From the TIF: The Future of Derby Futures & Modernizing Betting

Coady

The speed of legal sports betting's expansion across America in the last four years has surprised even the most bullish advocates. On any given day in a majority of states, Americans can bet on just about any outcome in the world of sports.

The next point in a game of tennis. The total runs in the next inning of a baseball game. The number of corner kicks for a team in a soccer match.

But if you legally wanted to bet on the Kentucky Derby other than the day before or day of the race, you have but a few weekends to place pari-mutuel bets, in limited pools, and through underdeveloped advanced deposit wagering.

Churchill Downs offered five opportunities to bet Derby futures for its 2022 edition, to be run this coming Saturday. Win and exacta pools were available, as well as a bet on the winner's sire and the sires of the exacta finishers. Total handle across all of the Derby-only pools was $1.88 million. An Oaks/Derby double future was offered and handled less than $85,000.

Roll back the clock to 2002 and Derby future betting was just three pools over three weekends with win betting only. Total handle that year was a combined $1.5 million which when adjusted for inflation, equates to about $2.36 million today. Despite additional pools and dates, interest measured by inflation-adjusted handle is down about 20%.

Sports betting is not legal in Kentucky at present, but that would not preclude Churchill Downs from striking future deals with operators in states that permit fixed-odds betting on racing.

The opportunity for the Kentucky Derby and its qualifying series to dominate the landscape in coming years is strong. While pari-mutuel futures on the big race have stagnated, a far more diverse market of fixed-odds opportunities should be within reach.

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