TwinSpires.com Road to the Triple Crown Throwdown: LeComte

TwinSpires.com

Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.

DeRosa: Smarty Jones S. – I'm willing to give Warrior's Club one given the track condition in the Smarty Jones, but he was never in it at 9-2, which was dead on the board, and the money that wasn't there was right. Bankroll: $0.

GIII LeComte S. – I don't like to bet back losers at 2-5 who figure to be favored again at the same class, but it looks like we'll get the right price to give Running Mate a mulligan for his last. He's been firing bullets, which gives confidence that whatever went wrong last time when never really looking comfortable (indeed, he was DQ'd from 2nd) has been fixed. His first two races are good enough to beat these, and even with expected scratches given the weather, the price should be OK. Selection: #9 Running Mate (10-1).

DiDonato: Smarty Jones S. – Took a stab and completely missed, as Unbridled Eagle was a dead-on-the-board, distant sixth. Bankroll: $0.

GIII LeComte S.Totality overcame a wide trip and some greenness to best promising J Boys Echo sprinting first out at Churchill, and he simply had no chance when stretched out there next time. Seemingly unfocused in the early going, he woke up turning for home, but got completely buried behind horses at the top of the lane. He closed decently once able to get clear, but had too much left to do at that point. It was sort of more of the same for Totality last time in the Springboard Mile–they allowed the favorite to get completely loose through dawdling splits, but Totality still made up good ground in the lane from far back. He figures to get a bit more pace this time around, and should be a fair price in a seemingly wide-open event. Selection: #3 Totality (12-1).

Sherack: Smarty Jones S.Petrov proved no match for the very impressive Uncontested, but ran well enough in defeat to give me a slight early advantage here. Bankroll: $170.

GIII LeComte S. Now this was a fun one to handicap. I'm going to take a swing on the maiden Arklow, who arguably ran a better race in defeat chasing home the highly regarded Takeoff after that one was allowed to carve out some pretty easy fractions last time. Arklow was well-bet in his debut for trainer Brad Cox going seven furlongs at Churchill last November and showed some late interest to report home a well-beaten third that day after getting outsprinted early. The Donegal Racing colorbearer lost his race before they even sprung the latch in his two-turn debut with first-time Lasix beneath the Twin Spires just three weeks later–he acted up badly in the gate and subsequently hopped in the air at the start–and finished seventh, but took a major step forward in his aforementioned most recent attempt over this track and trip last time. With two solid works since, red-hot connections in his corner and a favorable inside draw, another step forward can put him right in the winner's circle at a big price here. Selection: #2 Arklow (10-1).

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