Breeding Stock Sales: By the Numbers

standout Tattersalls December mare Marsha | Tattersalls

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Breeding stock sale returns may not offer the same clear insight into the health of the bloodstock market the way that yearling auctions do. Trade in broodmares tends to be asset liquidations or asset acquisitions, the start of something new or indeed the end of something old. And as great broodmares underpin most bloodstock endeavours whether you are a commercial or private breeder, the clamour to invest in a potential 'blue hen' can send the markets into the stratosphere. But that's only at the top end of the market.

In the five years to 2018, the prices for mares have fluctuated from year to year and are subject to some distortion when major dispersals take place, but grouping the five years together can give us a useful insight to the market dynamics in Europe and in America. There is no clearer picture to be had than looking at a sample of 6,000 or so mares sold in each region over the period. I have limited Europe to the three main sales–Tattersalls December, Goffs November and Arqana December–and the U.S. sales to Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton November sales.

On the face of it, both look almost identical in their price distribution. Breaking each market into 10% segments shows that the top decile in each region is subject to the same market dynamics. Both produce an average of nearly six times the overall average for the group as wealthy investors vie for the choicest lots. And the pressure gets even higher at the very top of the market where the top 5% (310 lots) average 9.3 times the general average in Europe and 10.8 times in America.

Whereas the average price for the best prospects in Europe are comparatively more highly valued against the market in general, compared to North America, inevitably it is the American market that has produced more high-priced fillies and mares. In the five years the average price of the top 10% of the American market has averaged $594,000 compared to the $483,000 in Europe.

Moreover, the middle market in the U.S. has typically outperformed Europe by about 50%. And there were also many more dollar millionaires in America: 108 compared to 55 in Europe. Our chart also shows a greater depth to the American market, with the top 30% of the market maintaining an average greater or equal to the overall average, something which the European market struggled to do. In real terms, the U.S. market has posted stronger numbers in every decile except the bottom three.

In the five years to 2018, 31 Group 1 winners have been sold in Europe bringing an average of $1.32 million, headed by the 6 million guineas for top-class sprinter Marsha (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}). Again it's a significant drop in price for Group 2 and Group 3 winners: 186 of them averaged $337,000 in the five years, while 328 listed winners changed hands for an average of $174,000. Restricting it to breeding prospects (i.e. fillies just off the track), Group 1 winners would have set you back $3.45 million on average, compared to $542,000 for Group 2 and Group 3 scorers. Listed-winning fillies meanwhile averaged $405,000.

In America, Grade I winners–there have been 108 of them since 2014–sold for an average of $1.3 million and they featured Tepin (Bernstein) at $8 million, Lady Aurelia (Scat Daddy) at $7.5 million and Stellar Wind (Curlin) who brought $6 million. Grade II and Grade III winners did better in America than in Europe with an average price of $461,000, compared to Europe's $337,000. Listed and stakes winners in America in the period have sold for $133,000. Once again, fillies just off the track brought premium prices in the U.S., with Grade I winners making $2.53 million, other group or graded winners $774,000 and listed and stakes winners $298,000.

 

 

 

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