Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Louisiana Derby & Jeff Ruby Steaks

TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides analysis for Saturday's pair of GI Kentucky Derby preps–the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby and GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks.

GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby – After being offered in a pair of maiden claimers at two, #9 Instant Replay (Maximum Security) really elevated his game for Brad Cox in his 3-year-old debut, closing impressively (albeit into a hot pace) from last of six to win with authority (came home in :31) by five lengths in an optional claimer at Fair Grounds Feb. 17. He should get plenty of pace to close into again here and a repeat of that performance–good for a career-high 92 Beyer Speed Figure–makes him a major player at what has to be a solid price. #5 Caldera (Liam's Map) ran too good to lose with a wide trip in the Sunland Park Derby and has been working sharply for the Coach since. #10 Hypnus (Into Mischief), a head-turning 'TDN Rising Star' debut winner around two turns over this track, deserves another shot at double digits off a nightmare trip in the GII Rebel. Selection: #9 Instant Replay (6-1).

GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks – I always tend to gravitate towards a turf horse with a nice turn of foot for Turfway's Jeff Ruby Steaks. #5 Flying Mohawk (Karakontie {Jpn}), a visually impressive winner over the lawn in his last two at Churchill and Fair Grounds, certainly meets that criteria this year. He came home the right way in both of those victories, and his pedigree (out of a Twirling Candy mare) says that the switch to synthetic should be right up his alley. Absolutely no knocks on last year's GII Remsen winner and morning-line favorite #9 Poster (Munnings), who also has a pair of turf wins on his resume. He ran on nicely from far back to finish third in a race completed dominated on the front end in the Sam F. Davis. #7 Giocoso (Not This Time) is another with some solid turf form and should be every bit of his 30-1 morning-line quote entering off a dismal run in the GII Fasig-Tipton Risen Star. #12 He's Not Joking (Practical Joke) did absolutely nothing wrong in four tries over Woodbine's all-weather last year, led by a win in the GIII Grey. He comes in way under the radar following a pair of disappointing runs in Kentucky Derby preps on dirt. Selection: #5 Flying Mohawk (15-1).