Bill Oppenheim: Strength In Numbers

Much as we'd like them to, they can't all be superstars. If they can't be stars, or at least A Runners ($134,280 or more in North America in 2015), it's still better if they are useful horses–B Runners or C Runners. A Runners are 2% of starters, whereas B Runners (next 2%) and C Runners (the 4% after that) total three times as many racehorses as A Runners. So horses which earned $63,420 – $93,609 were C Runners in North America last year, and those which earned $93,610 – $134,279 were B Runners; at least they're covering their training costs.

The two North American or European sires with the most year-starters in the seven years 2009-2015 were Coolmore sires Giant's Causeway (2,143 year-starters) and Galileo (1,945 year-starters); remember, a horse is counted as a year-starter each year it starts, up to seven; and can be an A, B, or C Runner every year, if it earns enough. Galileo (159) and Giant's Causeway (106) are the two top NA/EU sires of A Runners 2009-2015, and they are also the leading sires of B Runners and C Runners, though in reverse order: Giant's Causeway tops both lists, with 92 B Runners over Galileo's 86, and with 132 C Runners, compared to 124 for Galileo. When we add them all up, though, Galileo is so far ahead by number of A Runners that he maintains his lead, with 369 ABC Runners (that's A Runners + B Runners + C Runners over the seven-year period), compared to 330 for Giant's Causeway. That's nearly 19% ABC Runners/year-starters for Galileo (2.37 ABC Index, or 2.37 times the population average of 8.00%), and 15.4% ABC Runners/year-starters for Giant's Causeway (1.92 ABC Index). The percentage of losers is still daunting, but at least you can say, about these two sires, they do sire plenty of horses which pay their way once they've been acquired.

Numbers do help, and there's no sire among the top 40 NA/EU sires of B Runners (35+) which had fewer than 800 year-starters in 2009-2015. WinStar's venerable Distorted Humor went toe-to-toe with Giant's Causeway for a few years in topping the tables for numbers of B and C Runners, and even though he doesn't sire quite the number he used to, he's still the third-leading sire by number of B Runners (73), and fourth by number of C Runners (121). Gainesway's runaway two-time champion sire, Tapit, who has 98 A Runners, is fourth by number of B Runners, with 69, followed by Lane's End's Candy Ride (68), England's Banstead Manor (Juddmonte) Stud's Oasis Dream (59), and Distorted Humor's barn-mate at WinStar, Speightstown (58). The sire of 96 A Runners 2009-2015, Speightstown in also third by number of C Runners (122). Speightstown (276) is also third behind Galileo and Giant's Causeway by number of 2009-2015 ABC Runners, just ahead of Tapit (273) in that category.

When we look at sires of B and C Runners from the point of view of the respective indexes, naturally the picture changes, and more sires with fewer runners appear on that list. In fact, it's a little surprising that, of the top 40 NA/EU sires by B Runner Index, as many as 17 of them had 800+ year-starters 2009-2015. The leading NA/EU sire with 80+ year-starters 2009-2015 by both B Runner Index and C Runner Index is the Canadian sire Niigon, a son of Unbridled who died almost even before he had runners. The long-running Ontario program, compromised as its finances may have been over the past few years, still generates good purse money over a long, mostly all-weather season, and Niigon was doing very well on it, leading the B runner Index list with a 3.41 Index, and leading the C Runner Index, with a 2.33 Index (the scale is lower for C Runners because 1.00 = 2.00% for B runners, but 1.00 = 4.00% for C Runners, so the multiples for the B Runner Index are higher.

Not that we do much of this just for fun, but one of the actual fun things about studying APEX ratings is you do invariably come up with pretty obscure sires which can nonetheless boast significant achievements. One such is Pennsylvania's Wynoaks Farm's Weigelia, who has the second-highest B Runner Index (3.18), after only Niigon. Weigelia himself was a son of Safely's Mark (Danzig-Safely Kept). Safely's Mark never won a black-type race, but Weigelia won eight, among his 13 wins from 48 starts, and earned a total of $1,007,708; and he's making a little 'mark' as a sire himself.

The California phenomenon that is Square Eddie (3.54 A index) is number three by B Runner Index (2.65), ahead of the veteran top California sire, Unusual Heat (2.52), himself just ahead of Hill 'n' Dale's up-and-coming six-figure sire, Curlin (2.51). Then there's another obscure son of Unbridled who stands in Ontario, Saffir (2.45), followed by Spendthrift's freaky (4.07 A Index) Into Mischief (2.39 B Index); France's equally freaky Kendargent (Haras de Colleville, 2.38 B Index); and, once again, Lane's End's prolific source of class, Candy Ride (2.36). After Niigon on the C index table are: Germany's top sire, Soldier Hollow (Gestut Auenquelle, 2.16 C Index); Speightstown once again (2.10); Lane's End Texas's son of Rubiano, Too Much Bling (2.08); Lane's End Kentucky's Quality Road (1.99); and Adena Springs' Ghostzapper (1.98), whose 2.40 ABC Index is actually tops among all living NA/EU sires. Galileo and Speightstown (each 2.37 ABC Index) actually dead-heat for second on that list. Click here for a breakdown of the 620 NA-EU sires with 80+ year-starters.

DEEP IMPACT, KING K. DOMINATE IN JAPAN

There is very little shipping in and out of Japan, so we rate it more as a prototype stand-alone country rather than mixing their sires in with North American and European sires for rating purposes. Deep Impact and King Kamehameha run one-two in all four major categories, but we really don't have any way of knowing how they would compare if their progeny were running full time against those of NA/EU sires.

Given that caveat, the dominance of these two Shadai stallions is very convincing. Deep Impact (first foals 2008) had 1,886 year-starters; King Kamehameha, whose first foals were born in 2006 (the same year as America's 'Fearsome Foursome' of Tapit, Medaglia d'Oro, Speightstown, and Candy Ride) has had an amazing 3,044 year-starters since 2009–well over 400 a year! Deep Impact has a blockbuster 4.77 A Runner Index, and a 3.25 ABC Runner Index, while King Kamehameha runs second in both categories with a 3.02 A Runner Index and a 2.23 ABC Index. War Emblem, whose fertility problems finally got the better of him, ranks third in both categories (2.84/2.17), but is now back in Kentucky at Old Friends.

Unusually, a couple of younger sires show up on these two leaders lists. I don't know much about Admire Aura, except that he's a son of Agnes Tachyon (by Sunday Silence) and is the sire of three 3-year-old A Runners in his first crop, including the GSW dirt horse, Cross Krieger. Also making the top 15 by A Runner Index is Screen Hero, sire of two Group 1 winners in his first crop, 4-year-olds of 2015, including the triple Group 1-winning miler, Maurice. Another horse with his first 3-year-olds in 2015 who looks like he could be a good sire there is the wide-margin 2010 G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. winner Harbinger, by Dansili; he had 22 ABC Runners in 2015, and the index figures for Japanese sires typically improve a lot when their first 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds start to run, as the prize money in Japan is so heavily weighted toward older horses.

King Kamehameha leads Deep Impact in the two categories which tally number of A Runners and ABC Runners. King K. has 184 A Runners to Deep Impact's 180; Manhattan Cafe is a distant third, with 100; and King Kamehameha has an almost unfathomable 544 ABC Runners, to an equally impressive 490 for Deep Impact. Symboli Kris S. (318), Kurofune (313), and Manhattan Cafe (285) fill the next three places, though at a respectful distance from the top two. Click here for the complete breakdown of Japan's 108 Apex sires.