Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets – highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeROSA: Last Week – I bounced off the Old Time Revival pick and didn't add much to my score except another chalky place finish on a Baffert runner (Solomoni last week to follow McKinzie the previous week), but we're ready to fire at the Louisiana and Sunland Derbys as the 100-point (to the winner) races begin and the 50-point (to the winner) races conclude. DeROSA BANKROLL: $2320.
GII Louisiana Derby – I don't see anything too crazy happening in the Louisiana Derby where the Risen Star trio of winner Bravazo, runner-up Snapper Sinclair, and trifecta filler Noble Indy figure along with Southwest S. winner My Boy Jack. I sided with Noble Indy, who I think will be closer than last time given the extra half-furlong and addition of blinkers by trainer Todd Pletcher. His race two back is about as fast as what any of these have run besides My Boy Jack, who has to replicate his Southwest on a track that has favored speed. Noble Indy for me on top. Selection: #2 Noble Indy (7-2).
SHERACK: Last Week – Tough beat with Pony Up, who ran too good to lose (second, beaten a neck, at 6-1) in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway. Title Ready, meanwhile, gave me a decent run for my money, setting a fast pace and tiring to fourth at 14-1 in the Rebel. Still plenty of time left to find this year's Sonneteer. SHERACK BANKROLL: $1520.
GII Louisiana Derby – Really wanted to give Retirement Fund another chance in this spot, but there's just too much early speed signed on for me to pull the trigger on the son of Eskendereya. With the potential threat of a pace collapse, the stretch-running Lone Sailor has every right to move forward at a big price in his third start off a freshening for the very dangerous Tom Amoss barn. He's quietly run some good races in defeat at two and three, and this stretch out in distance to 1 1/8 miles and projected hot early pace scenario may be exactly what he's looking for. Selection: #8 Lone Sailor (20-1).
DiDONATO: Last Week – Getting dangerously close to losing my lead now.. . Neither of my picks last week made any impact, but Higher Power still interests me slightly moving forward. DiDONATO BANKROLL: $2590.
GII Louisiana Derby – I've attempted to handicap this race probably five different times now, and just haven't fallen in love with anything. Maybe it's the pressure of Ed catching up or knowing that Sherack's one ridiculous 99-1 shot winning a photo for second away from blowing this thing apart like he did last year. My original idea in here was Retirement Fund, so I'm going to stop over thinking it and just commit to him. The negative take on him is that he proved last time that he needs the lead and he obviously won't get an easy one here. But it's not like the Southwest didn't feature a borderline meltdown, and he seemed to really be spinning his wheels in the mud. Maybe he just hated the surface, and now he returns to a dry strip over which he's two for two. He's still got too much promise for what his expected odds will be. Selection: #5 Retirement Fund (12-1).
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