Week in Review: Derby Odds Look Askew? Blame the 'Gronk Effect'

It's a little too early to be making confident, bankable GI Kentucky Derby predictions, but here's one that has all the appearances of a certainty: If Gronkowski (Lonhro {Aus}) ships from England and starts as planned in the 144th Run for the Roses, the colt will represent the single biggest media-driven underlay in the history of America's most historic and important horse race.

We're about to witness a “perfect storm” of online and broadcast hype that has everything to do with the power of an oft-repeated, easy-to-grasp, celebrity-fueled narrative and practically zero to do with the racehorse himself.

Behavioral economists–specialists who study the effects of psychological, social, and emotional factors on marketplace decisions–will have a field day dissecting the herd mentality that will likely drive Gronkowski's price to below 20-1 odds on Derby day when, in fact, the horse more logically projects to have actual chances of winning that are four or five times that price.

That's an avalanche of an odds shift considering the Derby's single-race straight and exotic pools annually hover near $125 million, making the race far and away the highest-volume pari-mutuel event of the year in the United States.

In case you've been living under a rock, the reason for all this attention is because the horse is named in honor of Rob Gronkowski, the larger-than-life, highly animated National Football League star. Fueling the frenzy, the human Gronk just last week bought a minority ownership interest in the British-based colt, who recently earned an invite to start at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May by winning the European Road to the Kentucky Derby points series.

The All-Pro, Super Bowl-winning tight end may be a favorite passing target of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Yet the human Gronk's presence in Louisville will represent an even bigger, can't-miss bulls eye for mainstream media.

Gronk not only delivers on the football field, but he's affable, highly quotable, very active on social media, and just controversial enough to cause mildly sensational stirs without sullying his sport. A veteran of eight seasons, Gronk now stars in video games and television shows, has authored an autobiography, and has even had a breakfast cereal and an energy drink named after him. Up in my neck of the woods here in Boston, he's a year-round media mainstay who commands off-season coverage in sports sections and celebrity gossip pages alike, and not a day seems to go by without some sort of Gronk chronicle, whether it's photos of him smilingly visiting children in hospitals or partying wildly (and often shirtless) at the trendiest nightclubs.

Brady and his entourage have been Derby-day regulars on Millionaire's Row for years now, and you perhaps recall the zany plaid-suit-and-sunglasses look Gronk sported when he raucously attended the Derby in 2015. Now returning to Louisville with an ownership interest, Gronk the athlete is bound to be more of a charismatic draw in the Churchill paddock than his equine namesake, making him an irresistible magnet for network television crews seeking A-list sound bites.

Gronkowski (the horse) has never run on dirt nor beyond a mile, and the British competition he's beaten in four straight races has largely consisted of non-Classic caliber foes and even one three-horse field. Since his connections committed to the race, he's been ranked No. 20 on the last two weekly installments of the TDN Derby Top 20. His chances aren't zilch in the Derby, but he's certainly up against the grain of convention and will be facing one of the deepest Derby fields in years. Any rational handicapper would have a difficult case justifying his chances at below 80-1 based on all the unknowns in his form and the fact that he has to ship across an ocean to race over an unproven surface/distance in the most pressure-packed and chaotic two minutes the sport has to offer on this side of the Atlantic.

None of this is meant as a knock against the horse. Gronkowski may be a bona fide long shot, but he earned his spot in the race, and we all know that long shots taking a chance in the Derby represent aspirations and dreams that fuel real-life participation in the sport. I can even appreciate the undeniable marketing wallop Gronk's presence will deliver in terms of legitimizing how cool Thoroughbred ownership–or even just a day at the races–can be. But I remain floored by the potential that this narrative has to skew the betting. If you want to wager on any other horse, it's like the entire rest of the pari-mutuel market will be on sale by a few percentage points.

The echo chamber of social media amplifying easily digestible story lines is a relatively new phenomenon, but it's clearly going to have an effect on this and future Derbies.

We saw a hint of it last year, when Patch (Union Rags) went off at 14-1 instead of the 45-1 or so odds that represented his truer chances of winning. Here was a horse who had started only three times, had never won a two-turn race, drew post 20, and was ridden by a first-time Derby jockey. Yet by Derby day, every casual fan in the country knew the oft-repeated inspirational story about how Patch was trying to succeed as a racehorse despite being blind in his left eye, and people weren't just rooting for him to overcome that adversity–they were backing that feel-good sentiment with real money, and it showed noticeably on the tote board (Patch finished 14th).

There's a separate irony to the Gronk tale, too: Churchill Downs rolled out its seven-race European Road to the Derby series in an attempt to generate overseas interest in America's most famous horse race. Yet unintentionally, the luring of the two Gronkowskis is going to pay far greater dividends here in the States than any other type of marketing gimmick the track might have cooked up to generate domestic interest.

You can't buy that type of hype. But you shouldn't bet on it, either.

Supreme Court Decision 'Overdue'

Perhaps in the future, bettors who want to bank on Gronkowski in a race like the Derby will be able to make a parlay wager that links to Gronk's team's chances in the Super Bowl.

That possibility was mentioned in a roundabout way at last Thursday's California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) meeting, when CHRB executive director Rick Baedeker gave a report that detailed some of the regulatory items that were discussed at the recent Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI) meeting in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

Baedeker reported that the ARCI consensus seemed to be that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS)'s decision on the legality of sports betting was “really overdue at this point.”

SCOTUS heard oral arguments to decide Christie v. National Collegiate Athletic Association back on Dec. 4, and at the time, many legal experts had predicted a decision by March.

The landmark case will have far-reaching reverberations within the Thoroughbred industry because the showdown in the nation's highest court between the state of New Jersey and America's collegiate and professional sports leagues will either affirm or reject the constitutionality of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (PASPA), which currently prohibits most state-sponsored sports gambling.

“The panel interpreted [the delay] as probably meaning that the Supreme Court is going to make a major decision here, not just simply relative to New Jersey,” Baedeker said. “Nobody knows for sure, of course. Then there was the question about the interaction between sports betting and racing. Somebody talked about the possibilities of combining different parlay wagers…with perhaps other sporting events, and then culminating with a major race at a racetrack, and who in that instance would regulate something like that. So it's a fascinating discussion–and one that I'm guessing we'll be spending some time on in the not-too-distant future.”