A Wipeout With Hidden Gains

Arcadia, CA–We have been here before, of course. One European raider after another either missing the break, or getting caught wide, or trapped by weakening rivals, before reaching out desperately for the laurels in the stretch–and instead grasping the thorns of “what-might-have-been.” And in playing a hand by then stripped of all nuance, all strategy, the removal of those thorns will always be bitter.

You might very well ask, if we have been here before, why anyone would bother to keep coming back. But that would be to underestimate so many factors.

Many an addiction, after all, is nourished precisely by the cruelty of the craving; by a suspicion that the elixir can never taste quite as good as it smells. Crapshoot reverses of the kind the Europeans experience here are so bittersweet that they know themselves condemned, inexorably, to return someday. Especially here at Santa Anita, where so many specific moments and deeds have been absorbed into that timeless backdrop to create a heady sense of living history.

Others take a less maniacal view, but the upshot is the same. They persevere on the premise that vindication will be rendered all the sweeter by the stoical accumulation of reverses past. Above all on 'Future Stars Friday', however, a third way opens between these dispassionate extremes.

That middle ground, pragmatic and professional, is where you will reliably discover the Englishman who came closest to success for Europe yesterday. Roger Varian only acceded so seamlessly to the legacy of Michael Jarvis in the first place because he was also able to borrow something of the seasoned, temperate perspective his mentor had earned through long experience. Even in the immediate moments after Daahyeh (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}) had not quite managed to run down Sharing (Speightstown) in the GI Juvenile Fillies' Turf, Varian was coolly observing that she should not be described as unlucky.

“The winner had first run but we got out in time,” he said, gesturing at a replay on the big screen.

But if there were one or two others who could legitimately be counted unfortunate, notably Arizona (Ire) (No Nay Never) in the GI Juvenile Turf, then these too will share with Daahyeh the latent benefit of their experience here yesterday. And 'experience' is the mot juste, because as young horses they can all bring home dividends that potentially exceed even those that might have been gained with better luck on the day.

Granted the 'Ryder Cup' team spirit that unites the Europeans at the Breeders' Cup, even in this era of dismal political fragmentation, it feels apt to borrow a French expression. “Reculer pour mieux sauter.” A step back gives you the run-up to make a better jump forward.

The performance of Masar (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}) in the equivalent race, at Del Mar two years ago, sprang irresistibly to mind when Arizona, having compounded a wide draw with a drowsy start, began sweeping through in the stretch. At the line, he was beaten just under two lengths into fifth; Masar, similarly never nearer, had been beaten just under three lengths into sixth.

Aidan O'Brien saddled the winner that year in Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy), who got everything right on the day in a fashion that anticipated the transferability of his ability to “carry speed” to dirt. But we would all see the difference that whole experience made to Masar by the time he tackled the Epsom helter-skelter the following June.

On the face of it, Arizona had a pretty thorough grounding behind him before yesterday. He made his debut in early May, beat 16 rivals at Royal Ascot, and had since rubbed shoulders with the best of his generation in Pinatubo (Ire) (Shamardal). Nonetheless you suspect that it was only coming here that has made a man of Arizona.

Principally that's about the challenge of such an alien racing environment, a challenge that proved far too radical in the circumstances of his draw. But there's also the whole business of travelling, and adapting, and puzzling out how flexibly he might apply the athletic gifts he had been born with.

It was striking, in the parade before the stands, to see how fretful he looked. Having been rather detached from his pony, like many of the European runners here, at one point he spooked and stumbled and Ryan Moore did well not to be caught out. Moore took a lead to the gate from Wayne Lordan on stablemate Fort Myers (War Front), but unfortunately Arizona also had to be shown the way to the first turn by virtually the whole field.

His predicament was exacerbated by a relatively modest pace, certainly compared to when Hit It A Bomb (War Front) cut them all down at Keeneland in 2015. As it was, his response once getting clear was excellent. His trainer agreed that a battle had been lost, but that the war could certainly still be won.

“He'll be a lovely 3-year-old,” O'Brien said. “He gets this trip well and we think No Nay Never is going to be a little bit like Danehill, in that they will stay farther than you'd expect given the speed they have. We think a lot of them might get a mile and a quarter.

“Look, at home we concentrate all year on getting them to settle and relax, and those are probably the last things you want to be doing round here. Once he broke a little bit slow, [Ryan] had to accept that and then they didn't go that fast, so he couldn't get out until the straight. The horse will have learned a lot, and that's what we hope a lot of them will do when they come out here.”

Though the Europeans filled half the field in both the other two turf races yesterday, they found themselves collectively exposed in much the same way as Arizona.

Certainly the indigenous runners were far too alert from the gate in the GI Turf Sprint, in which none of the raiders ever got involved after trying to maintain frantic pursuit round the bend that consumed the middle portion of the race. And Albigna (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) soon had even more to do in the fillies' race than even had Arizona, doing extremely well to close into fourth.

She deferred to Daahyeh, then, as the only silver medallist of day one. That filly had a more congenial draw, in five, but let's not underestimate the diligence that went into her preparation here. The previous day she was even to be observed being ridden at the walk up and down the maze of the backside complex, a literal case of going the extra mile in acclimatisation compared with the standard procedures among the visitors.

So while Daahyeh coped more adeptly than any other European runner with the challenge, there was nothing “chastening” about their whitewash yesterday. When you are chastened, you go away constrained in your future ambition. But a lot of these horses, being so young, will instead go home fortified for their future.

Yes, we have been here before. But remember that even Groundhog Day ultimately proves to be a redemption tale. There is, admittedly, a sign over a storage company near the track that says: “If at first you don't succeed, then skydiving isn't for you.” But what some of horses will have learned yesterday should embolden their trainers to try, try and try again.