Ian Wilkes doesn't rush his young horses. You won't seem them running in 4 1/2-furlong races at Keeneland in the spring and they may not peak until late in their 3-year-old year or even early in their 4-year-old year. That's probably why he's had only one starter in the GI Kentucky Derby, McCraken (Ghostzapper), who finished eighth in the 2017 GI Kentucky Derby.
But this time it's different. Wilkes has come up with a horse that has forced his way into the Derby picture. That was evident when the Wilkes-trained Burnham Square (Liam's Map) recorded an impressive win in last Saturday's GIII Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. To talk about Burnham Square and the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Wilkes was this week's Gainesway Guest of the Week on the TDN Writers' Room Podcast, Presented by Keeneland.
“Definitely, I'm all about developing horses,” said the native of Muswellbrook, Australia. “I love to develop horses and I learned that from Carl Nafzger. To make money in this game, you've got to build asset value in the horses. And so you just let them come along at their pace. Some come along quicker, some are more precocious, some aren't.”
Typical of a Wilkes first-time-starter, the gelding ran well in his debut, finishing second in a $150,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland. But he ran a 58 Beyer, which suggested that maybe the best they could hope for was that he would be a nice allowance horse. He ran an improved second in his next race and then took a quantum leap forward in the following start. Wearing blinkers for the first time, he won by nine lengths and recorded an 86 Beyer. That set him up well for the Holy Bull, which he won despite a less-than-perfect trip. His winning margin was 1 3/4 lengths over the race favorite, Tappan Street (Into Mischief), and he ran a 90 Beyer.
Wilkes knows that Burnham Square has yet to run the kind of race that suggests he'll be a top contender in the Derby, but he also knows we haven't seen the best of this horse yet.
“It's each race, it's development,” he said. “Did I want to see him run a 102 Beyer on Saturday? No, because then where do I go from there? How do I keep improving if I top him out right there? Each race, I want him to get better. He'll have to because the water is going to get deeper. He has to learn how to run against these horses too. If you look at him, he doesn't win any beauty contests. He's a plain little horse, but he just keeps running. You've got to love him. But you've got to let him do it. I don't want him to run that 100 yet. I want him to run that 100 in the Kentucky Derby.
In our “Fastest Horse of the Week,” segment, which is sponsored by WinStar, we went over the many reasons there are to breed to WinStar stallion Nashville. With a 110 Beyer in her win in the GII Santa Monica Stakes, Kopion (Omaha Beach) was the “fastest horse of the week.”
Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, West Point Thoroughbreds, XBTV.com, the KTOB and 1/ST Racing, the team of Randy Moss and Bill Finley reviewed the major 3-year-old preps of the weekend, which included a rousing comeback win for Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) in the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Moss admitted he's not yet sold on this horse. Because he is winning his races after getting an uncontested lead, Moss does not so much as have him in his Top 5 in his Derby rankings.
While Bob Baffert had a good weekend, the only surprise was that he didn't have a better weekend. He had three of the five starters in the Lewis, three of the four starters in the Santa Monica and two of three starters in Sunday's GIII Las Virgenes S., won by his Tenma (Nyquist). Only Santa Monica winner Kopion stood between Baffert and a stakes sweep. Finley and Moss agreed that Baffert's dominance was a problem that creates too many uncompetitive races that don't appeal to the bettors, but they also agreed that there is nothing anybody can do about it.
To listen to the audio of this week's podcast, click here. For video, click here.
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