Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeROSA – Bankroll $3,685.
Last Week – Irish War Cry (won Wood Memorial at 7-2); Practical Joke (2nd – Blue Grass); Iliad (5th – Santa Anita Derby).
A win by Irish War Cry and a second by Practical Joke helped me pick up some points on Steve Sherack as the TwinSpires.com Thoroughbred Daily News Triple Crown Throwdown enters its final week (and final two races). I really liked what I saw from Irish War Cry. The question with him come May 6 is what price in the Kentucky Derby allows one to forgive his Fountain of Youth. Given the buzz on Always Dreaming and an expected win by Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby, that price might be right.
GI Arkansas Derby – Speaking of the Arkansas Derby, it's one of the last two races that could allow me to catch Steve, and even though Classic Empire is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby, and I want to see him win in Hot Springs, if I'm going to win the TwinSpires Throwdown then I need an upset, and we'll go with the Sunland Derby form and Conquest Mo Money. Several months ago I liked a horse named Underwood coming out of New Mexico and even bet him at 325-1 to win the Kentucky Derby. He never fired, but my interest in him made me watch the New Mexico 3-year-old races leading up to the Sunland Derby, and Conquest Mo Money impressed me. Throw in how Hence has looked since his win and Irap upsetting the Blue Grass, and the Sunland race is coming up strong. Selection: #11 Conquest Mo Money (15-1).
GIII Lexington S. – The Stonestreet Lexington Stakes offers Kentucky Derby points, but the winner would need many defections to qualify with 10 points. Still, it could have later 3-year-old implications, and from an upset perspective I like Lookin at Blessing for Racing Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, who heated up at one point earlier this year, and this seems like the type of race he could spring an upset in. Selection: #9 Lookin At Blessing (15-1).
DiDONATO – Bankroll: $2645.
Last Week – I owe Irish War Cry big time–without him, I'd basically be getting shut out in this contest. Wild Shot got the lead like I hoped he would in the Blue Grass, but I'm not sure how soft the fractions really were–wouldn't have mattered either way. That was a very tough beat for Battle of Midway in the Santa Anita Derby. He ran much too well to lose. At least I grabbed a little bit of him at 64-1 in the final Derby future pool. Two more chances to come from out of the clouds–looks like I need to make them both count.
GI Arkansas Derby – I wanted to–believe me–but I just couldn't talk myself out of taking a third shot in this contest with #3 Silver Dust. He always does just enough running to sucker me in, and I thought he had a legitimate chance turning for home in the Rebel before flattening out and getting kind of lost in the lane. He's definitely got some growing up to do mentally, but maybe the addition of blinkers will wake him up. Selection: #3 Silver Dust (20-1).
GIII Lexington S. – I really did like Senior Investment last time in the Louisiana Derby, and he didn't run terribly, but I was expecting a bit more from him. It's interesting that Ken McPeek elects to return on short rest–that's an angle the conditioner does very will with in stakes. Maybe a sixteenth shorter will actually help Senior Investment's kick. I do fear there isn't a ton of pace in here, and would probably take Time to Travel or maybe No Dozing if I could afford to go with a shorter price, but I've got to play to win. Selection: #3 Senior Investment (5-1).
SHERACK – Bankroll: $5210.
Last Week – Well, none of my picks really picked up their feet last weekend–McCraken (3rd Blue Grass), Mo Town (7th Wood Memorial) & Kimbear (6th Santa Anita Derby)–but more importantly, I feel like I finally have my Derby horse now.
McCraken may have been a little too fresh for his own good after missing some training time, and he was really taken out of his game in the Blue Grass, racing much closer to the pace than he prefers. Hailing from a barn that knows how to get them to peak on a big day and returning to a track that he's thrived over in the past gives me plenty of confidence that he's the one that you want on the First Saturday in May, especially at an overlay now after suffering his first career defeat last weekend.
GI Arkansas Derby – Both of my opponents made up some ground last weekend, but I'm still in the driver seat and won't get too cute in this one. After an eventful start to his sophomore campaign, it looks like trainer Mark Casse finally has last year's 2-year-old champ Classic Empire ready to roll… As far as personal wagers go, Sonneteer won't be anywhere near the 112-1 we got on him last time, but I'll certainly be including him in my exacta/trifecta wagers once again. Selection: #2 Classic Empire (8-5).
GIII Lexington S. – With a last out breakthrough optional claiming win at Fair Grounds and a smart bullet work since, Resiliency might be getting good at the right time for the always dangerous Steve Asmussen. The dark bay, a smart debut winner at Churchill last November, could work out a perfect trip sitting just off the speed from his rail draw with Florent Geroux aboard. Selection: #1 Resiliency (6-1).
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