Stakeholders Optimistic Ahead of Breeze-Ups

The first juvenile contest of the year occurred at Saint-Cloud on Mar. 17 and more are on the horizon, signaling that the 'flat season' is getting back into gear. Perhaps the greatest sign that spring is well and truly upon us, however, are the imminent breeze-up sales, and with the February breeding stock sales effectively counting as an extension of the November and December sales, the breeze-ups will provide an early look at what the bloodstock market looks like in 2019.

Not that we should expect any great revelations; the breeze-ups will serve as a reaction to what happened in the market overall last year, as we learned all too well 12 months ago. The complete bottoming out of the middle and lower markets in 2018 was the result of the supply of horses-a response to general overproduction–far exceeding demand. After a few years of thriving business, most of the breeze-up sales increased their catalogue sizes in 2018. The sales companies learned the hard way that there was simply no market for a significant slice of the horses, and clearance rates plunged.

But, the beauty of trying something is that we can learn from it, and the three breeze-up catalogues that have thus far been released-Tattersalls Ireland Ascot, Goffs UK and Tattersalls Craven-have numbers back in line with 2017 figures. Bonus incentives have also been added for both Ascot and Craven.

The 2019 breeze-up season begins like it did last year, with the Tattersalls Ireland Ascot sale on Apr. 3. Richard Pugh, Tattersalls Ireland's director of horses in training sales, admitted that the jump from 99 catalogued to 146 last year was a major contributor to the fact that just half the horses through the ring were sold, but he pointed out that it was a perfect storm of unfortunate events that led to the dismal trade.

“Trade wasn't exceptional in any event, but running alongside that we were, as luck would have it, in the middle of Easter week,” Pugh said. “There was another breeze-up sale [Goffs UK] two working days after our sale, and there was weather the likes of which Noah would have had to build an Ark for. The size of our catalogue had grown and as we know now demand hadn't grown with it.

“As we left last year we were aware of a number of factors we could implement to ensure it wouldn't happen a second time,” he added. “Some of them were within our control and some weren't; I said to our team with regards to the weather it might be as bad, but it absolutely couldn't be worse.”

In a new incentive, the 90 juveniles catalogued for Ascot next week are in line to take home a £100,000 bonus should they be able to win at Royal Ascot in roughly 75 days after their turn in the ring.

“We brought in the bonus to remind people that the focus of Ascot is precociousness,” Pugh said. “If you really want a meaningful, fair and realistic amount of time for a new trainer to manage the new 2-year-old they've just bought, 76 days [to Royal Ascot] is in that bracket. I do believe the bonus has focused the vendors' minds, and our inspectors tell us it has. A Royal Ascot winner is nice, but £100,000 is a very nice addition.”

Having readjusted the factors under the firm's control, Pugh said he is “surprisingly hopeful” heading into the breeze-up season.

“Being first, I suppose you're always waiting to see what the market is going to react to,” he said. “I do think this year though as a percentage cut of the catalogue we might be the biggest. We really have been quite serious about making sure we get back to where Ascot sits well. The numbers are enough to bring people to the venue, but not too many that vendors should feel that we've oversupplied it. We have a good date-we're not compromised by any significant dates on the calendar. We're the earliest breeze-up by a couple weeks and we get first crack at it with a nice number.

“There are an awful lot of things in our favour this year. I'm surprisingly hopeful from where I was last year; we were all a little downbeat about breeze-ups but I'm very hopeful we can have a nice sale and keep consolidation the focus at Ascot.”

It seems that consolidation has also been a focus among vendors.

“The consignors have bought fewer [yearlings] in general-not all, but in general, us included,” said John Cullinan of Horse Park Stud. “We've dropped from 24 or 25 down to 16 or so, so we're going to fewer sales and we have fewer of them.

“So far the catalogues I've seen, there's been a tightening up of numbers taken in by the sales companies. That tightening up needed to happen; I hope it has the desired effect when we get to the sales.”

Con Marnane, who operates under Bansha House Stables, is in the same boat. “We're down a little bit on numbers but we've gone up on quality. We didn't buy horses just for the sake of buying horses; we bought horses that we thought were going to be good, tough, hardy racehorses. That was in our heads the whole time. I'm really delighted I did that, because when you get up in the morning now and go down to the yard, there's a bounce in your step. You really enjoy those good horses.”

Cullinan said it was a clash of numerous factors that resulted in last season's tricky breeze-up market.

“A couple of things came together,” he said. “I don't think it was specifically a breeze-up thing; I think it was more in relation to the economy and outside factors. The first sales of the year were the breeze-ups, and the negativity that was about in the spring last year kind of carried through to the autumn.”

Cullinan noted that the very nature of the breeze-ups is much more selective.

“Breeze-up sales are a niche market; people don't keep their yards empty all winter to stock them up with breezers; they're a way of topping up,” he said. “The bulk of your intake of 2-year-olds for the coming season would be bought as yearlings and they'd be topped up with breezers. Brexit left a lot of uncertainty as well, so there were a lot of things happening at the same time.

“Another factor was the big increase in numbers at the sales. There were 1,200 horses offered. It could never really absorb those kinds of numbers. Clearance rates were very tough. We were working at 50% to 60% more or less through the season, and Goresbridge raised it to well over 80%. That brought up the average but that didn't fully reflect how it felt on the ground; it was tough going.”

Osarus stages a single-session breeze-up sale on Apr. 11, after which comes Tattersalls's Craven sale on Apr. 16 and 17. While not nearly as dramatically as at Ascot, numbers are down for Craven, too-the catalogue has dipped to 147 from 172, bringing it back into line with numbers from 2015 through 2017. Tattersalls Marketing Director Jimmy George said the firm's Guineas breeze-up sale, which takes place early May on the eve of the G1 2000 Guineas meeting, would likely see a cut as well.

Tattersalls also introduces a bonus for Craven-sold horses: for a £1,000 entry fee, Craven graduates are eligible to win a £15,000 bonus should they win a class two, three or four 2-year-old maiden or novice race in Britain or an open 2-year-old maiden in Ireland. The qualifying races, of which there will be around 300, begin just four weeks after the Craven sale. The bonus is modeled after Tattersalls's £25,000 October Book 1 bonus, which George said has stimulated plenty of interest in that sale.

“In the Craven breeze-up sale there are 147 2-year-olds that could win £20,000-plus [bonus and prize-money] if they win their maiden, and if they're Plus 10 bonus eligible, that's another £10,000,” he said. “And there are six lots in the sale that are Book 1 bonus eligible as well, so they get a minimum of £40,000 [both Tattersalls bonuses] plus their prize-money if they win a qualifying maiden. There is a reason that strikes a chord with connections, because that more than pays a year's training fees.”

It is a tall task to raise significantly the middle and lower markets at sales without healthy purses for owners to compete for, and George concurred, “Prize-money is so, so important to the overall health of the sport. I don't think that can be overstated. Recent events in Britain in particular with the horsemen's response to the cuts in prize-money levels of the Arena racecourses have made it very apparent that prize-money levels in this country are arousing strong feelings, and perfectly justifiably so. We're not saying for a moment that introducing schemes like the October Book 1 bonus or the Craven breeze-up scheme are going to change the face of British racing, but they are our best response to try to address this particular issue and to try to encourage people to think that owning a racehorse remains a great way to enjoy their leisure money.”

Goffs UK's breeze-up sale moves to a slightly later slot on this year's calendar on Apr. 25. While last year's figures represented an improvement from Ascot's sale four days earlier-a 76% clearance rate as opposed to 50%-they were still a far cry from 2017, when 90% had cleared. Goffs UK Managing Director Tony Williams, however, said he is “really optimistic” about this year's sale; the company has zeroed in on quality and brought the catalogue back down to 160 from 207.

“Undoubtedly, the breeze market everywhere last year was very sticky,” Williams said. “There was a lot more in respect to numbers offered everywhere; each sale was bombarded with entries. This year, I know with Goffs UK we've consciously gone out and tightened up the numbers. Make no mistake, there was an industry push for that. We tried-and I know we have achieved-to strengthen the catalogue in respect of the sire profile, the physicals and of course pedigree. I feel that we've lifted our entire catalogue.

“Our vendors were really conscious of the need for quality and I'd say across the board rather than vendors concentrating on numbers, they've probably gone a little further up the ladder with respect to what they were buying and that shows in the quality of our catalogue. We're really optimistic about this sale this year, for all the right reasons.”

A few years ago Goffs UK began nominating all its 2-year-olds to the Scandinavian Classics, something Williams said has helped the middle market.

“We have a good buying base out of Scandinavia, and that's another incentive we put in a couple years ago, entering the entire catalogue in the Scandinavian Classic series,” he said. “That's certainly helped strengthen the middle market and we're really pleased with how that's working.”

Also fueling confidence ahead of the breeze-up season could be the performance of graduates on the racecourse. Over 50% of breeze-up graduates from the last two years are winners, and over 30% of those are 2-year-old winners. And while Group 1-winning 2-year-olds like The Wow Signal (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) and La Pelosa (Ire) (Dandy Man {Ire}) are generally the breeze-up poster children, the 2-year-old sales have proven equally adept at turning out top-class 3-year-olds and older horses like G1 Gold Cup winner Trip To Paris (GB) (Champs Elysees {GB}), G1 Prix du Jockey Club winner The Grey Gatsby (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) and last year's G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches winner Teppal (Fr) (Camacho {GB}). Arqana breeze-up graduate War Of Will (War Front) is one of the favourites for the GI Kentucky Derby, while Divine Image (Scat Daddy), who sold during the same session as War Of Will, won the G3 UAE Oaks last month and could have more Classics in her sights in either Europe or America.

In 2015, Cullinan founded the Breeze-Up Consignors Association with fellow consignors Brendan Holland and Willie Browne as a means to raise awareness about the exploits of juvenile sale graduates and to quash some of the negative press about the sales.

“We felt a few years ago that there were some misconceptions and a bit of negativity about breeze-up horses that needed addressing, and also that the success of breeze-up horses wasn't recognized,” Cullinan said. “So we set about trying to allay some of those perceptions.

“The first thing we did was get some statistical research done and it proved to us what we always felt, that breeze-up purchases measure favourably with the general population. The strike rate, consistency, soundness and ability held up well and in some cases surpassed [the general population]. The average cost of a breezer tends to be less than the premier yearlings, which wasn't necessarily recognised by the buying public.

“It [the association] was just a self-help scheme and we believe it has had an impact,” Cullinan added. “It was hard to believe it when the sales were on last year, but certainly the feedback from the trainers and agents is that it has helped them explain to potential racehorse owners that it's as good a way of buying a racehorse as any. We feel that we add value to the yearling; we reveal more in terms of ability, soundness, action, wind. It is our way of adding value to the product but in doing so we're exposing the bad ones unfortunately too. You have to take the good with the bad.”

Those that make the breeze-ups happen seem to have done just that, expressed resilience and taken the good with the bad, and there is an overriding sense of hopeful optimism heading into the 2019 season.