Week in Review

Over the last few weeks, the TDN has asked "racing's best and brightest" to give predictions regarding what the state of the sport will be ten years from now. Considering that most of the responses came from industry insiders who derive their living from the sport and cannot afford for things to worsen, the responses were not that surprising. Many projected a rosy future for the sport. The same sport that has many problems, some of them that will be very difficult to solve. What was lacking in the series...

The topic of the diminishing North American Thoroughbred foal crop (estimated 17,000 for 2026) came up several times during last week's Global Symposium on Racing hosted by the University of Arizona Race Track Industry Program in Tucson. This is often referred to as our industry's "horse shortage" problem. I try to avoid that term in my reporting unless I am directly quoting someone who says it. Instead, the sport has long been dealing with an "owner shortage." Breeders stand ready and willing to start producing more racehorses if only more...

Yes, it's purely hypothetical, but imagine a GI Breeders' Cup Classic without the rabbit, Contrary Thinking (Into Mischief). That's a race Fierceness (City of Light) probably would have won. Yes, he got free in the stretch and had every chance to run down Forever Young (Jpn) (Reel Steel {Jpn}) and Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) but he couldn't get the job done, finishing third, losing by 1 1/2 lengths. But too much had gone wrong for him at that point, and he could not recover. Unlike what happened in the GI...

The weekend stakes featured plenty of outcomes with Breeders' Cup implications. But while top-level races in California, Kentucky and New York yielded headline horses bound for the big Saturday of championship weekend, an ungraded $125,000 grass route for 2-year-old fillies in Maryland produced one of the more intriguing, under-the-radar candidates for Future Stars Friday. Ultimate Love is now 3-for-3 after her stylish, four-length, going-away score in the Selima Stakes at Laurel Park, and the chestnut daughter of Curlin could be bound for the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf. A homebred from...

The victory by Silent Rule (Street Boss) in Thursday's first race at Thistledown barely registered on the national radar. But it was still a pretty impressive accomplishment: With a 2 3/4-length score against the boys in the $100,000 Honey Jay Stakes for Ohio-breds, the 4-year-old filly from trainer Jay Bernardini's barn is now 10-for-10 lifetime. Silent Rule, who sold for $16,000 as a Keeneland yearling, didn't start racing until Aug. 10 last year, in the second half of her 3-year-old season. But she has now bankrolled $355,456 in purse earnings,...

There was a brief window of time about 15 months ago when 'TDN Rising Stars' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) and Fierceness (City of Light) were well established sophomores on the Triple Crown trail, and they were joined by an intriguing new shooter, Deterministic (Liam's Map), who suddenly had "wiseguy" appeal for the 2024 GI Kentucky Derby based on just two well-spaced lifetime starts. Deterministic, too, had been named a 'Rising Star' as a juvenile off an Aug. 12, 2023, debut dirt sprint victory at Saratoga for trainer Christophe Clement. But...

The folks who fought to preserve racing at the Northern California's remote half-miler in Ferndale deserve tremendous respect and credit for soldiering on to the bitter end. Make no mistake, the cessation of racing at the Humboldt County Fairgrounds in the coastal region of NorCal definitely rates as "bitter." There is no sugarcoating this one like a sticky tuft of cotton candy from the midway of Humboldt County's charmingly rural fairgrounds, whose ties to the sport date to 1896. Advocates for racing at Ferndale (pop. 1,398), a Victorian village with...

The debate will continue to rage on. Should a horse run back in the GI Preakness, just two weeks after the GI Kentucky Derby, or should they skip the Preakness and wait for the GI Belmont? What's best for the horse? What's best for the sport? This year it was Sovereignty (Into Mischief). He was a comfortable 1 1/2 length winner over Journalism (Curlin) in the Derby. But instead of running back in two weeks, his connections announced that his next start will be in the June 7 Belmont. He...

This past weekend we were three weeks out from America's most historic and important horse race, and all was quiet on the GI Kentucky Derby front. Too quiet, in fact. Compared to pro and college team sports, which have expanded their wild-card and play-in formats to capitalize on the immediacy of games with win-or-go-home playoff berths on the line, the lead-up to the Derby has silently shifted in the opposite direction. Instead of maximizing the relevancy of making the final cut as the sport's main event nears, racing rolls out...

The goal of the Kentucky Derby points system should be to make sure the 20 best 3-year olds in the sport make it into the field. Churchill Downs has tweaked the system a couple of times over the years and the changes, for the most part, have been well received. It's a different story this year. Churchill has tweaked the system so that in any race with five horses or fewer the horses receive fewer points than races with six or more horses. The rule is clearly aimed at Santa...

If you want a historical prognosticator for success in the GI Kentucky Derby, you can't do much better than running well in the GI Florida Derby. The premier stakes for sophomores at Gulfstream Park has been around since 1952, and in 73 renewals, Florida Derby participants have gone on to win that year's Kentucky Derby 25 times-a better than 1-in-3 strike rate. For perspective, the next-most-productive preps are two far older races, the GI Champagne Stakes (which dates to 1867) and the GI Blue Grass Stakes (first run in 1911),...

For much of his career, Touchuponastar (Star Guitar) was regarded as a good Louisiana-bred. Nothing more. Coming into Saturday's GII New Orleans Classic, he had won 14 races from 20 starts, but 13 of those wins had come in Louisiana-bred company. He beat open company in the 2023 Delta Mile S., but had never won a graded stakes race. Nothing figured to change in the Classic as Touchuponastar, a $15,000 yearling purchase, was set to face Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), last year's 3-year-old male champion who cost $2.3-million at the...