's key races over the next three seasons before at last getting his Group 1 in August.

Exceed and Excel was this year represented by sire sons like Helmet (Aus), sire of G1 Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow (Ire), and successful first-season sire Bungle Inthejungle (Ire), and the Darley shuttler's newest representative is Rathbarry Stud's James Garfield (Ire) at €7,000. The G2 Mill Reef S. winner recorded his best RPR (119) when beaten a half-length by Polydream in this year's G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, and he comes from the sire-producing family of Invincible Spirit (Ire) and Kodiac (GB). That is the same family as Coolmore's G2 Superlative S. winner Gustav Klimt (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), who starts out this year at €7,500. Gustav Klimt couldn't quite put it together for that elusive Group 1, but he stayed remarkably consistent while trying during a busy campaign this year, placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James's Palace, Prix Jean Prat and Sprint Cup. Cheveley Park Stud debuts the best son of former champion first-season sire Society Rock (Ire), Unfortunately (Ire), at £7,500. He is the only Group 1-winning 2-year-old to enter stud in Britain this year.

With something like 30 new sires taking up residence in France next year, breeders there certainly won't be lacking for choice. There is definitely some quality in addition to quantity, too, namely with the likes of Recoletos (Fr) (Whipper) and Cloth of Stars (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire})–interestingly, both have the great mare Miesque in their third generation.

At €8,000 at Haras du Quesnay, Recoletos is the most expensive stallion to retire to France in 2019, and his CV includes Group 1 wins in this year's Prix d'Ispahan and Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, which bookended a second to Alpha Centauri (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois. Recoletos's third dam produced Crimson Tide and is a half-sister to Derby winner Shahrastani. Reports from those who went to Quesnay to inspect him during Arqana's December Sale were that he is gorgeous, too.

It could be argued that if not for those super fillies Enable and Sea of Class (Ire) (Sea the Stars {Ire}), Cloth Of Stars would be a dual Arc winner and thus not standing for €7,500 at Haras du Logis. Sure, you remove two horses and the complexion of the race changes, but nonetheless Cloth Of Stars was the first colt home when second and third in the last two Arcs. He was a group winner from two to four, his biggest moment in the sun coming in last year's G1 Prix Ganay. His top RPRs of 126 and 123 put him among the best of this sire crop. Cloth Of Stars comes from the very productive Niarchos family of Group 1 winners Shiva (Jpn), Light Shift, Ulysses (Ire), Main Sequence and Northern Trick.

Recoletos and Cloth Of Stars aren't the only newcomers offering value in Normandy. Take a closer look at Group 1 winner Dschingis Secret (Ger) (Soldier Hollow {GB}) at €4,000 at Haras de Saint Arnoult: a half-length third in the G1 Deutsches Derby, the following year he won the G2 Grosser Hansa-Preis, G1 Preis von Berlin and G2 Prix Foy, beating respectively Iquitos (Ger), Hawkbill and Cloth Of Stars. He added another Group 2 in July and was consistent throughout his two best seasons, recording RPRs of 120, 119 (twice) and 118 (twice).

Returning to Britain, a pair of colts are likely to draw plenty of support at £5,000: Rajasinghe (Ire) (Choisir {Aus}) at the National Stud and Massaat (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) at Mickley Stud.

Rajasinghe is by Choisir, whose sire sons include the proven Starspangledbanner and Olympic Glory, who made a very promising start this season. Rajasinghe won the G2 Coventry S. at Royal Ascot, posting the fastest six-furlong time ever at that course for a 2-year-old, and in his wake were G1 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Romanised (Ire) and US Navy Flag.

Massaat comes from a family choc-full of black-type: he is a half-brother to the G1 Commonwealth Cup winner Eqtidaar (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), and a plethora of stakes winners under the second dam include G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches winner Precieuse (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}). He was second to Air Force Blue in the G1 Dewhurst and Galileo Gold (Ire) in the G1 2000 Guineas and, after winning the G2 Hungerford S. over subsequent Group 1 winner Librisa Breeze (GB), rounded out his career end of last year with placings behind Ribchester (Ire) and Limato (Ire).

Value Sires Podium

GOLD – Cracksman (£25,000) – one of the best racehorses of the last decade

SILVER – Sioux Nation (€12,500) – in the mould of No Nay Never

BRONZE – Poet's Word (£7,000) – one of the best racehorses of 2018