TDN Derby Top 12

We edge inside the two-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby with a well-bunched Top 12 hurtling toward more lucrative qualifying points races at longer distances. 1) PALADIN (c, Gun Runner--Secret Sigh, by Tapit) O-Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter M. Brant, Brook T. Smith, and Summer Wind Equine, LLC; B-Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $1,900,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $848,250. Last start: WON Feb. 14 GII Risen Star Stakes. The 3-for-3 Paladin has racked up two wins in nine-furlong...

Last week's news that juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Ted Noffey (Into Mischief) was off the GI Kentucky Derby trail because of bone bruising resulted in a No. 1 vacancy. I went right down to deadline trying to figure out which of the top three listed below should be the new kingpin. I felt I could have made a cogent case for any of them being No. 1. However, I also feel that from No. 4 on down right now it's a kaleidoscopic free-for-all to round...

We've taken the plunge into the deeper end of the prep pool for the GI Kentucky Derby. Five nine-furlong stakes each awarding 100 qualifying points are scheduled over the next two Saturdays, after which this list will expand to the Top 20. 1) CITIZEN BULL (c, Into Mischief--No Joke, by Distorted Humor) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history:...

Since the last installment of this column, the No. 1-ranked contender, First Resort (Uncle Mo), has been declared off the Triple Crown trail because of a hairline fracture, and no fewer than four other top 12 horses were bet down to favoritism but lost points-awarding graded stakes. Even after this past Saturday's trio of preps for the GI Kentucky Derby, trying to figure out a new pecking order remains challenging, like trying to coax clarity out of chaos. 1) CITIZEN BULL (c, Into Mischief--No Joke, by Distorted Humor) O-SF Racing...

We're inside the 16-week mark for the May 3 GI Kentucky Derby. That's roughly 168,000 minutes until post time, but who's counting? The initial Top 12 rankings are largely based on 2-year-old form, but a speculative element is baked into the equation with an eye toward projecting how these still-developing contenders will blossom over the winter and early spring. 1) FIRST RESORT (c, Uncle Mo--Fair Maiden, by Street Boss) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Eoin G. Harty. Lifetime Record GSW, 4-2-1-0, $338,671. Last start: WON Nov. 30 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. This...

We're inside the 120-day mark for the 150th GI Kentucky Derby, and the pecking order is hazily taking shape. There's a speculative, forward-thinking element (read: lots of guesswork) built into the equation, with the goal of projecting how these still-developing horses will blossom over the next four months. Get tied on and enjoy the ride. 1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist--Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0,...

'TDN Rising Star' Signator (Tapit), eighth on this week's TDN Derby Top 12, has been taken out of training for 60 days and is off the GI Kentucky Derby trail, according to a tweet from co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds. A winner Oct. 14 at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet, Signator was a $1.7-million purchase at last spring's OBS April sale. His latest setback comes after three breezes following a wrenched ankle in the fall. Bred by Gainesway Thoroughbreds and trained by Shug McGaughey, Signator is also owned by the partnership...

Several contenders at the top of this week's rankings solidified their status, but one new shooter debuted at No. 4 to add some intrigue as we edge past the 90-day mark to the GI Kentucky Derby. 1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo--Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0. Arabian Knight's thorough...

Next-race plans are starting to solidify for some of the contenders among the Top 12, including a possible No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup at Oaklawn in February. Farther down the list, Nos. 5 and 9 will clash this Saturday in the GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. 1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit--Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6 Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 'TDN Rising Star' Next Start: Uncommitted Equineline...