Strategic Risk (Noble Bird) rolled into town from Florida, and not only topped the exacta in the Smarty Jones Stakes for his connections, but also took home Kentucky Derby points in the process.
Dominating a maiden field at first asking June 7 at Gulfstream Park against fellow Florida-breds, he missed the board in back to back graded starts at Saratoga, but bounced back to run third Oct. 18 in the Florida Sired Affirmed Stakes. Building on that effort, and at his first trip at 1 1/16-miles over the main track last out Nov. 29, he rolled off the screen by nine lengths to win the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes.
Sent off here at 5-2 odds, the son of Noble Bird was content to stalk from second as Louisiana invader Scar Ship (Midshipman) set the pace through an opening fraction in :24.48 and posted a half-mile in :49.72. Pushing to the head of affairs after soft fractions through the far bend, he poked a head in front entering the stretch and the race was over from there. Extending his lead, the victor coasted in to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Stablemate Silent Tactic (Tacitus) closed from the back to claim second and Baytown Dreamer (Mendelssohn) claimed third.
Strategic Risk picked up 10 points toward the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and currently sits in 11th in an eight-way tie with other runners who have the same tally.
“I communicated this morning back and forth with Javier (Castellano),” said Casse. “I told him, looking at everything, I said: 'I don't think they can beat him.' We felt pretty confident going in.”
“I thought his last race, I know that he didn't beat a lot in the Stallion Stakes, but the way he did it and the ease he did it with, I just felt like he was going to be tough. Now, midway through the card, I communicated with Javier again and said: 'Boy oh boy, speed is very tough.' He said: 'Yeah, I know, I'm worried about that.' But once they broke and he was where he was, I always thought he was a winner.”
“I just watched the replay and the horse that ran a heck of a race was Silent Tactic because he got bothered two or three times down the backside. They just made it tight on him. He came running. That was his first dirt race, so I think he'll move forward as well.”
Casse included that Strategic Risk would be pointed to the GIII Southwest Stakes Jan. 31 at Oaklawn.
Strategic Risk is the most recent stakes winner for Strategize, who has also produced two other black-type horses–full-siblings to this victor named Strategic Bird and Just Relax. The former produced a 2025 filly by Mitole as her most recent offspring. The mare also claims a juvenile full-sister to that trio as well as a 2025 colt by Roadster. She went back to that stallion for 2026.
🌹 #7 STRATEGIC RISK ($7.00) puts himself on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a victory in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at @OaklawnRacing. This is the second stakes win for the three-year-old Noble Bird colt. @jjcjockey was aboard for @markecasse. pic.twitter.com/dotatW2Ewl
— FanDuel Racing (@FanDuel_Racing) January 3, 2026
SMARTY JONES S., $250,000, Oaklawn, 1-3, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:45.06, ft.
1–STRATEGIC RISK, 119, c, 3, by Noble Bird
1st Dam: Strategize, by Afleet Alex
2nd Dam: Strategy, by A.P. Indy
3rd Dam: Educated Risk, by Mr. Prospector
O-John C. Oxley; B-John Oxley Living Trust (FL); T-Mark E. Casse; J-Javier Castellano. $138,750. Lifetime Record: 6-3-0-1, $392,300. *Full to Strategic Bird, MSW, $116,130.
2–Silent Tactic, 117, c, 3, Tacitus–Magical Sign, by Gun Runner. ($60,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $500,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR). O-John C. Oxley; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. $46,250.
3–Baytown Dreamer, 117, c, 3, Mendelssohn–Colerful Bride, by Munnings. ($5,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $70,000 RNA 2yo '25 IGDAPR). O-Baytown Partnerships; B-Brookstone Farm, Lee Mauberret, & James Blazek (KY); T-Paul McEntee. $23,125.
Margins: 4HF, 3/4, 4. Odds: 2.50, 14.10, 84.30.
Also Ran: Sleepingonfreedom, Rancho Santa Fe, Scar Ship, Universe, Oscar's Hope. Scratched: Boca Beach Club.
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