TwinSpires.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Rebel

TwinSpires.com

Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.

DeRosa: Last Week – Not that we play for seconds, but given the cobwebs in the win column, I'm not displeased with either of my picks. State of Honor ran his race and just got beat. Given the $7 mutuel to place that was a good bet even if he's an unlikely Derby type. Iliad clearly wasn't better than Mastery, but he did get the best of Gormley, and with Mastery off the trail, he's still the one I want most of anyone from last weekend (i.e., I like Iliad more than Tapwrit [or anyone from the Tampa Bay Derby]). Bankroll: $1720.

GII Rebel S. – Only one race this week, and I really like Malagacy to keep the good times rolling in Hot Springs for trainer Todd Pletcher. Sure, Baffert has won this race three times in a row and six of the last seven years, and American Anthem merits respect, but between his 2-1 morning line (versus Malagacy's 4-1), and Gormley's dud last week, there's enough here for me to prefer the up-and-comer here for a trainer who's already shipped in this type and won a graded stakes at the meeting, and I think Malagacy is even better meant here than One Liner. Selection: #6 Malagacy (4-1).

DiDonato: Last Week Iliad picked each of us up some place money, but he was simply no match for the brilliant Mastery in the San Felipe. Very unfortunate what happened to the latter… I'm not sure exactly how much it mattered, but Beasley never saved an inch of ground in the Tampa Bay Derby. According to Trakus, he went an extra 30 ft. (approx. 3 1/2 lengths) more than the winner; 44 ft. more than State of Honor (5+ lengths); and 40 ft. more than Wild Shot (about 4 3/4 lengths). Bankroll: $1330.

GII Rebel S. – Out-of-town invaders Malagacy and American Anthem are each undeniably talented and borderline brilliant, but when you put them together on the track with the very speedy future graded stakes-winning sprinter Uncontested and front-running Bob Lewis hero Royal Mo, a meltdown seems all but imminent. Silver Dust feels like the right closer–I thought he ran a better race in the Southwest than Lookin at Lee, though that one seems to have a bit of a fan club. Silver Dust never really never got a clear run in the stretch last time while stuck down inside, but he galloped out very strongly. The well-bred, but somewhat immature colt might improve from that learning experience and a more outside post, and could be sitting on a breakout performance at a nice price. Selection: #8 Silver Dust (15-1).

Sherack: Last Week Wild Shot (Tampa Bay Derby) and Iliad (San Felipe) both ran solid races in defeat while hitting the board, but it wasn't enough to keep me in the lead… Swinging for the fences this week. Bankroll: $1480.

GII Rebel S. – There's every chance that I still may be a bit sleep deprived after a hectic week in Ocala, but I like a major longshot here. The maiden of eight starts Sonneteer has been on my watch list for quite some time now after making several flashy moves over speed-favoring surfaces in Southern California. The stretch-running son of Midnight Lute finally ships out of town and will get more than enough pace to close into in this ambitious spot. This wouldn't be the first time that trainer Keith Desormeaux has pulled off a huge upset in a race like this either. Selection: #3 Sonneteer (30-1).

Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.

Copy Article Link

X

Never miss another story from the TDN

Click Here to sign up for a free subscription.