The Week in Review: Hidden Scroll Camp Likely to Stay on Derby Trail

Hidden Scroll (Hard Spun) was trying to take the Justify (Scat Daddy) route to the GI Kentucky Derby. Fail to race at two, win a maiden in breath-taking fashion, win your stakes debut and then to go on to win the Derby. In Justify's case, it also meant winning the Triple Crown.

Everyone knew that only an extraordinary horse could pull off such a feat, but it wasn't hard to imagine Hidden Scroll also being that kind of colt. That's how good he looked when breaking his maiden by 14 lengths while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 104, the highest number posted by and 3-year-old male this year.

Under normal circumstances, trainer Bill Mott would have taken his time with the colt, found an allowance race and then likely found something a bit tougher. But with the Kentucky Derby just a bit more than two months away, Mott knew that if Hidden Scroll had any chance of making the race he'd have to go into his hurry-up offense. That's why the normally conservative trainer had him in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream.

He didn't run the race Mott and the owner, 82-year-old Prince Khalid bin Abdullah's Juddmonte Farms, were hoping for. But it wasn't that bad either.

The blame for the defeat goes much more to Joel Rosario than the horse. Hidden Scroll broke a step slowly and Rosario then rushed him toward the front. But the lead had already been established by 132-1 shot Gladiator King (Curlin). Rosario dueled with the longshot through an opening quarter-mile in :22 4/5. After a half in :45 3/5, Hidden Scroll had taken command, but the damage had been done. A lot had been asked of him to get to the lead, and a lot more sensible strategy would have been to sit off Gladiator King and blow past him when the time was right. Hidden Scroll still had the lead at the eighth-pole, but he was cooked and finished fourth, three lengths behind the winner Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}).

“Yes, we are disappointed but there were no regrets that we picked this race,” said Juddmonte's U.S. racing manager Garrett O'Rourke. “The options were limited. If we had tried to get him into an allowance race, it might not have filled and then our whole schedule would have been thrown off. I'm disappointed we got into a duel with a 100-1 shot, but that sort of thing happens. As Bill said, let's turn the page and move on. Everybody felt he acquitted himself fairly well. We'll just regroup and see how he comes out if and then discus the options.”

While O'Rourke said there are no definite plans to go on to the GI Florida Derby or to stay on the Kentucky Derby trail, he made it clear that the temptation to do so will probably win out at the end of the day.

“Prince Khalid is at a certain stage in his life and he has not won the Derby and neither has Bill,” O'Rourke said. “You don't want to commit too early to not staying on the trail. The horse could show us a complete turn around in the next few weeks, so I think we'll just stay the course of what we felt beforehand and just keep on following it along. Everyone totally trusts Bill and he knows there's no pressure from us. If there are any 'ifs' we will back off, but if the horse drags us to the Derby it's an option we want to keep open.

“Yes, for the time being, we are leaning towards staying on the Derby trail. Why would you not? The Derby is the Derby. With the Derby, you've got to get right down to the deadline before you pull yourself out. There is a feeling of disappointment that we got beat, but a good feeling that we still have a potentially special horse. We're very confident we have a very good horse.”

For now, the leader of the eastern division eyeing Louisville is Fountain of Youth winner Code of Honor. He rebounded from a surprisingly poor effort in the Mucho Macho Man and re-established the form he showed at two when second in the GI Champagne S. What he needs to do now is something no other Florida-based 3 year-old has been able to do so far–show some consistency.

A Missed Opportunity for Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs is a bottom-lined company, and while there's nothing wrong with that it sometimes loses sight of the fact that good will and good public relations matter, too.

It was certainly welcome news for owners and trainers when Churchill announced last week that its first condition book would include a 46 percent purse increase over last year's levels. The money is coming from profits from instant racing machines at Churchill's Derby City Gaming venue, where business has been much better than anyone expected. It's great news for the owners, and they deserve it. It's very difficult to make a profit owning horses and the purse increase will put needed money in their pockets. Owners are the second most important segment of the game.

Who's first? The horseplayer. Without them, there would be no owners, there would be no racing. Because takeout levels in horse racing are so high, and well above the norm for virtually every other type of gambling, people who play the horses largely take a beating. But they are a remarkably loyal bunch and keep coming back for more. But how long can that last?

Handle on American racing peaked in 2003 at $15.1 billion. It now down to $10.9 billion. Even without factoring in inflation, that's a 28% decline. In any other industry, they would be panicking. In racing, there hardly seems to be any concern, and one of the reasons for that is that so many racing operators, like Churchill, are making so much money off their slot or instant racing machines that the drop in wagering is, well, just not a big deal.

In 2014, Churchill Downs announced that it was raising takeout. The takeout on win, place and show bets went from 16% to 17.5%. The take on “exotic” wagers was raised from 19 to 22%.

The given reason was that Churchill needed the additional money it would take in from a higher takeout to use for extra purse money to stay competitive with other states.

“If Churchill Downs is to present a competitive racing product, purses must be strong enough to keep current stables in the state and attract new stables and horses to the Kentucky racing circuit,” the late John Asher, a Churchill Downs spokesman, said at the time. “Our stakes program is also essential to attracting and retaining stables filled with quality horses. Without the change in takeout, our purses in the spring meet would have certainly declined, stakes purses would have been reduced, and some stakes races would have been dropped from the schedule.”

Based on that logic, now that Churchill purses have skyrocketed due to the instant racing games, there should no longer be any need to pick the horseplayers' pockets with the higher takeout. Apparently, management doesn't see it that way, as there have been no announcements about lowering the takeout back to its former levels.

This was a perfect opportunity for Churchill, which comes under a lot of criticism, to look like the good guys for once. Be one of the few tracks that is looking out for the player and give them a break. Give them back the lower takeout. Doesn't look like it's gong to happen. No surprise there.

The Parx Jinx

The year 2018 was a special one for horses on the Parx backstretch as they had a champion in Jaywalk (Cross Traffic), the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner. Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief) won the GII Remsen S., Discreet Lover (Repent) captured the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup and Imperial Hint (Imperialism) won three stakes, including the GI Alfred Vanderbilt H. and the GI Vosburgh S..

Now, it seems as if they are cursed.

Jaywalk was fourth as the 1-5 favorite in Saturday's GII Davona Dale S. at Gulfstream. Imperial Hint was third at 1-5 in the Pelican S. at Tampa Bay Downs and Maximus Mischief was a dull third at 9-10 in the GII Holy Bull S. and is off the Kentucky Derby trail.

Strange Doings at Delta Downs

How can there be two winners of a race when there is not a dead-heat involved? In what may be a racing first, it happened Saturday at Delta Downs.

In the first race, there was a tight finish between Mi Copa Rebosa (My Pal Charlie) and New Orleans Spice (Good and Tough). The placing judges posted Mi Copa Rebosa as the winner and then everything seemed fine. It was not until the third race that it was apparent that something was amiss as the start of that race was delayed and the horses were sent back to the paddock.

It turns out that someone discovered that the placing judges had posted the wrong number, that New Orleans Spice had actually won the race. The rules in most states, Louisiana included (and I have looked this up) is that once the official sign is posted there can be no changes to the payoffs or order of finish.

Delta management decided to pay off on both horses in the win and daily double pools and didn't treat the race as a dead-heat. The payoffs were made based on the closing odds at post time for both horses. For whatever reason, they treated the Pick Three and Pick Four differently. Only those holding tickets on Mi Copa Rebosa, the winner who wasn't, stayed alive in their wagers.

The winner's share of the purse was paid to the owners of New Orleans Spice.