The TDN Belmont Preview, Presented by WinStar

This week's TDN Triple Crown feature examines the GI Belmont S. entrants listed in “likeliest winner” order.

1) WAR OF WILL (c, War Front&log=">War Front—Visions of Clarity {Ire}, by Sadler's Wells)
O-Gary Barber. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $175,000 RNA Ylg '17 KEESEP; €250,000 2yo '18 ARQMAY. Lifetime Record: GISW, 10-4-1-1, $1,491,569.
Last Start: 1st, GI Preakness S., PIM, May 18
Equineline PPs. Caulfield on War of Will.

War of Will's torqued-up tactical speed and his ability to punch back hard when encountering in-race adversity is what sets him apart from everyone else in the 12-furlong Belmont. The betting logically drills down to this GI Preakness S. winner and top-notch rival Tacitus (Tapit), but even if those two are very close in talent and stamina, this €250,000 ARQMAY War Front colt gets the edge because of his consistent ability to make his own breaks by getting out of the gate alertly, settling into high-cruise mode, and responding with an admirable reserve of power when called upon in the stretch. Trainer Mark Casse said War of Will has put on a good 40 or 50 pounds since the Preakness, and there is no shortage of speed drawn to the inside for him to target from a post nine draw. War of Will can become the first horse since Afleet Alex in 2005 to complete the Preakness-Belmont double, accomplished by just 12 other horses (excluding the 13 Triple Crown winners). That list includes Man o' War (1920), Native Dancer (1953), Nashua (1955) and Damascus (1967).

2) TACITUS (c, Tapit&hid=28277">Tapit—Close Hatches, by First Defence) O/B-Juddmonte Farms, Inc. (KY). T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 5-3-0-1, $953,000.
Last Start: 3rd, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 4
Equineline PPs.

Tacitus went straight to the top of a lot of people's Belmont S. bet lists the moment he splashed home fourth (elevated to third via DQ) in the GI Kentucky Derby. This large-framed Tapit homebred for Juddmonte got a very meaningful schooling out of that effort, breaking a stutter-step slow, checking off heels, settling, responding when cued three-eighths out, and getting fanned six wide into the lane. His pedigree is stout with stamina (by Tapit out of an Eclipse champion mare who excelled in dirt routes), and while I had early-season reservations about Tacitus being a bit too lackadaisical and untested against top-level competition, both his traffic-troubled GII Wood Memorial S. win and his Derby showing under arduous circumstances suggests he's toughening up and maturing. Another Juddmonte colorbearer, Empire Maker in 2003, was the last horse to turn the Wood-Belmont double.

3) MASTER FENCER (c, Just a Way {Jpn}–Sexy Zamurai, by Deputy Minister)
O/B-Katsumi Yoshizawa (JPN). T-Koichi Tsunoda. Lifetime Record: SP-Jpn, 7-2-2-0, $234,392.
Last Start: 6th, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 4
Equineline PPs.

Master Fencer (Jpn) figured to have no shot on paper in the Derby and was probably underlaid at 58-1. But this homebred son of Just A Way {Jpn) ran a deceptively good seventh (put up to sixth) after settling on the rail far behind the field. He was still last at the quarter pole and tried to pulse through at the fence while being driven through both mud and the traffic of stalled contenders, but once he found a seam Master Fencer uncoiled like he meant business and jockey Julien Leparoux had him gallop out past everyone except for Maximum Security (New Year's Day). “He's very easy to be around. He's a kind horse and very calm and professional. It makes my job easy,” said Leparoux. “A lot depends on the pace in front and how the track plays.”

4) SIR WINSTON (c, Awesome Again—La Gran Bailadora, by Afleet Alex)
O/B-Tracy Farmer (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $50,000 RNA Ylg '17 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 9-2-1-1, $161,773.
Last Start: 2nd, GIII Peter Pan S., BEL, May 11
Equineline PPs.

Sir Winston's form doesn't exactly leap off the past performance page, but he does have some subtly good lines that could signal a turnaround over 12 furlongs. This Awesome Again homebred is out of an Afleet Alex (2005 Belmont winner) mare, and three of his four starts in 2019 have come over nine furlongs, so the distance appears within his scope. The 100 Beyer he earned when six wide off the turn and finishing well to get second over this same surface in the GIII Peter Pan S. last month is the top speed figure among the Belmont entrants, and Sir Winston only finished four lengths behind the then-blossoming Tacitus in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Beware of this “other” Mark Casse trainee at double-digit odds.

5) SPINOFF (c, Hard Spun&log=">Hard Spun—Zaftig, by Gone West)
O/B-Wertheimer et Frere (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-0-0, $260,000.
Last Start: 18th, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 4
Equineline PPs.

“Spinoff just hated the track,” said trainer Todd Pletcher after this Hard Spun colt's next-to-last Derby run in the slop. “He didn't really want any part of it.” Spnioff was a pace presence while five wide into the first turn and down the backstretch, but soon opted out of the battle. I kind of like his better-than-it-looks GII Louisiana Derby second in which he was bumped leaving post 10, then got hooked four wide on club turn while seeking the lead. He forced the issue through legit splits, then got run down in the final sixteenth of the long Fair Grounds stretch. Pletcher has won three Belmonts (2007, 2013, 2017) while jockey Javier Castellano is seeking his first.

6) TAX (g, Arch–Toll, by Giant's Causeway)
O-R. A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Hugh Lynch & Corms Racing Stable. B-Claiborne Farm & Adele Dilschneider (KY). T-Danny Gargan. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-2-1, $326,300.
Last Start: 14th, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 4
Equineline PPs.

Tax might have been ranked a little higher on this list were it not for the concerns about his latest workout that trainer Danny Gargan voiced to Daily Racing Form last Saturday. His final pre-Belmont breeze was termed “good, but it wasn't awesome,” yet Gargan emphasized he wouldn't enter unless he “loved” how this Arch gelding came out of that workout, so apparently Tax is on the upswing. His Derby 15th (14th via DQ) is a tossout–he broke alertly, patiently held a rail spot, was only about five lengths off the lead when the field began to bunch, but had no stretch kick and reportedly didn't appreciate the sloppy kickback. A more representative race in his past performances is the Wood Memorial, in which he fought resolutely but was worn down by the imposing Tacitus when beaten 1 1/4 lengths and galloping out on even terms with the winner. His 15-1 odds make him worth a flyer in exotics.

7) INTREPID HEART (c, Tapit&hid=28277">Tapit—Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Robert E. & Lawana L. Low. B-WinStar Farm LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $750,000 2yo '18 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-0-1, $140,400.
Last Start: 3rd, GIII Peter Pan S., BEL, May 11
Equineline PPs.

This $750,000 OBSAPR Tapit gray is arriving a little late to the Triple Crown party, but at healthy double-digit odds you get the Classics-tested Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez tandem and a 2-for-3 up-and-coming colt who boasts solid speed figures, tactical speed, and a pedigree that resonates with staying power. “Intrepid Heart is clearly bred for this race,” Pletcher said. “He's by Tapit, who's had a lot of success [as a sire] in the race. He's out of a Touch Gold mare. Touch Gold won the Belmont. He's a half to Commissioner [second in the 2014 Belmont]. If you look at his pedigree, it's A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew. There's a lot of Belmont history supporting his pedigree. And, out of the three Triple Crown races, I think pedigree plays the biggest role in this one.”

8) BOURBON WAR (c, Tapit&hid=28277">Tapit—My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller)
O-Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star Stable. B-Conquest Stables (KY). T-Mark Hennig. Sales History: $410,000 Wlg '16 KEENOV; $525,000 Ylg '17 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 6-2-1-0, $202,100. Last Start: 8th, GI Preakness S., PIM, May 18
Equineline PPs.

Bourbon War strikes me as a sophomore who is still a work in progress. The blinkers will come off for the Belmont after a one-race try in the Preakness that resulted in a non-threatening eighth. As one of three Tapit-sired horses in the third leg of the Triple Crown, this $525,000 KEESEP colt is going to have to either shake the reputation that he's a pace-dependent closer or show some other tactical dimension under new jockey Mike Smith. He's winless beyond the first-level allowance condition, but don't forget that sneaky-good second in the GII Fountain of Youth S. when Bourbon War pounced into a collapsing pace scenario and did surge past the winner a jump after the wire.

9) EVERFAST (c, Take Charge Indy–Awesome Surprise, by Awesome Again)
O-Calumet Farm. B-Extern Developments (KY). T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $47,000 Ylg '17 KEEJAN. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-1-2-1, $464,805.
Last Start: 2nd, GI Preakness S., PIM, May 18
Equineline PPs.

This $47,000 KEEJAN Take Charge Indy colt has bankrolled nearly 10 times his auction price despite losing 10 straight races after breaking his maiden at first asking last August at Ellis Park. Although I'm sure his connections would like him to win another race, those are some pretty nice paydays for picking up the pieces, and Everfast is a typical Calumet Farm trainee in that he is not shielded from racing and often overachieves with an admirable grinder's style. Given his past performances, he'll likely drop far back and attempt a prolonged bid, which is exactly what Everfast did to nail second at 128-1 in the GII Holy Bull S. and second at 29-1 in the GI Preakness.

10) JOEVIA (c, Shanghai Bobby–Peace Process, by War Front)
O-Michael & Jeff Fazio. B-Ikhana Farm (KY). T-Gregory Sacco. Sales History: $34,000 RNA Wlg '16 KEENOV; $50,000 Ylg '17 FTKJUL; $32,000 2yo '18 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $131,600.
Last Start: 1st, Long Branch S., MTH, May 12
Equineline PPs.

Joevia figures to be the longest shot in the field and looks like sacrificial speed pegged down at the rail. Although gunning it to the front is not as imperative in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont as it is in other major stakes, this $32,000 OBSAPR Shanghai Bobby colt is coming off a wire job in the slop going 1 1/16 miles against only three other entrants in a watered-down $95,000 stakes at Monmouth. He attempted to make the pace but caused dangerous crowding into the first turn of the Wood Memorial and got DQ'd from seventh to last for that trouble.