Oppenheim: Summing Up

This week's Sales Ticker tells us that over $466 million in horses were sold at 2015 second-half calendar year mixed sales (“first-half” mixed sales, held in January and February, are considered separately as they carried 2014 matings). This is down $26 million (5%) from last year's corresponding sales, and about $60 million (11%) from the 2013 recent peak. As you'll see from the bottom table of the Sales Ticker, the 2013 mixed sales had increased by a massive $145 million (38%) from 2012, continuing the recovery in the North American and European thoroughbred markets which had really manifested itself with a $178-million rise at the 2013 NA/EU yearling sales.

The November 30 Weekly Sales Ticker showed us that the 2015 market for foals (weanlings), not including this week's Arqana sale), was up by $6 million over last year, and by over $22 million from 2013. So it's not the market for foals which is down from 2013, it's the sales of everything else, especially broodmares and broodmare prospects. Brianne is tallying all the figures as we speak, but it looks like the mixed sales, subtracting foals, could be down by 20%, or $80 million, from around $400 million in 2013. To some extent the drop will represent the number of top-class fillies and mares and fillies available. But there is little doubt that those which were available did not command the prices corresponding offerings have in the last couple of years. The fact that only one of the five mares in foal to Dubawi offered at Tattersalls last Tuesday actually sold is an indicator of this, and other indicators suggest that the values of 'like-to-like' top-end fillies and mares were off by 20%-25% this year.

On the other hand, what we refer to as the broad commercial 'middle range', say from 200,000 – 500,000 and maybe even 700,000 (whichever currency) remained very competitive; there were plenty of people with money to spend who couldn't spend it–it was that competitive in the commercial ranges. This tier of the market is actually plenty strong. We know the bottom end is expanding more quickly than the number of buyers to absorb these, and it's the weakness at the top end which affects the grosses and averages most. It remains very competitive in the middle, but a weak top is bad news because commercial breeders and sellers, to a great extent, depend on the 'home run' horse to make the difference between profit and loss, and treading water.

A couple of mares in foal to Juddmonte's Kingman (Invincible Spirit), Europe's top 3-year-old miler of 2014, including the €900,000 sale topper Embellishment, put him in the lead over Coolmore's 2014 G1 Epsom Derby winner Australia (Galileo) among European covering sires which stood their first seasons in 2015. Kingman has now had nine mares sell in foal, for an average of $428,541 (click here); Australia has had 10 mares sell in foal, for a very healthy $291,424 average himself. Just four first-year stallions on each side of The Pond had first mares in foal average over $90,000; besides Kingman and Australia, Europe's number three and four on average were: Charm Spirit (Invincible Spirit), who stood at Tweenhills in England this year but moves to the Haras De Bonneval in France for 2016–he had 12 mares in foal average $131,991; and Coolmore's No Nay Never, the 2013 G1 Prix Morny winner by this year's new commercial star, Scat Daddy. No Nay Never had three mares sell in foal, which averaged $90,165.

Among North American first-year covering sires, the highest covering sire average belonged to Airdrie's Cairo Prince, the 2014 GII Holy Bull winner from Pioneerof The Nile's first crop, who averaged $231,437 for eight mares sold in foal, though 86% of his combined in-foal gross belonged to Belle Jolie, the dam of GI Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Runhappy (Super Saver), who sold in foal to Cairo Prince at Keeneland for $1.6 million. Three Chimneys' 2013 Champion 3-Year-Old Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) had nine mares in foal average $143,888 (click here). Lane's End's Noble Mission (Galileo), Frankel's brother, had 17 mares in foal average $93,470, in a virtual dead-heat with Coolmore Ashford's 2013 GI Wood Memorial and Haskell S. winner Verrazano (More Than Ready), who had 13 mares in foal average $93,307.

A total of 14 NA/EU (eight NA, six EU) stallions with three or more foals selling from their first crops posted averages over $65,000 at the various sales. Leading the pack was Coolmore's Declaration of War (War Front), who stood in Ireland in 2014, then moved to Kentucky this year. His 13 foals sold averaged $147,913. Darley's Dawn Approach (New Approach) and Coolmore's Camelot (Montjeu) finished in a virtual dead-heat for second among European first-year weanling sires: Dawn Approach had 20 foals sell for an average of $114,492, while Camelot had 16 sell for an average of $114,364. Intello (Galileo), who stood two seasons at Cheveley Park near Newmarket, but now moves the the Haras Du Quesnay for 2016, had eight sell from eight offered, for an average of $100,589. Gestut Fahrhof's Maxios (Monsun), arguably Germany's first-ever intentionally 'commercial' stallion, had 12 sell from 12 offered for an average of $79,131 off only a €10,000 stud fee; and Darley Dalham Hall's Farhh (Pivotal) had six sell from six offered, for an average of $69,037.

In the U.S., the Freshman Weanling Sire leader was Claiborne's 2013 GI Kentucky Derby winner Orb (Malibu Moon), who had 16 weanlings from his first crop average $120,312, with an impressive $120,000 median (click here). Darley Jonabell's (and Arrowfield's) globetrotting Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux) was second, with nine foals averaging $110,777–his first yearlings will be featured at Australia's Magic Millions Sale next month–followed by WinStar's Paynter (Awesome Again), who had nine sell for an average of $101,636. Taylor Made's Graydar (Unbridled's Song) had 16 average $93,812), followed by Calumet's Oxbow (Awesome Again)–a three-quarter brother to Paynter–who had five foals average $89,000. Adena Springs' Point Of Entry (Dynaformer) had three foals average $81,673, followed by Hill'n'Dale's Violence (Medaglia D'Oro), who had 24 foals average $73,875; and Coolmore-Ashford's Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday), who had 21 foals average $67,571. Both Graydar, with a $77,500 median, and Violence, with a $75,000 median, registered medians of 5x their entering $15,000 stud fees, which is always an indicator that a stallion is siring consistently good-looking, commercial foals.

Next Column: We are back to Wednesdays for the rest of the year, with out first set of 'value picks' coming next week. Please stay tuned!

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected] (please cc TDN management at [email protected]). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.