By Bill Finley
Saturday's GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby is the event we've all been waiting for as the undefeated Mohaymen (Tapit) will meet unbeaten 2015 champion juvenile male Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the type of one-versus-two showdown that never seems to happen on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby. It's not the deepest prep ever run but no one can remember one with more intrigue, one that could actually be a truer test of 3-year-old supremacy than the Kentucky Derby itself, where luck and trips so often play a major role. Barring the unforeseen, the race will also decide who will be the favorite in the Derby. The weekend also includes the GIII Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral S. at Turfway Park.
1. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4
Next Start: GI Florida Derby., GP, Apr. 2
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
Why Mohaymen will beat Nyquist (Uncle Mo): He ran a “1” on the Thoro-Graph sheets in the GII Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S., and Nyquist has yet to run that fast…Of the two, he's a sure thing when it comes to getting nine furlongs, while there are still some questions in that area when it comes to Nyquist…Mohaymen takes your breath away every time he runs. With Nyquist, that's not really the case…This is his home track, and Nyquist had to ship all the way from California to run over an unfamiliar surface…He's already won at a mile-and-an-eighth, while Nyquist has never even tried the distance…We probably haven't seen the best of him yet…Kiaran McLaughlin is one helluva trainer.
2. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8
Next Start: GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Why Nyquist will beat Mohaymen (Tapit): He's running for a $1-million bonus and Mohaymen is not. That may mean Nyquist will be 100% cranked up, while Mohaymen could only be at 95% …Nyquist ran a 101 Beyer in the GII San Vicente S. Mohaymen has never run better than a 95…In what is essentially a match race, Nyquist should be in front of Mohaymen early, giving him the advantage…He's proven to be a fighter, while Mohaymen has never been involved in any kind of battle on the racetrack…He shipped into Keeneland to win the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, so shipping to Gulfstream Park shouldn't be a big deal…Until proven otherwise, he's still the champ…This is not conditioner Doug O'Neill's first rodeo, as he sent out dual Classic hero I'll Have Another (Flower Alley) to wins in the 2012 GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness S. en route to champion sophomore male honors.
3. DANZING CANDY (c, Twirling Candy—Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3
O-Halo Farms, Jim & Diane Bashor. B-Halo Farms. T-Clifford W. Sise, Jr.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Danzing Candy
'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy worked five furlongs in :58 3/5 (1/54) at Santa Anita, last Saturday , but that might not have played into the game plan of trainer Clifford Sise Jr., who doesn't want to go into the GI Kentucky Derby with a one-dimensional speed horse. “I didn't want to go quite that fast,” Sise said after the work. “I wanted to go in like a minute and change, but he got some air in him today.” Sise got his trainer's license in 1971 but has never had a GI Kentucky Derby starter. He finished fourth in last year's GI Santa Anita Derby with Prospect Park (Tapit), but that one missed the Kentucky Derby after coming down with a high white blood cell count.
4. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 2nd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA; 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit
How will bettors react when Mor Spirit and 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy) have their rematch in the GI Santa Anita Derby? Santa Anita linemaker Jon White has been tackling that question and believes that Mor Spirit will be the favorite. But he says it's a very tough call. “I'm inclined to make Mor Spirit the favorite because he's been the favorite in every one of his races,” White said. “He was beaten by Danzing Candy in the San Felipe but he still ran well. If he had had a lackluster race I definitely would make Danzing Candy the favorite. The other thing I have to consider was that Danzing Candy was 5-1 in the San Felipe, which, to me, was shocking. He was a real buzz horse beforehand. For him to have been 5-1, versus 8-5 for Mor Spirit, that's a big gap to close.”
5. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables. T-Steve Asmussen.
Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner
Gun Runner is never the popular pick. After winning the GII Veterans Ford Risen Star S., where he was 5-1, he faced many of the same horses in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby, yet was sent off at 7-2. Once again, he came through, and did so with authority. Even though Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) keeps having bad trips, it is Gun Runner who has clearly established himself as the best of the bunch that have taken the Louisiana route to the GI Kentucky Derby. A solid horse, is he good enough to beat those who are getting more hype, like Mohaymen (Tapit) and Nyquist (Uncle Mo)? Racing manager David Fiske said that, while unlikely, Gun Runner could have one more prep before the Derby.
6. CUPID (c, Tapit—Pretty 'n Smart, by Beau Genius)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith. B-JKG Thoroughbreds. T-Bob Baffert
Sales history: $900,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 19
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
While trainer Bob Baffert has been insanely good in the GII Rebel S., he's just been merely good in the GI Arkansas Derby. When Cupid won this year's Rebel, it was the fifth time over the last six years that Baffert has won the race. He's only won the Arkansas Derby twice, with subsequent Triple Crown hero and Horse of the Year American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) in 2015 and Bodemeister (Empire Maker) in 2012. He sent two of his Rebel winners, not to the Arkansas Derby, but the GI Santa Anita Derby, where Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday) and future GI Preakness S. winner Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) raced next. Another Rebel winner, The Factor (War Front) flamed out in the Arkansas Derby, finishing seventh. Afterward, he was turned into a sprinter.
7. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini—Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7
O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 5
Next Start: GI Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
'TDN Rising Star' Shagaf is a talented horse, but still has a lot of obstacles in his way. He's yet to have run against a really good adversary. If he makes it to the GI Kentucky Derby, that will be just his fifth lifetime start and experience does matter in the Derby. He's yet to post the kind of eye-popping speed figures you normally need to win the Kentucky Derby. His best Beyer is a mere 88 and he ran just an 87 in his win in the GIII Gotham S. while bearing out in the stretch. Just some food for thought, as he awaits his biggest assignment to date in the GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Apr. 9.
8. DESTIN (c, Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9
O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC. B-James C. Weigel & Taylor Made Stallions Inc. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Star: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis, TAM, Feb. 13
Next Start: Undecided
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
It's interesting to note that Todd Pletcher may run Destin off an eight-week layoff in the GI Kentucky Derby. That's a typical way to come into many big races, even Breeders' Cup events. But trainers still seem inclined to prep their horses in close proximity of Derby Day. Should Destin win off an eight-week layoff, that could be the first step toward changing conventional wisdom when it comes to getting horses ready for the Derby. No trainer is more influential than Pletcher and if he pulls this off, you can be assured that more trainers will try it in the future.
9. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 11
O-Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Trainer Keith Desormeaux admits he didn't exactly like the way Exaggerator finished up in the GII San Felipe S. The horse not only couldn't get by front-runner and 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy), but he was weakening late and was passed by Mor Spirit (Eskendereya). “If he doesn't finish up this time [in the GI Santa Anita Derby], we'll have to consider whether or not he's a mile-and-a-quarter horse,” Desormeaux said. “I still think he is and I still think he'll be very dangerous in the Santa Anita Derby.” Exaggerator's longest win came in the GIII Delta Downs Jackpot at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, but that race may be an aberration since it's run in a bull ring.
10. ZULU (c, Bernardini–Temporada, by Summer Squall)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 12
O-Stonestreet Stables LLC, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith. B-Ron Magers & Robert Marcocchio. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $900,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 2nd, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9?
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Nobody is better at managing a horse than Todd Pletcher, but his decision to pass the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby with 'TDN Rising Star' Zulu could be something he will regret. While he would have to face undefeated stars Mohaymen (Tapit) and 2-year-old champ Nyquist (Uncle Mo), he's also eligible for a $1-million bonus should he win, courtesy of Fasig-Tipton. That means, for him, a Florida Derby win would yield a payday of $1.6 million, or what you would win by running in a $2,666,000 race. That, of course, is larger than the $2-million purse offered for the GI Kentucky Derby. Instead, Zulu will possibly go in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S., a much easier spot than the Hallandale oval's signature event. The lightly raced horse could be on the improve, and he'll need to be in top form to beat Nyquist and/or Mohaymen on Derby Day.
11. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)
Mar. 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10
O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss.
Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs
Probably not fair to move Mo Tom down since he never had a chance in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby after getting stopped cold twice in the stretch, but the fact remains that he has now lost two straight. Though livid after the race at Corey Lanerie, trainer Tom Amoss said he will not fire the jockey. If nothing else, he's the hard luck horse on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby and because of his penchant for getting into trouble, we have no idea how good he is.
12. WHITMORE (g, Pleasantly Perfect–Melody's Spirit, by Scat Daddy)
March 23 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
O-Robert V. LaPenta, Harry T. Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stable. B-John Liviakis. T-Ron Moquett
Last Start: 2nd, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 19
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Whitmore enters the TDN Top 12 not because of anything he did, but because someone had to move up after we dropped Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini) after his poor showing in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby. He's the type of horse that always seems to come around on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby. He tries hard, is consistent, knocks on the door, but is clearly a cut or two below the very best of his class. His only two wins have come at six furlongs, but that is misleading since he ran second in two 1 1/16-mile affairs–the Feb. 15 GIII Southwest S. and the GII Rebel S. Mar. 19.
Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.
ON THE BUBBLE:
Airoforce (Colonel John): A big run in the GIII Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral S. will have confections pointing to the 'Run for the Roses.'
Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway): Good horse, probably too early to give up on him, but he really didn't have it in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby.
Collected (City Zip): Can a City Zip possibly win at a mile-and-a-quarter on the dirt?
Creator (Tapit): Could turn out to be a really good horse, just don't know if he can improve so fast that he'll be a serous GI Kentucky Derby contender.
Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): Unraced since January, has been out of sight out of mind, but has a chance to jump right back into the picture if he runs well in his next start, which might be the G1 TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial at the Big A.
Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini): After a dull effort in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby, he drops way down from the Top 12 to the “Bubble.”
Lani (Tapit): Enters the fray for the GI Kentucky Derby with his win in the GII UAE Derby over previously undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Polar River (Congrats). Of course, we have no idea what he beat.
Malibu Sunset (Bernardini): The 'TDN Rising Star' worked four furlongs in :48 3/5 last Friday, but Baffert's reluctance to pick out a spot for him is puzzling.
Outwork (Uncle Mo): By Uncle Mo, lightly raced, improving, trained by Pletcher. Lots of upside here.
Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): Which 'News' shows up in the GI Arkansas Derby, the star of the GIII Southwest S. or the horse who was just ok in the GII Rebel?
Swipe (Birdstone): Aiming for the GIII Coolmore Lexington S., he may yet make the Derby.
Tom's Ready (More Than Ready): Stablemate of Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) entered the Derby picture with a surprising second-place finish in the GII Louisiana Derby at 30-1.
Click here to visit the Derby Top 12 section of our website, complete with video past performances, Equibase PPs, and Thoro-Graph sheets.
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