Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets – highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: Last Week – Based on Vouch's performance in an allowance race earlier this week, it probably worked in my favor that I scratched into Catholic Boy–even if the favorite disappointed at odds on, I have to think the $130 I booked for his second-place finish is more than the 0 I likely would have gotten with Vouch. Bankroll: $770.
GII Risen Star S – Both Instilled Regard and Noble Indy intrigue most, and I'll trust the morning line maker that the latter will go off a longer price and thus is a better play than the Lecomte winner who returns to New Orleans for Racing Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Selection: #2 Noble Indy (5-1).
El Camino Real Derby – While I'm not picking my fellow Ohio native in the Risen Star, I do think he can get the job done in the El Camino Real with Choo Choo, who is one of only two of the nine entrants of this Kentucky Derby points race nominated to the Triple Crown. Selection: #4 Choo Choo (9-5).
Sherack: Last Week – Vino Rosso (third at 2-1) seems to be the one that everyone wants going forward out of the Sam F. Davis, but that really doesn't do me much good here, does it? Bankroll: $220.
GII Risen Star S. – Principe Guilherme's first two attempts were impressive enough to think that he can move forward off a solid runner-up finish as the 6-5 chalk after covering all the ground in the GIII Lecomte S. He is drawn wide again here, but the longer run to the first turn and added distance should both play to his favor. Selection: #9 Principe Guilherme (7-2).
El Camino Real Derby – Paved looks like the one to beat in this ambitious spot taking on the boys after a visually impressive maiden breaker at this distance over the Santa Anita lawn. Paved's co-owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners also won last weekend's California Oaks S. at Golden Gate with European invader Consolida (GB). Selection: #1 Paved (2-1).
DiDonato: Last Week – I'm kind of disgusted with myself for my Sam F. Davis decision last week. After original play Vouch scratched and took a bunch of the speed out of the race, I ended up on longshot maiden deep closer Navy Armed Guard, rather than likely loose leader Flameaway. Oops. Bankroll: $1710.
GII Risen Star S – I'm generally somewhat hesitant to expect a horse who has been very effective sprinting to stretch out successfully, but Supreme Aura looks like one who will relish the added real estate. He sat fairly close in both of his blowout sprint wins, but he never seemed particularly comfortable doing it–he wasn't just cruising, he was pushed along to keep pace. He appeared to just be getting going at the end of his six-furlong journeys, and on pedigree he should want to go farther being that he's by Candy Ride from a family of pretty much all two-turn horses. The trainer/jockey combo of Stidham and Bravo is deadly, and I like those stamina-building six-furlong breezes. Selection: #6 Supreme Aura (8-1).
El Camino Real Derby – I've been touting Paved since before her debut off a very visually impressive sales breeze at OBS March, and was glad to see her put it all together with a dominant effort going this distance over the Santa Anita turf last out. She enjoyed an admittedly easy trip that day, but she also settled much better under Drayden Van Dyke, who fits her perfectly. This looks like very smart spotting for this filly–she clearly likes nine panels, should handle the Tapeta well given how she did in Ocala, and certainly doesn't face the scariest group of males ever assembled. She'll get pace as well and should blow past them all late. Selection: #1 Paved (2-1).
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
