Big Weekend Ahead for TVG's Weaver

Dave Weaver (center)

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TVG racing analyst Dave Weaver has a busy Saturday ahead of him. In between playing for the $800,000 first prize at the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas, the 42-year-old will make a quick jaunt to Miami to watch a horse he co-owns, War Story (Northern Afleet), compete in the $12 million Pegasus World Cup.

“I qualified [for the NHC] back in May, when I obviously had no idea that this horse would be in a race like the Pegasus,” said Weaver. “I had the choice of doing one or the other, or doing both.”

Weaver chose both. So he'll put his entries in first thing Saturday morning in Vegas, fly to Miami for the Pegasus, then red-eye back to Vegas on Sunday.

“Hopefully, I'll be able to make the final table when I get back,” said Weaver.

Weaver bought into the 5-year-old War Story just before last November's GI Breeders' Cup Classic, where he ran up the track at 104-1.

“My friends have owned that horse since his second start, and I've always followed and rooted for him,” said Weaver. “Prior to the Breeders' Cup, they invited me to come aboard for the ride, and offered me a real small percentage of the horse.”

The ownership group includes Ron Paolucci, Glenn Ellis, and Imaginary Stables. War Story has some backclass to draw on. He hit the board in each of the three Derby preps in Louisiana at three–the GIII Lecomte S., GII Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana

Derby–before running 16th in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. A lifetime earner of $559,395, he has come on smartly since the Breeders' Cup. He ran a good fourth in the GI Cigar Mile, then romped by 7 3/4 lengths in the $125,000 Queens County S. at Aqueduct Dec. 17.

“He's had some success lately,” said Weaver. “He finished fourth in the GI Cigar Mile, then won a nice stakes last time out and earned his best number ever. So, he's heading in the right direction.”

War Story earned a 105 BRIS figure in the Queen's County. He'll be making his first start for the Jorge Navarro barn in the Pegasus, his seventh trainer since October of 2015. He made his last three starts for trainer Mario Serey Jr.

Weaver is aware that taking on Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) and California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) is a mammoth-sized order, but expects a good effort from War Story.

“He's been a bad gate horse throughout his career,” he explained. “In the Breeders' Cup, he got left and then was rank. In the Pacific Classic, he got left and was rank. You can't do that against California Chrome. But in his last two races, [jockey Antonio] Gallardo was able to get him out of the gate well. If he breaks clean, and we think he will, he shouldn't be that far back, and we think he's going to run well.”

Weaver is making his first appearance at NHC, and is a relative novice to the tournament scene. “But my home track, Los Alamitos, had a few tournaments last year, and so I entered one and qualified.”

Anyone who's watched Weaver man the desk at TVG knows his affinity for the “ice-cold exacta,” and, true to his Twitter handle (@icecoldexacta), he punch his ticket to the NHC with that wager.

“There was a $200 bankroll for the tournament, which was live money, and in the very first race on the card I put down a $190 straight exacta,” said Weaver from the Treasure Island sports book, where he was resplendently dressed in custom-made Ice Cold Exacta gear. “It hit and paid like $6.30 for a buck, so I was able to open up a big lead and then coasted in.”

Weaver said he's enjoying himself at the NHC so far. “It's been great,” he said. “It's a good group of people here. I know a lot of people through social media, and have been able to a lot of them here in person.”

Still, he can't wait to get to Gulfstream Park for the Pegasus. “I just want to be there and experience that atmosphere,” he said. “Gulfstream can't hold that many people, so you know it's going to be real party atmosphere.”

Should War Story run well Saturday, Weaver hopes to bring some of that party back to Vegas.

How the Tournament Works…

TDN contributor Steve DeCaspers did a terrific job reporting from the NHC the last two years, but if you've forgotten, here's a refresher on how the NHC works.

Throughout the year, dozens of NHC-affiliated tournaments are held across the country, the winners of which earn a seat to the NHC. In 2016, there were roughly 160 of these feeder tournaments that comprise the NHC Tour. The racetracks, off-track parlors and ADW sites that hold these contests are free to choose the format in which their respective contests are held. Some use mythical win and place bets. Others are live-money tournaments, whereby you put up a certain amount and bet from that pool, and whoever has the most cash at the end of the day wins. To get to the NHC, you must qualify. You can't just buy your way in. So these are truly the best horseplayers in the country fighting it out.

The NHC format was tweaked a few years ago and is now held over three days, from Friday through Sunday. The first two days are open, as players vie for the 66 available slots for Sunday morning's semi-final round. There are 18 contest races on both Friday and Saturday, so 36 combined. Eight of the races each day are mandatory, while the other 10 are optional, which gives players some latitude to play the types of races they're best at. (And while the races are optional, the NHC determines the eligible tracks, typically four or five major tracks.)

As mentioned, the top 66 earners move to the semi-final on Sunday, where they wager on 10 races from 9 a.m. to roughly 12:30 p.m. (local time). Importantly, all 10 are optional races. Also important to note is that players carry their earnings forward, so Sunday's semi-final builds on Friday and Saturday.

From there, 10 of best handicappers in North America earn their way to the Final Table, located on the stage of the main ballroom at Treasure Island. There are seven mandatory races–no optional races at all.

And that's it. The winner after the final takes home the $800,000 first prize. Second gets $250,000, third gets $125,000. Not insignificantly, the tournament pays down to 66, which is awarded $5,000. (There is also a consolation tournament on Sunday that pays $10,000 to the winner.)

In all, there is $2.44 million in available prize money at NHC.

Nufrio Lead Early at NHC…

With two mandatory races to go at Friday's opener of the NHC, retired fireman Pat Nufrio was atop the leaderboard with a bankroll of $159.50. A resident of Belleville, New Jersey, just outside of Newark, Nufrio cashed on 10 of his 16 plays. It was a steady stream of singles and doubles for Nufrio, whose biggest hit came in the 6th at Gulfstream when the 8-1 Zitman (Big Brown) rallied to win a $25,000 maiden claimer on the turf.

“There really haven't been that many big prices today,” said Nufrio. “I didn't think there would be too many bombs, so I had the strategy that middle-line horses were going to be good. So far, I've caught the trips and won the photos, and I got lucky.”

It's the second NHC appearance for Nufrio. He came in 2012 with his brother, but finished out of the money.

“When I came in 2012, I had the greatest time I've ever had in Vegas, and I've been coming here for years. I had a ball. I play in about 10 tournaments a year hoping to qualify, and I finished third in a tournament at the Meadowlands last year, so here I am.”

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