Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets-highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.
DiDonato: GII Fountain of Youth S. – Bourbon War (+$250) obviously got a set-up, but he ran a very nice race to be a fast-finishing second. Bankroll: $9420.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – The Right Path strikes me as a horse who will clearly appreciate two turns. He looked good winning his six-furlong debut back in November, and had every right to pack it in last out at Gulfstream when a very awkward spot pretty much throughout, but fought on well for third before being moved up a slot by the stewards. I'm not entirely sure where he'll be early, as he's got a lot of cruising speed and could get sucked into sitting too close to the front, but if he works out the right stalking trip he should keep going in the lane. He's by Quality Road out of an unraced Bernardini half-sister to Fed Biz from a huge female family, so the pedigree appeal's certainly there. Selection: #8 The Right Path (15-1).
GIII Gotham S. – My first inclination was to just take Instagrand–who still has every right to pick up where he left off and prove one of the best members of a pretty promising crop–but the amount of other speed signed on and the cross-country ship makes me hesitant to take too short of a price. Haikal was very brave to eventually squeeze up a tight spot on the rail in the Winkfield. He's the one I'm most confident will be finishing late. He may be closing into a distant second behind Instagrand, but place money's fine too. Selection: #5 Haikal (6-1).
GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks – I really struggled with this one… How about Five Star General? It looks like his connections were trying to get him on the grass last year, but he won twice in off-the-turfers. He was floated pretty wide into the first turn of the Sam Davis last time, and just ran an overall weird race–maybe he didn't like that quirky surface. He figures to work out a much cleaner stalking trip this time, and that could mean a return to form pver a turf-friendly surface he may appreciate. Selection: #3 Five Star General (6-1).
Sherack: GII Fountain of Youth S. – Bourbon War fell too far back early for his own good and put in a huge stretch rally to finish a promising second. In your face, DiDonato. Oh.. wait. You picked him too? Bankroll: $830.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – Dream Maker and Win Win Win are both awfully imposing and worthy favorites off their last two victories, but I'll shop for a little value with Outshine. The son of Malibu Moon wasn't the flashiest 1x winner by any means while covering plenty of ground in his seven-furlong comebacker at Gulfstream, but he certainly ran like a horse that would appreciate more distance after leveling off nicely in deep stretch with first-time blinkers. Considering all the success that trainer Todd Pletcher has had at Tampa Bay in these preps in recent years, this is a hard horse to pass on if he's anywhere near his morning-line quote. Selection: #6 Outshine (8-1).
GIII Gotham S. – With so much speed signed on in the Gotham, my immediate inclination was to go with a closer. While the talented stretch-running Haikal certainly makes a ton of sense from a dynamics standpoint, a horse he defeated last time is where I'll end up. Tikhvin Flew broke his maiden like a good thing first out in a live race over this course in early January, then was really against the track when third with a wide trip as the favorite in the Jimmy Winkfield. He's drawn well on the outside here, has a bullet five-furlong work since and could get first run on what figures to be a lively early pace at a big price. Selection: #8 Tikhvin Flew (12-1).
GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks – Somelikeithotbrown, third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and a sharp winner of Turfway's Battaglia Memorial in his comebacker, is clearly the horse to beat and should work out a perfect trip sitting just off pacesetters Dynamic Racer and Five Star General. Take the short price. Selection: #10 Somelikeithotbrown (8-5).
DeRosa: GII Fountain of Youth S. – Vekoma was third. Bankroll: $680.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – Selection: #7 Win Win Win (5-2).
GIII Gotham S. – Selection: #6 Instagrand (1-1).
GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks – Selection: #8 Twelfthofneverland (12-1).
Click for Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham & Jeff Ruby Steaks Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com.
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
